Topic: BOTDICE online simulator - play 100k Just-Dice / Satoshidice rounds for free - page 2. (Read 5883 times)

I know how Martingale progression works. I do not find it superior to progression systems with static increase and decrease. Currently Botdice allows much wider customization of bets than doubling up on loss. Buy don't worry, the  basic progression scheme of multiplying your previous bet will be added soon as well, so you can compare yourself how  massive losses you'll get on average of 100.000 bets or even a single run of 1000 bets.

I see.  But you can't predict wins or losses.  Wins are safe zones.  With memtingale a loss means the next bet is 2.n times greater than the first lost bet.  This is to recoup more than the first loss times the win multiplier if you assume the loss was a win.

Here's the output sample from Not@Las' pure martingale bot (copied from here - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/php-martingale-bot-for-satoshidice-80245)

The bets are increased 2x during a losing round then reset to the original 0.01 bet after the first win after a loss.  memtingale's system is Martingale but instead of a 2x multiplier you use a 2.n x multiplier to increase payout for a win.

Mem's sim follows the same rules as the bot.

Anything. The negative figure in the default setup is there to have readily an example of substraction.

Personally I have found the reverse progression work nicely on some game types and settings, because it catches winning streaks and decreases losses on losing streaks.

I change the loss setting to positive.  Neg/subtracting from the previous bet after a loss is not how I play the system.  I've never seen that system before.  Seems to me subtracting causes you to put funds at risk with the goal of getting a smaller return so then when a win is reached the payoff does not cover the total of all the previous losses.

What is the purpose of subtracting after a loss?

example. (I just picked numbers to increase that were about 2.5x+ greater than the previous loss.  I add .006 on wins in this example for no reason.)

bet   amt    w/l
1      .01     w
2      .016   w
3      .022     l
4      .05       l
5      .13       l
6      .3        l
7      .8        w
8      .01      w
9      .016    l
10    .04      w
11    .01      w
etc...

I am unable to reproduce the first series given your settings. Are you sure you didn't use max bet 0.01 or such (not every setting is displayed in the result page)?

Could you point out the error in the second sequence you quoted?

Greatness you used 65536 numbers for the random number.  I was going to add that to mem's.


It seems like the variable(s) for the bets is getting overwritten/reset in a conditional in the loop.


21:47:00
Max rounds to play:      100
Initial bankroll (cash):   10
Target cash:         cash +50%
Game type:         32768
Win multiplier:         1.957
Start bet:         0.01
Adjustment after win:   0.0
Adjustment after loss:   0.022

#    lucky number    bet    win    Profit

0    64906    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0104950
1    59444    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0209900

2    8514    0.010    0.0190700    -0.0119200
3    5710    0.010    0.0190700    -0.0028500

4    65254    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0133450
5    50497    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0238400

6    23879    0.010    0.0190700    -0.0147700
7    8256    0.010    0.0190700    -0.0057000
8    21565    0.010    0.0190700    0.0033700
9    12388    0.010    0.0190700    0.0124400

10    35310    0.010    -0.0104950    0.0019450
11    43254    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0085500
12    57363    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0190450
13    43450    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0295400

14    15149    0.010    0.0190700    -0.0204700

15    64072    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0309650
16    43447    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0414600
17    34175    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0519550
18    51739    0.010    -0.0104950    -0.0624500



--------------------------------------

21:49:03
Max rounds to play:      100
Initial bankroll (cash):   10
Target cash:         cash +50%
Game type:         32768
Win multiplier:         1.957
Start bet:         0.01
Adjustment after win:   0.006
Adjustment after loss:   0.028


#    lucky number    bet    win    Profit
0    31475    0.010    0.0190700    0.0090700

1    37085    0.016    -0.0164920    -0.0074220
2    26712    0.044    0.0856080    0.0341860
3    48105    0.050    -0.0504750    -0.0162890
4    52380    0.078    -0.0784610    -0.0947500

5    2522    0.106    0.2069420    0.0061920

6    58901    0.112    -0.1124440    -0.1062520

7    9724    0.140    0.2734800    0.0272280
8    9565    0.146    0.2852220    0.1664500
9    49525    0.152    -0.1524240    0.0140260
10    60013    0.180    -0.1804100    -0.1663840
11    57090    0.208    -0.2083960    -0.3747800
12    57804    0.236    -0.2363820    -0.6111620
13    46878    0.264    -0.2643680    -0.8755300
14    56916    0.292    -0.2923540    -1.1678840

15    28316    0.320    0.6257400    -0.8621440
16    24838    0.326    0.6374820    -0.5506620
17    30130    0.332    0.6492240    -0.2334380
18    4186    0.338    0.6609660    0.0895280
19    2321    0.344    0.6727080    0.4182360

20    49428    0.350    -0.3503250    0.0679110
21    38101    0.378    -0.3783110    -0.3104000

On what progression plan? Please detail the settings you use for us to be able to spot the errors. There may be issues at this stage.

Yes, if you go with the default settings the bet is decreased after a loss occurs (-0.01).

Cool idea but I'm pretty sure the bets are not working correctly or I'm not understanding how to input correctly.

ex. I do a run

bet 1 loss bet .01
bet 2 win bet .01

Maybe it's just me but the second bet should have been at least .02.

It's like the bets for win/loss is placed after the win/loss is determined, because I then will have a string of losses where my bet increases, or same on wins.


added

I'm pretty sure that instead of resets based on number of bets it needs to be conditional on win after loss. Then max increase amount is based on balance of bank or amount of bank at risk for the game.

The increase during wins is a nice feature, but at times when there is a loss the bet decreases on the first loss???


added

bet progression issue.

#    lucky number    bet    win    Profit
0    21280    0.010    0.0190700    0.0090700

1    47454    0.020    -0.0204900    -0.0114200
2    63734    0.040    -0.0404800    -0.0519000
3    62849    0.060    -0.0604700    -0.1123700

4    19732    0.080    0.1560600       -0.0363100
5    21103    0.090    0.1756300        0.0493200
6    00138    0.100    0.1952000      0.1445200

7    48626    0.010    -0.0104950    0.1340250
8    32777    0.010    -0.0104950    0.1235300
9    44185    0.010    -0.0104950    0.1130350
10    64938    0.010    -0.0104950    0.1025400
11    57191    0.010    -0.0104950    0.0920450
12    55645    0.010    -0.0104950    0.0815500
13    57211    0.010    -0.0104950    0.0710550

14    18680    0.010    0.0190700      0.0801250

15    47337    0.020    -0.0204900    0.0596350
16    44899    0.040    -0.0404800    0.0191550
17    52247    0.060    -0.0604700    -0.0413150
18    60597    0.080    -0.0804600    -0.1217750

19    12904    0.100    0.1952000      -0.0265750
20    11133    0.110    0.2147700       0.0781950
21    19271    0.120    0.2343400       0.1925350

22    36121    0.010    -0.0104950    0.1820400
23    34679    0.010    -0.0104950    0.1715450
24    48329    0.010    -0.0104950    0.1610500

Right, that's unfortunately still work in progress.. due to be updated when I can find 30 minutes extra for the frustrating stint

Fantastic!

But when I change the game type, the multipliers don't change? 

We have released a test version of BotDice.

UPDATE 2013-07-18: Just-Dice.com simulation added!

Simulate thousands of Just-Dice / Satoshidice rounds with automatic progression and see how much you would win or lose with your betting strategy.

From the simple options menu you can customize your bet progression extensively. Simulation lengths available are 100 or 1000 bets, just once or 100 sessions in a row. Current options include the following:

Max rounds to play    
Initial bankroll (cash)    
Target profit %   
Game type
Payout multiplier on win
Payout multiplier on loss
   
Initial bet amount    
Adjust bet after win    
Adjust bet after loss   
Reset to initial bet after wins in a row
Reset to initial bet after losses in a row
Maximum single bet
Transaction fee per bet   
Single session (show all bets) or big data (100 sessions just results)

Try it out and see the statistical value of your strategy before risking your monies and wasting time on the Just-Dice / Satoshidice site in an attempt to find out the best strategy! It's also eye opening to notice how large effect the nasty transaction fees or their absence have on your final profit.

Special thanks to mem for the inspiration arising from his memtingale simulator giving the igniting spark for this project!

Project will be updated more or less regularly. It's still very early alpha. Please report any errors or requests to this thread.