Topic: BTC $140+ RISK FACTOR ANALYSIS - page 2. (Read 1262 times)
+1, can i repost this in that thread?
Why don't we merge this thread with ' IDEAS HOW WE CAN ACCURATELY PREDICT BITCOIN VALUE CHANGES BEFORE THEY OCCUR'' and figure out comprehensively all influencing factors of bitcoins value and work out the chance of them happening
And your opinion is based on what? Anything to back it up?
Please stick to facts & argument based discussion.
Please stick to facts & argument based discussion.
there is no risk in a currency of the future my friend
bitcoin's truly measure value is about 900 $ per bitcoin at current usage rates
bitcoin's truly measure value is about 900 $ per bitcoin at current usage rates
BTC is experiencing exponential growth.
PLUS: we can keep them & profit
MINUS: the risk is growing
Risk enlarging factors:
1. More "newbie" investors attracted - without understanding of the currency, without knowledge about its uses. They buy BTC as long as it grows, they sell BTC when it falls.
2. "Big game" attention attraction. Banks, news corps, hedge funds & large market sharks are attracted. Many $1M USD trades occuring now.
3. The hype - BTC is a hot topic in media, it's like a life sustain drip. When it's cut off, it's gonna fall.
Potential risks:
A. Bogus news, e.g. "A team of M.I.T researchers published a paper, in which they claim, the Bitcoin protocol has been compromised." Even if it's bogus & draws international attention (it surely would sometime soon when most news-vultures know about BTC), it would make the price plummet.
B. DDOS attacks - for around $120 anyone can rent a gigabit botnet, down the most popular BTC marketplaces/exchanges. This already HAD and still WOULD make the price plummet.
C. Exponential growth - many startups experienced this, it usually takes several days of exp userbase growth until a site is overloaded. Most sites operate withing 10-20% of their potential. MtGox operates within 80% of their potential (my guess based on lags). This would be even worse than a DDOS - it wouldn't end. It would need severe IT architecture redesign. This would last & cause the price to plummet.
D. Probably many more - feel free to add in your thoughts.
IMHO the situation becomes very unsafe - it would be better for a small crash to happen now, than a MAJOR CRASH to happen around $350. The latter could totally discredit BTC in the eyes of the newbie public. A small crash would be a warning sign - that BTC needs some time to develop infrastructure & long term trust.
What are your thoughts?
PLUS: we can keep them & profit
MINUS: the risk is growing
Risk enlarging factors:
1. More "newbie" investors attracted - without understanding of the currency, without knowledge about its uses. They buy BTC as long as it grows, they sell BTC when it falls.
2. "Big game" attention attraction. Banks, news corps, hedge funds & large market sharks are attracted. Many $1M USD trades occuring now.
3. The hype - BTC is a hot topic in media, it's like a life sustain drip. When it's cut off, it's gonna fall.
Potential risks:
A. Bogus news, e.g. "A team of M.I.T researchers published a paper, in which they claim, the Bitcoin protocol has been compromised." Even if it's bogus & draws international attention (it surely would sometime soon when most news-vultures know about BTC), it would make the price plummet.
B. DDOS attacks - for around $120 anyone can rent a gigabit botnet, down the most popular BTC marketplaces/exchanges. This already HAD and still WOULD make the price plummet.
C. Exponential growth - many startups experienced this, it usually takes several days of exp userbase growth until a site is overloaded. Most sites operate withing 10-20% of their potential. MtGox operates within 80% of their potential (my guess based on lags). This would be even worse than a DDOS - it wouldn't end. It would need severe IT architecture redesign. This would last & cause the price to plummet.
D. Probably many more - feel free to add in your thoughts.
IMHO the situation becomes very unsafe - it would be better for a small crash to happen now, than a MAJOR CRASH to happen around $350. The latter could totally discredit BTC in the eyes of the newbie public. A small crash would be a warning sign - that BTC needs some time to develop infrastructure & long term trust.
What are your thoughts?
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