I don't understand this metric, what is it supposed to show?
Your estimated transactions does make an attempt to guess what the change transactions are and remove those from the transaction volume, but if I send coins back and forth all day between two wallets I could inflate your estimated transactions counts fairly easily.
BitcoinDays Destroyed would instead know that those transfers back and forth were from recent coins, and thus those transfers would have little impact on the BDD metric, following the initial spend. So what BDD describes is how much spending is from older coins. Well, more specifically, hopefully BDD trends will help to determine if there is hoarding (holding wallet balances steady or adding to them) or spending/liquidating (lowering of wallet balances).
This BDD metric too can yield garbage results -- each time Mt. Gox spends from their wallet, for example, BDD will spike but that doens't mean there is any real economic transaction as a result. And it can be abused. Some parties from the Bitcoin Rich List with old coins can try to fake out those speculating on BDD by simply churning their old coins.
That's just one property of bitcoin -- we just don't know for certain from the data what is actually happening. Depending on your perspective, the difficulty in measuring Bitcoin activity is either a benefit or a hindrance. BDD is just another metric that might help give a little more insight into Bitcoin.