Wot Fonzie said pretty much.
Until I learned my lesson that it was a futile endeavour, I used to try and trade small $20-$30 price fluctuations, but depending on how the bot's algorithms are running would determine whether I had trouble getting in at Bid wall on dip, or Ask wall on peak. I have seen myself timing dip perfectly (or so I thought) and then trying to come out $30 further up at peak but end up having to sell $10 or $15 cheaper (below the spot) just to ensure that I get my order filled and am able to exit the market. If I try to sell at an Ask wall which is in place only for the bot traders, I will find that I will be outbid/underbid by 1 penny, the very instant I try to trade at spot. A human knows when he is up against the impossibly quick reactions of a bot.
And then there are the events of the past few days. It is obvious to anyone but the most boneheaded bulltard I would have thought, that the market 'wants' to go down.....but the bots aint letting it. What we have on MtGox, is a 100% fabricated (look at the trading candles) 'break out' event, perhaps intended to act as a catalyst. It never worked. Then on Stamp, the main cash out exchange, we have very low volume were buyers have been very reluctant to meet sellers, with huge walls piling up either side of the spot price. We go through the day with fractional trades keeping spot as close to buy wall as possible, but anytime a significant amount of volume shifts, the spot price shoots down $10 to Bid wall, then the very split second the volume is traded, a 0.01 btc transaction takes the spot price right back up to the Ask wall.
Most tellingly of all, earlier today, we had 800 BTC traded within 10 seconds within 814-810 USD! Most of us wouldn't be in a position to try this out at home, but if you wanted to sell 800 btc in one swipe, do you reckon that you would get them all punted within a $4 range!? The reality is that if you or I dropped 800 BTC on the exchange, we would drive the price down at least $50, if not more instigating a bearish market reaction in the aftermath which would further drive down pirce. The supposed 'Bid' walls would soon vanish out from under noses when a sell order of this magnitude hit, yet some fucker dropped 800 BTC and dropped the price $4. No doubt one of many end results of clear market manipulation, where the price has obviously been held artificially high in order to build up Bid pressure (which has been nothing like the Ask wall pressure) enough to absorb a flash sell-off at these current high prices, without damaging the market price (cos more of the same is too come).
ok thanks that is interesting. but that brings me to my 3rd question, can we systematically take advantage of the false prices as the manipulators do?
Im not sure if this comes into the FOREX much, but it would explain a lot of the best and unexpected opportunities.
No. They know the game plan and we are just fucking guessing. And even if you happen to guess right, they still have the power to shake off all but the most obstinate and shake everyone's hard earned into their koffers in the process.