There is likely to be a massive bank run after they open up again and seeing how only bitcoin are missing, they have limited coins available to handle the withdrawels (unless they start buying them with the fiat they hold, which is possible as also fiat holdings get a haircut). Let alone potential law suits and bankrupcy around the corner.. get those funds out..
you are right.. its maths
imagine the exchange had (simplified numbers for demo only)
$400k held in bitcoin
$200k held in altcoins
$400k held in dollar
totals $1m combined holdings (simplified numbers for demo only)
now imagine 36% of $1m total (combining of funds to spread the loss) was lost.
yet we know it was not other funds just bitcoin lost.. so that means $360k of only bitcoins are gone!!
thats basically most of the real bitcoin reserves ($400k holdings, $360k loss = only $40k bitcoin (10%) left in reserves )
those bitcoin customers which initially counted up as $400k total holdings were told they had $400k with 36% loss.. meaning they are WRONGLY being told that there solvent balance of 64%, which logically accounts to $256k of bitcoin.. when actually there is only $40k of bitcoin in the pot.
in simple terms $360k bitcoins LOST of $400k. bfx is saying to bitcoin holders, that they are solvent of bitcoins to a tune of $256k, yet physically only have $40k(in this demo)
they cannot magic the other $212k of bitcoin into existence out of thin air.
and that missing $212k is not even part of the 36% theft.. but the missing bitcoin of the "solvent balance, that has been offset by alts and dollar..
and needs to have bitfinex buy bitcoins on other exchanges to cover just that 64% solvent balance
so ofcourse there will be a bank run while bitcoin holders owed $256k(the 64% in my demo), try to fight to withdrawal the $40k bitcoin left in a few days.
as it will take alot longer for bitfinex to try to get the other $212k(demo number) from other exchanges.
in short (my demo amounts)
$40k actual reserves= circle hole 1inch diameter
$256k solvent balance = square peg 6inch wide
even after this.. if bitfinex manages to sort out the solvent part by obtaining bitcoin from other exchanges.. they then have to work on the 36% loss