This time, I don't have the same conclusion as you.
The reason is simple, the trend that we are seeing right now couldn't be planned, this is IMO the direct effect on what's happening for Mt.Gox combined with the announcment of Russian's opposition on the use of bitcoin by major companies.
So, this trends may be harshened and get deepenth as we will reach the next week, due to the inital move that you predicted on the first post. I expect something like $400 - 450.
What I mean, in two words, is that this actual low Bitcoin is not the same forecast foreseen on your first post
as i stated in my latest post, i don't think it will go down "Significantly" below $500, i.e if we see another strong sell off, i don't see it any lower than approx $400-$450.
i disagree with the $100-$350 range usually mentioned here.
It does feel like dark times are ahead of us, but having lived through April's bubble that's usually when Bitcoin proves everyone wrong.