BTC: ($10K), $20K, $50K, $100K - when ?

Pattart

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Quote from: Pamadar on April 24, 2019, 12:38:25 PM

Quote from: Kapyong on April 24, 2019, 08:29:57 AM

Thanks for replies folks

Yup, we optimists were way wrong (but that doesn't seem to stop others from making optimistic predictions I see.)

Yep, endless predictions are getting a little boring.

Yes, although there are some positive signs lately, could still go either way.

Oh well, we can still dream ...

Meanwhile, I wonder how McAfee will wriggle out of his promise :

"I now predict Bi[t]coin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong."

Ouch.

Never mind that, as if he will do that if things will not go according to what he was said, what is important right now is to have your own interpretations of what market will bring after some time of holding and trusting this chain, it's best to see the growth and another peak which will replaced the last time high, still optimistic seeing that for much shorter time frame.

I think that it is quite impossible to happen, for example we imagine the development of bitcoin moving positively as we imagine, prices continue to rise, and there is a bullish and pump. maybe we will get a new ATH, but if you look at the old ATH with new ATH, there is no a significant difference like up to hundreds of times? so in my opinion 1 million is a difficult price. but I respect your optimism

Kapyong

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Well yes, there were sceptical voices - good job

But I meant not on this thread of optimists.

Meanwhile, BTC is rising nicely again.

I recall an article (that I can't find now) that showed the several previous BTC peaks as all having that classic pattern of slow rise, acceleration, peak, 2nd peak, fall.

This classic bubble pattern (I forgot the exact name of the original author):

The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude.

First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

Or something like that, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe on ZH ?

If he is right, the next bubble could be millions.
Which seems very unlikely, but maybe $100,000 ?

Kapyong

Febo

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Quote from: gentlemand on May 04, 2019, 11:53:29 AM

Quote from: Kapyong on May 04, 2019, 11:25:10 AM

We were all totally wrong Sad

No-one saw the crash of early 2018, nor the later crash either.

Plenty of people saw it coming. They may well not want to have admitted it to themselves, but they knew. I well remember the peak. It seemed so stupid that I couldn't believe it reached the level it did and a pop was inevitable.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.25883207

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.26212384

I expected many, many more alts to die completely. I'm surprised so many have remained alive when in the 18 months since most have delivered fuck all.

As for my own predictions, they've all been utterly hopeless.

Yup, no one seems to see any reasonable voices in flood of hype. Specially newcomers. Those that knows then rather not speak at all since they know rare will listened to them.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: Kapyong on May 04, 2019, 11:25:10 AM

We were all totally wrong Sad

No-one saw the crash of early 2018, nor the later crash either.

Plenty of people saw it coming. They may well not want to have admitted it to themselves, but they knew. I well remember the peak. It seemed so stupid that I couldn't believe it reached the level it did and a pop was inevitable.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.25883207

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.26212384

I expected many, many more alts to die completely. I'm surprised so many have remained alive when in the 18 months since most have delivered fuck all.

As for my own predictions, they've all been utterly hopeless.

Kapyong

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Gday again,

I made this post in the good times late November 2017 - as BTC rose rapidly through $10,000 USD.

By 7th December 2017 our estimates looked like this :

Name	$20K	$50K	$100K
Kapyong	mid-late 2018	2019	2021-2
thecodebear	April 2018	2018	2019
Emelectrol	2018	2018	2018
HeRetiK	2019	2022	2035
Payne976	2018	2020	2021
lili song	october 2018	2020	2023-4
batang_bitcoin	eoy 2018	2019	2026
btcney	2018-20	2027?	2037?
hydeevanz	2019
littlebill16	autumn/fall 2019	Spring 2021	Summer 2022
isov	6.1.2018	17.6.2018	4.2.2019
passwordnow	Feb.-March of 2018	2018+	2019
DonFacundo	2018	2020	2022-5
errol94	early March 2019
fabiorem	December 2018		end of 2018

We were all totally wrong Sad

No-one saw the crash of early 2018, nor the later crash either.

Bear that in mind when you make predictions

Kapyong

LimLims

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1xbit.com

Quote from: cryptjh on May 02, 2019, 12:14:14 PM

Quote from: Kapyong on November 25, 2017, 09:44:20 PM

Are you game enough to predict about when BTC will hit the following marks in US$ ?

My personal predictions are :
$10K = around New Year 2018
$20K = around New Year 2019
$50K = sometime in 2020
$100K = around 2023-2025

Won't be too long before we see if I'm right or not

Kapyong

Those numbers in those years sound possible. I think we will surpass the 100k before 2023, most likely already in 2022 and in 2023 we cut go as high as 350k

Your predictions are really a joke for me lmao.
I mean seriously? It's not as easy as guessing a random number.
You need to understand before the factors that led to the growth of the price of Bitcoin. I mean Bitcoin follows the rule of Supply and Demand.
If the demand more, supply less then Bitcoin will surely rise. But if the trade volume is low, then it will definitely fall.
Now say me your numbers and predict it according to these conditions.

STT

legendary

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Block reward matters as it relates to supply, in effect lower inflation and expansion of the monetary base of available Bitcoin. Hence speculation of a higher price due to lower supply and growing demand

Quote

$10K = around New Year 2018
$20K = around New Year 2019
$50K = sometime in 2020
$100K = around 2023-2025

Won't be too long before we see if I'm right or not

Time heals all ills, not really but progression over time matters alot to me and I count that as a major component to proof of Bitcoin as a valid source of value, as a tradable asset and reliable in peoples minds hence I relate time to value more so then most. I have the great benefit of perspective since 2013 or so and knowing how BTC moves up and the great fuss made at those times.

With that context I call 10k for 2019/2020

20k I think is more like 2021 and possibly in the years following it might develop more slowly but as a function of lower block reward after not before that is in effect

If we are really being optimistic then we now suppose the idea of it breaking boundaries and I struggle on this one more because its not old ground. 50k I think not before 2029 (and I really dont see it ever has to go past 20k as this is already high enough to be 'successful' )and 100k I cant say I ever think happens without US dollar losing 90% of its current value so lets say 2040

Thats just my basic opinion as a boring person in many markets

1Referee

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on May 01, 2019, 04:05:08 AM

Nevertheless, there's a lot of rumor that the next halving is in the year 2020 which is clearly that no have proof.

A simple Google search attempt would land you on this site; https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

It's roughly scheduled to happen around May 23 in 2020 but due to the fluctuations in block times it might be a few weeks sooner or later, but guaranteed to happen in 2020.

If you don't consider that proof, then do some manual calculation based on ~block times and the number of blocks left to mine before the block halving kicks in.

Quote from: Gabteb on May 02, 2019, 08:43:28 AM

So now when iam writing this the price of BTC is 5465 only hope your predictions will become to truth and we see 20k during 2019 and maybe after halving of the reaward price will go higher anyway all talk about that now and i think it will happen as happened before this, lets hold and buy now.

You know that the block halving only halves the rewards, right? Based on that, what on earth would justify the block halving to pump the price to levels beyond it's past all time high?

cryptjh

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Quote from: Kapyong on November 25, 2017, 09:44:20 PM

Are you game enough to predict about when BTC will hit the following marks in US$ ?

My personal predictions are :
$10K = around New Year 2018
$20K = around New Year 2019
$50K = sometime in 2020
$100K = around 2023-2025

Won't be too long before we see if I'm right or not

Kapyong

Those numbers in those years sound possible. I think we will surpass the 100k before 2023, most likely already in 2022 and in 2023 we cut go as high as 350k

ancafe

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Quote from: Gabteb on May 02, 2019, 08:43:28 AM

So now when iam writing this the price of BTC is 5465 only hope your predictions will become to truth and we see 20k during 2019 and maybe after halving of the reaward price will go higher anyway all talk about that now and i think it will happen as happened before this, lets hold and buy now.

we know when bitcoin prices will reach these prices. now we only need to wait until the end of the year. there is a high possibility that the price of bitcoin can be very high at the end of this year. even when the price is close to $ 10k, it has become a very good development.

Gabteb

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So now when iam writing this the price of BTC is 5465 only hope your predictions will become to truth and we see 20k during 2019 and maybe after halving of the reaward price will go higher anyway all talk about that now and i think it will happen as happened before this, lets hold and buy now.

arpon11

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Quote from: Adriano2010 on April 30, 2019, 08:13:42 PM

Well i think the 50k is very possible on 2020 because of halving, but no one can guarantee it, and always invest only money that afford to lose because no one can guess what will happen and when the price will go up enoguh for a profit.

To get to $50,000 because of halving we most start from somewhere. Cryptocurrencies market has been picking up this days and we are at the upward trend at the moment. I think we should not expect much this year but I am speculating a gradual increases in pricing. 2020 is the year to watch over and if care is not taking it might skyrocket to $100,000 or $150,000 because of the type of personality that are coming into the cryptocurrencies market.

wuvdoll

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Predictions will of course be right or wrong, some people will be lucky and predict the right moments and some people will predict the wrong moments but that doesn't mean that the wrong ones will be wrong for the next prediction and it doesn't mean the right ones will be right for the next moment.

We are just predicting and each time we have a 50% shot at knowing the truth, we just make stuff up according to what we believe and sometimes its true sometimes its wrong. That is why its a "prediction", the word literally means just guessing something and not "knowing". I don't "predict" when I say if we continue this way one day we will be in year 2020, that is not prediction because that is now time works and we all know it, this is not like this is this purely speculation for the price.

DoublerHunter

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Quote from: klaaas on May 01, 2019, 03:55:24 AM

Quote from: quality.crypto on May 01, 2019, 12:08:04 AM

but nobody doesn't have any clue when the price of Bitcoin will cross those values.

Even when we go trough the targets stated keeping it there would be as hard. Maybe it would fit better to ask how likely is to hit the numbers in x time.

Because prediction is still predicting the price nothing is really hit the right happen on the price on the market. Nevertheless, there's a lot of rumor that the next halving is in the year 2020 which is clearly that no have proof. Let's assume that halving is near to happen and let's prepare for this big event. We are now facing to bull trend happen, the market now showed resistance from a small correction.

klaaas

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Quote from: quality.crypto on May 01, 2019, 12:08:04 AM

but nobody doesn't have any clue when the price of Bitcoin will cross those values.

Even when we go trough the targets stated keeping it there would be as hard. Maybe it would fit better to ask how likely is to hit the numbers in x time.

quality.crypto

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Quote from: Adriano2010 on April 30, 2019, 08:13:42 PM

Well i think the 50k is very possible on 2020 because of halving, but no one can guarantee it, and always invest only money that afford to lose because no one can guess what will happen and when the price will go up enoguh for a profit.

Exactly, no one has an exact 100% answers for the Bitcoin to reach $100k because based on the market situation each one of us predicting that price of Bitcoin will cross more than $50k, but nobody doesn't have any clue when the price of Bitcoin will cross those values. Based on that prediction don't dream yourself and don't invest huge amounts into bitcoin.

Kemarit

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Quote from: Kapyong on April 24, 2019, 08:29:57 AM

Meanwhile, I wonder how McAfee will wriggle out of his promise :

"I now predict Bi[t]coin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong."

Ouch.

Nah, he will have excuses when Bitcoin doesn't hit $1 million at the end of 2020. He just blurted it out in hope that others will invest on it pushing his bitcoin portfolio to grow. I mean who would have think that Bitcoin can go as high as $20,000 at the end of 2017?

Right now though we are chasing that big mental barrier, $6000 and at least go back where the market is prior to the massive dump in November. And then we can talk all about our predictions again because it's really a indication that the bulls have comeback already so it's going to be an exciting ending this 2019 as everyone look for the next block halving next year as the catalyst for the another exponential growth and new all-time-highs.

pooya87

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Quote from: el kaka22 on April 24, 2019, 11:45:23 AM

I think there is a big difference between some of those numbers. For example 10k doesn't seem that impossible anymore, we are working towards 6 thousand dollars right now and it is less than 100% increase which we can actually achieve, hell we made more than 50% in the past 3 weeks alone so considering another 100% increase could be done in 2019 as well.

20 thousand dollars is another deal but we had it before so it means we can actually reach it since we already done it which makes it believable for all of us and I am sure one day we will get there as well, don't know how quick it will be but it will happen. However when it comes to 50 thousand dollars or 100 thousand dollars those are really high numbers, not that it will never happen but since we never had it before its really difficult to say when it will happen.

the thing about bitcoin is that just because a number looks big it doesn't mean it is harder or impossible. it just means it is new! for example in early days nobody even thought $1 was possible for something like bitcoin, let alone having 5 digits price!
with that said i think $10k is going to be hard, and possibly $20k even harder as we have seen these prices and there are certain newcomers (in 2017) who bought at that high prices and want to sell when they get back there out of panic so it will be harder to go above the previous ATH. (similar to 2017 and breaking $1200 which was much harder than going to $20k). then after that when we enter $20k+ and reach $30k, ... it becomes easier as there are less sell pressure above there.

Adriano2010

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Well i think the 50k is very possible on 2020 because of halving, but no one can guarantee it, and always invest only money that afford to lose because no one can guess what will happen and when the price will go up enoguh for a profit.

Pamadar

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Quote from: Kapyong on April 24, 2019, 08:29:57 AM

Thanks for replies folks

Yup, we optimists were way wrong (but that doesn't seem to stop others from making optimistic predictions I see.)

Yep, endless predictions are getting a little boring.

Yes, although there are some positive signs lately, could still go either way.

Oh well, we can still dream ...

Meanwhile, I wonder how McAfee will wriggle out of his promise :

"I now predict Bi[t]coin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong."

Ouch.

Never mind that, as if he will do that if things will not go according to what he was said, what is important right now is to have your own interpretations of what market will bring after some time of holding and trusting this chain, it's best to see the growth and another peak which will replaced the last time high, still optimistic seeing that for much shorter time frame.

Topic: BTC: ($10K), $20K, $50K, $100K - when ? (Read 13110 times)