OP is not making an analysis for long term, it's for short term.
Actually if we invest for long term, we should not be looking on this kind of analysis from time to time because the main reason why we invested bitcoin for long term is because we believe on its potential. What we only set is the target price to sell and take profit, but OP's analysis is different, it's for short term which state the market situation now and it's possible short term movement.
Bounce back is always done by bitcoin, in fact this year we bounce back from the huge dump and we currently achieve the high this year, not the ATH yet.
actually OP had been charged for copying lots of his analysis. he's caught stealing all the images he posted here in the forum, check this thread in meta.
$11,500 is a strong support. As strong as that is the resistance at $12,000. So I am also looking at Bitcoin's short term movements within this range for the next hours and days. I know we have gone past the resistance at $12,000 at least three times but we are always short of leaving that mark for good. We keep on coming back to the $11,500 - $11,999 range. We will see in the next days which direction will Bitcoin move strongly.
how long do you think we'd stay in this price range, 2 weeks to a month? it looks like its going to keep testing the resistance over and over even when btc breakout that 12k last week.