so it would take 32 years (or 16 assuming 0.2% avg fee) to pay back. Of course it's likely the volume will go up, however BTC price will do the same
Therefor I think it's way better to simply buy BTC.
If you simply buy BTC then for you to profit, the price of BTC needs to increase. However it is possible that BTC will fall by the wayside and some altcoin will reach the level of success that many think BTC will have. If you buy shares in bitstamp (or any other exchange), then that exchange simply needs to allow for trading in that altcoin, and have heavy trading volume in that altcoin for it to be successful.
Bitfinex is not worth $200MM valuation. This is self explanatory.
With Bitfinex's BFX tokens trading at 0.525, the valuation is closer to $100 MM
Bitfinex made over
$6 $7 MM in income last year, and
$7$6 MM in income through July of this year.
I would not say that the valuation of Bitfinex is all that outrageous. The high level of debt the company has might be a concern though.
$6MM income, is that revenue or net profit?
Even assuming its net profit, $6MM on a $200MM valuation (the fact their debt tokens are selling cheaper than face value does not diminish the valuation they have put on it) is beyond obscene (3% yearly growth). They are already a market leader (there will be no quick growth from here on out), still huge risk of failure (regulatory, crippling debt, terrible 5 forces situation etc) on top of a management team that has proven itself to be incompetent. This is a very pricey investment for the amount of risk involved.
They should be looking a valuation closer to $50MM.
In 2015, Bitfinex had $9.349 MM in revenue, 2.322 MM in expenses, and net income of $7.027 MM; in 2016 through July, they had $8.017 MM in revenue, $2.000 MM in expenses and a net income of $6.017 MM, which was on track to be roughly $10 MM in income for the year. (It looks like I may have previously gotten the last year and YTD through July figures mixed up).
On a YoY basis, both revenue, and net income have grown by double digits from last year.
If a potential investor wanted to buy equity in Bitfinex, they could purchase BFX tokens at a discount, and convert those BFX tokens into Bitfinex (or the entity that is actually selling shares on Bnktothefuture), giving an effective valuation of closer to $100 MM. If an investor wanted to buy a large amount of shares, does not already own BFX tokens, then their buying of BFX tokens would likely push up their effective valuation because the price of the BFX tokens would likely increase.
Bitfinex could potentially increase their revenue/income by introducing new products, for example, I have heard them talking about offering deliverable options, and new trading pairs that generates high trading volumes.
In regards to your valuation estimate, an appropriate valuation is a conclusion that needs to be made by an investor considering to invest.
If you take these numbers and do a discounted cash flow on this and assume even just 5% growth per year with 2% growth into perpetuity, with a 15% cost of capital (probably either low or high), one could argue that this 2% stake is worth
at best just $1.4mm. 5% growth is probably adventurous at this point without further cryptocurrency expansion, and a 15% WACC is probably a bit low for a company that operates in such a grey area, legally speaking. I'd wager there aren't many banks or financial institutions willing to give BitFinex a loan at market rates.
Of course, that $1.4mm is assuming there isn't any debt or preferred / convertible shares that we don't know about.
That's honestly thing I take most issue with - all of these companies are assuming that just because we invest in bitcoin and we invest online that we don't need to see detailed financials and other information that normal investors would receive without a second thought. Bitstamp should really be putting out a presentation or something to try and entice investors