Of course, everyone understands that when a halving occurs, the price will skyrocket, of course, to be able to skyrocket depends on the previous price, if the initial price in 2024 can reach at least $ 50k then I'm optimistic that the price will easily reach $ 100k during the halving but if the initial price in 2024 is around $ 28 k then the max achievable price might be $50k.
50k sounds like a reasonable price that we could hit with or without the halving in 2024, but to say we shall get to $50k then hit a double because of the bitcoin halving all in one year is a big ask...
Generally speaking, I agree with the idea of being conservative with expectations, even though a doubling upon the bitcoin price due to a cutting off of the issuance of new supply in regards to the halvening does seem to be a reasonable expectation.. however the point in which such doubling should be considered tio apply might be another question that involves what is the fair price of a bitcoin, and some might even argue that the November 2022 bottom of $15,479 is a fair price, and others might argue that the 200-week moving average is a fair price, and surely others have made other assertions in regards to the price location that they consider to be a fair jumping off point.
Surely another thing is that we cannot necessarily go by strict measurements in regards to "what is reasonable?" either, especially since bitcoin remains a paradigm-shifting phenomena that is really early in its adoption phase, and surely it is possible that the BTC price could continue to be suppressed, but it does not really seem to be a reasonable approach for anyone to take who happens to have some kind of a clue regarding what bitcoin happens to be.. which also seems to be a pretty small percentage of the world's population, since it seems that less than 1% have already bought some - and not even conceding whether those who have BTC understand what they happen to hold or that they have taken a sufficiently adequate stake based on what it is that they hold.
Besides something has to drive price up and at the moment nothing really stands out that can cause such a price jump, unless something threatens something like the biggest currencies in fiat then everyone will be out trying to protect their wealth by going with crypto.
First of all, there is a lot of things that have already happened in the world in recent years that should provide enough information to be able to recognize that anyone would likely be in a better position to get into bitcoin rather than continuing to not have any bitcoin, so there are a lot of people, businesses/institutions and governments who still have to come the realization and recognition of the value of having some kind of a bitcoin policy (and/or stake in bitcoin). In that respect, bitcoin is far from any kind of mature asset class, as seems to be the framework in which you are analyzing the situation Woodie.
Second, your use of the term crypto seems to show that you don't really know what the fuck you are talking about. You have to be able to recognize and appreciate what is bitcoin in order to be able to recognize and appreciate the price of bitcoin and to consider various shitcoins in relation to bitcoin rather than just gobbing the idea of bitcoin into some kind of nonsense and amorphous framework that you refer to "crypto" as if it were some kind of a phenomena in which bitcoin happens to be one of the group of pieces of crap that are part of such amorphous current events.
In other words, to me that it may well be valuable for you, and anyone else who is trying to attempt to understand what might happen with the price of bitcoin, to consider bitcoin in a way in which you are able to conceptually figure out how it differs from shitcoins and also to be able to use clear enough language that you are specifying what you mean when you use the term crypto and figure out whether you are still talking about bitcoin or have you reverted to some kind of vague language that no longer really has any kind of grasp upon how the role of sound money and the various network effects (in the light of
those outlined by Trace Mayer in 2015) of bitcoin fit into what also seems to be happening with traditional banking systems and problems with the whole debt systems of the many shitty fiats in which the dollar still seems to be the strongest of the shitty fiats going through some ongoingly difficult to balance desperate maneuvers.
For now its all speculative of what the future holds.
Sure the future is speculative, but the future is not a total stab in the dark in regards to what might happen (even though there are always going to be some surprise elements and happenings along the way), especially since we have some frameworks under which we can attempt to analyze what we believe the present is and what happened in the past in order to attempt to get us to some kind of an understanding of where we are at and where we might be going.
Those kinds of frameworks should help us to consider various future scenarios that we consider to be more likely than not, and therefore in terms of personal preparations for the future, we might be better off to attempt to assign probabilities to various possible scenarios and to try to prepare ourselves in terms of a variety of possible future scenarios rather than just sitting on our hands and proclaiming "anything can happen," and in that regard, it seems to me to be better for each of us (for our own good) to try to put more preparations into scenarios that we consider to be more likely than not... while at the same time, making sure that we are financially and psychologically prepared for the lesser likely scenarios too.
For Bitcoin to be struggling hard to break above $30k again for months, I believe that it all depends upon the dollar's strength whether it'll be weak and let BTC skyrocket hard or if it becomes too much stronger, we may even see 1/10th ($10k) of what's speculated here i.e.; 100k
Yes, of course, we should also prepare for downity scenarios, and it seems to me that you are going to need a lot of luck if you are putting much, if any, preparations for $10k scenarios.
Let the time play its game because all we know now is, BTC had always been freely being manipulated until big players (institutions) put their foot forward into this and invested. Now, everything here moves just like we see in forex. So I believe that there are possibilities that if USD gets stronger and stronger, we don't have enough BTC supply here in terms of number to keep it strong against dollar which is why the fall will be big.
Wow!
Good luck with that.
You will probably need it.
I am not saying that your scenario is not going to play out, but I would not consider it as anything even close to a base case likely scenario, and frequently there are way more needs for normies to prepare for BTC UPpity rather than to expect (or hope)(or to imagine) that macro scenarios will play out in such a way that there may be those kinds of BTC "bargains" in the near-term future... even if the dollar were to show its strength in those kinds of seemingly imaginary ways that you seem to be envisioning
(in your seemingly fantasy framework regarding what is happening and/or likely to happen in regards to dee cornz, aka my lil precious).