BTC ATH ~~~ - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

promise444c5

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Quote from: pawel7777 on January 10, 2024, 02:16:14 PM

But we can also notice that each time, the growth % in ATH since the previous one drops significantly. Which is kind of obvious but still worth noting, as there are still people out there hoping for x100 or more in the net cycle just because it happened in the past.
The 2017 ATH was a whooping 1,710% higher than the 2013 top, but 2021 one was "only" 346% higher than 2017 ATH. That's x5 drop.
A x5 drop to the previous 346% means a 69% increase, so around $116k.

I don't quite get the calculation very well can you explain better please

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Quote from: promise444c5 on January 06, 2024, 04:11:36 PM

We could all notice that archieved ATHs after a particular Halving surpasses their previous ATH and normally, the long overview chart for the whole BTC price movement is an uptrend..

But we can also notice that each time, the growth % in ATH since the previous one drops significantly. Which is kind of obvious but still worth noting, as there are still people out there hoping for x100 or more in the net cycle just because it happened in the past.
The 2017 ATH was a whooping 1,710% higher than the 2013 top, but 2021 one was "only" 346% higher than 2017 ATH. That's x5 drop.
A x5 drop to the previous 346% means a 69% increase, so around $116k.

jaberwock

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on January 08, 2024, 08:39:44 PM

Quote from: Marvelman on January 08, 2024, 01:21:46 PM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 08, 2024, 01:25:45 AM

I'm curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before. But that don't mean they got to go on forever. Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes. From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

Yep, there's nothing to believe in this. This is also another reason why I started to accumulate Bitcoin last year.
I looked up all the previous Bitcoin block halvings too and most of it just repeats itself.
So for me, I am expecting a new all-time high before the Bitcoin block halving.

We can believe on this because sometimes it can happen and sometimes not. So the goal is not only to expect too much. It's hard when you are heavily attached on to something. It may cause you a bad feeling if in case the thing that you are hoping for don't come into reality.

On your explanation, it is seems you believe on the cycle or in the phrase " history repeats itself ", because you bought last year thinking BTC will pump. If you bought at the beginning you are still profiting even though I say that a real pump didn't happened yet. The reason why BTC can rise or possibly pump up before the halving is because people are FOMOing for it. They are too excited for the event.

DanWalker

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 09, 2024, 09:13:18 PM

Quote from: Jating on January 09, 2024, 06:44:25 PM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 08, 2024, 10:20:23 PM

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

A conservative prediction of $120,000 as a new all time high seems bullish. I'm not as bullish but I'm almost sure that $100,000 will be reached within this year or next year. But I agree with you that a bullish sentiment doesn't necessarily mean that the market will indeed turn like it. It happened in the past. There was a time everybody was wearing laser eyes because everybody was expected that $100,000 is about to come. It didn't.

But Bitcoin is best if your game is hodling and waiting.

To me, the $120k ATH target is a pretty conservative prediction for bitcoin this bull season. From events like the ETF, the world economy entering a post-crisis recovery phase, halving...all these events will create a super cycle for us and bitcoin could reach 180k-200k$ this time, IMO.
It can be said that the goal of 100k USD is a goal that we have been pursuing for many years and had high expectations during the 2021 bull season, but in the end, it did not happen. But for this bull season, $100k is a fairly modest target as bitcoin's most recent ATH was $69k.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: Jating on January 09, 2024, 06:44:25 PM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 08, 2024, 10:20:23 PM

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

A conservative prediction of $120,000 as a new all time high seems bullish. I'm not as bullish but I'm almost sure that $100,000 will be reached within this year or next year. But I agree with you that a bullish sentiment doesn't necessarily mean that the market will indeed turn like it. It happened in the past. There was a time everybody was wearing laser eyes because everybody was expected that $100,000 is about to come. It didn't.

But Bitcoin is best if your game is hodling and waiting.

Jating

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 08, 2024, 10:20:23 PM

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

Kemarit

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Quote from: promise444c5 on January 06, 2024, 04:11:36 PM

We could all notice that archieved ATHs after a particular Halving surpasses their previous ATH and normally, the long overview chart for the whole BTC price movement is an uptrend..

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

Well if the pattern holds true, then we can say that it will be always like that? Remember that every 4 years we have this halving and this is the catalyst. So for me this will continue and I don't think that it's going to break unless there is a drastic change in Bitcoin economy.

So 2024-2025 will still be a bull run, it's just a question on what will be our new all time high.

Prediction is that it will be in 6 digits. And as high as $180,000 - $220,000, but we will have to see. So exciting times ahead for being a Bitcoin enthusiast as this is what we all have been waiting for, block halving - > bull run - ? new all time high.

el kaka22

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This is exactly why I keep saying that 2025 will be the real bull year. I have seen it happen three times now, and I think the fourth will be exactly the same as well, there is really no tangible reason why it would be any different, I get that it may "feel" different this time around, and I agree that the feeling is different because we are much higher right now and that's why it feels a little different, but the reality is that we are ending up with something that should not be all that easy to handle.

We need to end up with something that should not be all that smart, it should not be considered to be all that crazy neither, it's just a historical data, we will see it be greater next year, and just go up decently this year.

Fundamentals Of

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That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: Marvelman on January 08, 2024, 01:21:46 PM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 08, 2024, 01:25:45 AM

I'm curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before. But that don't mean they got to go on forever. Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes. From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

Yep, there's nothing to believe in this. This is also another reason why I started to accumulate Bitcoin last year.
I looked up all the previous Bitcoin block halvings too and most of it just repeats itself.
So for me, I am expecting a new all-time high before the Bitcoin block halving.

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: Marvelman on January 08, 2024, 01:21:46 PM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 08, 2024, 01:25:45 AM

I'm curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before. But that don't mean they got to go on forever. Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes. From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

You're right, cycle here is define as every 4 years after the halving, we might see a bull run and new all time high. And this cycle still holds true up to this point so we can say that this year after the halving we might see a massive bull run again till next year 2025.

Currently with the news of a approval of Bitcoin ETF the price or at least the sentiments of the market is already very bullish, just in the last 24 hours, the price keeps going up to $46k and higher. So let's see how far this goes before the halving, who knows, maybe at April we might see or close to our previous all time high of $69k and then the prediction for the next high is at least 6 digits.

Marvelman

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Quote from: promise444c5 on January 08, 2024, 01:25:45 AM

I'm curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before. But that don't mean they got to go on forever. Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes. From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

BABY SHOES

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Quote from: promise444c5 on January 06, 2024, 04:11:36 PM

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

I think the pattern is true that every halving will definitely be ATH, but we never know how the future will be but ATH will still exist because the cycle will remain the same as before. That's my own opinion how bitcoin will remain an all-time record.

Is there anyone skeptical about this, I don't think so much because investors know how bitcoin behavior has always set records in 5 years or per halving what I mentioned, this is just speculation others are the same no more than that so just be optimistic, we see the right time next year how bitcoin price movements whether ATH or NOT.

tertius993

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I discussed exactly this topic, in this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58647849

promise444c5

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Quote from: Wiwo on January 07, 2024, 05:56:27 PM

so levelling out do you mean when bitcoin eventually become more stable in term of volatilities?

Yeah I saw it too, I think he's talking in term of ATH but at the same time, ATH levelling out should mean BTC becoming stable and much more less volatile and I don't think there will be a possibility for that.
The other way round is Bitcoin taking the same pattern for years of halving maybe......

Quote from: pooya87 on January 07, 2024, 10:31:56 AM

I believer this "cycle" will continue for a bunch of more halvings because it is still supply rate reduction by 50% and the effects of it on the market is significant enough to tip the balance in favor of a big rise.

I'm curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

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Quote from: Upgrade00 on January 07, 2024, 08:38:06 AM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 06, 2024, 04:11:36 PM

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

Nothing is sustainable forever.

The capacity of growth an industry has is correlative to how much wiggle room there is or how much money can sustainably be moved into it. We can already see reduction in how much growth there is in the Bitcoin market over the last 5 years;

• From 2019 to date
The price has gone from ~$3.5k to $67k
That's approximately ×20

• From 2014 to 2019
The price went from ~$400 to $18k
This is approximately ×45

If the trend continues we should be having lower and lower price increases until it levels out eventually.

Really boss, what do you mean by leveling out eventually?

Am kind of confuse because with recent happenings in term of Bitcoin adoption and the present price compared to that of those years back when bitcoin did the 20x or 45x I believe in 2014-2019 $400-$18k but not from 2018 till date Bitcoin touched 69k and currently at 42k+ which is significantly a good price for bitcoin at the moment, so levelling out do you mean when bitcoin eventually become more stable in term of volatilities?

aoluain

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Quote from: Beparanf on January 07, 2024, 08:56:15 AM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 06, 2024, 04:11:36 PM

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

There’s no such thing as continuous pattern BUT this pattern you brought about Bitcoin Halving and ATH has basis that’s why it comes up with that pattern. I believe it might move on same manner but with lesser growth in the future since the price is already discovered compared when the earlier date which only few investors already entered.

Now that institutional investors and other whale traders already weigh in, it will be very hard to have strong fluctuations like before because this whales will surely take profit and continuously trade the price.

I agree with that synopsis, you could almost compare the reducing growth after the halving
to the idea that as Bitcoin ages and is accepted and used by more people with greater
knowledge the volatility reduces also. That is the same idea as the ATH following the halving
being less dramatic.

So yes the ATH should continue following the halving but there is a chance that it gets
to the point where there is so little volatility that there would not be a newer ATH perhaps

ajiz138

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Why not? Although there is no exact correlation yet but history will continue to carve, I don't see how an expert says there will be no more ATH after this halving, but the facts say ATH will be much bigger because they believe bitcoin has now affected the world economy.

I just want to say my own opinion that the next ATH will still happen and often say $100K is still reasonable, I am not skeptical about it but just a sense of optimism that bitcoin will be higher for longer.

We won't say accurately even though it's not certain, just be confident that ATH will be encountered again.

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Quote from: Marvelman on January 07, 2024, 07:42:56 AM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 06, 2024, 04:11:36 PM

The image below shows a table representation of price History for BTC

Why didn't you complete the table. It is 2024 already!

You can go on and do justice to that Grin

Quote from: Marvelman on January 07, 2024, 07:42:56 AM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 06, 2024, 04:11:36 PM

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

No one can predict that in advance. But if history repeats itself, we can expect anywhere between 100-300% price performance this year. I'd be more than happy with that.

The circle is like a tradition that has repeatedly occurred in previous time's and the inclination is that a reiteration of the circle is more than certain.

We are all making speculations about the price in the hope that the next ATH after the halving will hit a significant price level, the high expectations from investors on the next bitcoin ATH is sparked by the awaiting bitcoin ETF approval which the SEC has been delaying for no just cause. However when the ETF finally get approved the price of bitcoin will definitely spike up to an altitude that investors will be more than happy about and a lot of them will not resist the urge to sell and take profit even before the ATH.

Nrcewker

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We have seen Bitcoins follow the history. This has become very obvious that when we will see the next ATH price if this history is followed again. I mean it’s not late to invest in the coin. If we buy also at current price, then in the next ATH price we can make 2-3x profit. We just need to wait patiently, and believe in the coins. When Bitcoins have fell in price, then in the next moment it has gone very hope. So let’s hope for the same this time also.

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