Topic: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012 (Read 14770 times)

at current prices there must be an influx of 1,89 million $ per day if all mined BTC are sold immediately...
after the block reward change only 945k $ per day would be needed in order to maintain the price.

Therefore I completely agree with you that a BTC price increase is basically the lock of the century
(assuming that the price doesn´t reach new heights well before the block reward change or some major
event like a flaw in the bitcoin protocol or something similar)

thank you guys!

I'm eagerly counting down to the block reward halving with http://cryptocoinstats.com/supplytracker.php?s=tt

LTC: 1 year, 3 months, 7 days, 21 hours, and 43 minutes    
BTC: 2 years, 2 months, 25 days, 17 hours, and 30 minutes

I anticipate large price increases like there was with Bitcoin.

http://bitcoinclock.com/
Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-18 03:57:50 UTC (116 weeks, 5 days, 17 hours 30 min) from now
<2.24 years from this moment reward halves

where do I find the information at what block number the decrease should happen? thank you anyways for your help

There is no exact date. But look up at what block it happens and then divide by the recent averaged block time (lets say over a couple of months). If the hashrate maintains the rate of increase then the date that you get will be close to the actual date.
 

what is the exact date for the next change of block rewards?
I know it is in (late?) 2016, but would like to know the exact date.

What do you mean by, 'has the market priced all this in'.

agreed

There is an argument that all mined coins are sold: every mined coin must fulfil someone's demand, be it a buyer or the miner itself. So even miners who keep the coins are buying less than they otherwise would have—the mined coins are being sold to themselves.

This means that every mined coin either increases the supply (by sale on the market) or reduces the demand (by fulfilling the miner's own demand). So the amount of coins mined is a big deal! The question then becomes, has the market priced all this in?

I am convinced mining puts a lot of downward pressure on bitcoin prices. I think most have to sell what they mine to cover costs.

So when the block reward halved, the downward pressure was cut in half.

Current estimate is August but, depending on the increasing of hashing, it could be July (even the end of June).

When the pricing of the next halving will start to creep in the price we will start to see the real fireworks.
The current inflation rates of USD and BTC are in favor of USD (6% year inflation against 11% year inflation for BTC) and the price is driven by adoption (more users, more uses, better features).
When the BR drop to 12.5 BTC/block, the internal inflation rate of the BTC will be around 4.5% (and surely no more than 5.5% as the hashing would need to increase 20% every 12 days).

My understanding of economics and politics tell me the Fed and other Central Banks (CBs) like the ECB, BoJ, BoC can not reduce the printing of new currency under the 6% year (and probably can not go under 10% for  an extended time period). If they do so, they get an economic implosion by bank's defaults and massive deflationary depression. No politician and no central banker will want this under his watch, so they will delay it knowing they will no pay the cost of delaying the resolution of the crisis.

As we see increasing inflation in the monetary mass and credit deflation, bitcoin will become increasingly appetible to economic actors.
When Bitcoin will be inflating slower than USD, its exchange rate will soar continuously as people exchange increasing quantity of USD for BTC and give back their USD to banks to pay back their debts with a devaluing currency.

Halving in August 2016 if things keep going the way they are.

120,000 more blocks or so to go.

It will be here before we know it.

Definitely just a reason to bubble.
This was public knowledge and should have been well priced in long before we got to it. The next halving is a ways away, so it has little influence over price as of yet, but it will eventually cause a boom as long as Bitcoin doesn't die first.
NO, I'm not saying Bitcoin is doomed, just that a lot can happen in 2 years so you don't know.

Actually it's interesting that previous halving coincided with a price bump that eventually leaded to an April bubble.

Is it a mere coincidence? A reason or an excuse for a bubble?

yeah, thought that would be funny.

+1

Why the bump?

This is an old, obsolete thread.

Next halving, to 12.5 BTC, is not due until late 2015 or early 2016.

Bump

Thanks for the advice  Btw I like your signature!

Don't get so worked up. You'll just increase your blood pressure and die early.

Sorry... I don't have time to provide citations.

Imagine that every person in the world generates an address every month, which is preety conservative. Because RIPLIB160 offers 160 bits of entropy, a single address has 2^160 possible values at maximum. This means that after 1461501637330902918203684832716283019655932542976 (2^160) addresses are generated, the next address is guarenteed to be a collision.

Assume that thus far, 0 addresses have been generated and the world's population is 7 billion. Assume the world's population increases by 1% every year. Therefore, the formula for amount of addresses generated each year is:
And the forumla for cumalative addresses, by summation of a power series, is:
It is easy to verify that in 8155 years, a collision will occur even without anyone trying to make one.

This post is tounge-in-cheek, please do not try to correct it. There is an assumption in here I would never under normal circumstances make, so it is not necessary to point out the major flaws in this analysis. Let the other people figure it out for themselves.