Topic: BTC back at 20K. Imagine who sold at 17.7K. (Read 774 times)

I also sold bitcoin at $17800, and indeed I really regret it, but I tried to buy Bitcoin again when it was at $20000,
because I saw on social media that many predicted it would go to $27k, of course I realized it,
if selling in a panic will make we lose.

if it's been sold at $17k, let it be sold, and don't regret it, and indeed the price will be bullish again, buy it again,
yes, it's better like that than Hold, because holding is much risky when the market is uncertain

Apart from not panicking, there are also basic and technical things that a beginner needs to learn before investing in crypto, such as knowing the momentum to buy, which is when the lowest price of the price in a period is so that they don't lose most of their capital.

Every newcomer into crypto panics when he/she sees prices going all the way down the drain in an instant. This is normal since such people aren't used to the crypto market. Those who stay no matter what will see that crypto usually goes up after a severe bear market. It happens all of the time. I'm pretty sure BTC will go back to its "former glory" in a few years from now. We just have to be patient in order to obtain great results in the future.

No one knows how much BTC or any other cryptocurrency will be worth in the long run, due to the unpredictable nature of the market. You can buy coins today only to find out that your investment went all the way downhill in an instant. That's why it's important to diversify your investment to minimize risks of loss as much as possible. Who knows how far BTC will go? Just my opinion

It is true that this is the life cycle of the crypto market. No matter how hard we try, we are powerless to help them, no one can teach them experience, only they and the market will teach them how to be more mature in this market.

For the newbies, as long as they remain interested in the market when this sale season is over, I'm sure they will be the next generation of market winners. Some will leave the market forever, those who stay will see how the market works and they will know what to do for the next bear season.

You say all that because you now have the expertise of a veteran and patience of a firm believer in Bitcoin. I bet you also panicked expectedly as a noob when you witnessed for the first time Bitcoin dip. If you didn't, I did. Anyone observing Bitcoin plummeting will panic because of its volatility when it does that. So, I don't blame any noob investor who panics because of that. My blame and disappoinment will be on veterans who should know the modus operandi of Bitcoin. It's always after the rain comes the shine – in this case, after the bull comes the bear. It's a circle.

Everyone must have experienced a panic sell, and this is normal, especially for newbies who do not have the knowledge and experience.
So every market dump there will be people who panic sell, that's what sometimes makes the market experience a drastic decline. Therefore,
it is very important for us to learn from every mistake we make, and not to repeat it again. It's okay to sell Bitcoin at a low price, if in the end
it can make us realize what a good investment should be. Sometimes for some people it is necessary to have a bad experience first to be able
to understand how the crypto market works. Because to be a successful investor, that doesn't mean we can't make mistakes at all.
However, the successful investor is a person who can learn from every mistake he makes.

Because we are in a cycle, those people who panic sells then gain experience, then a fresh set of players comes in, then will go on the same route to panic sell.

Yeah, but those who have enough experience now will change their strategy, so it's a never ending way to make money out of the pockets of inexperience traders. Sounds bad, but we know that sooner or later they will know how to make money for themselves, and so it's goes on.

No matter how many times history repeats itself, this will continue to happen. There will be people who panic selling at low prices and there will be gullible people who keep buying at low prices as long as there are sellers.

This is how the market works, money from the pockets of inexperienced people who are afraid of losing money will be transferred to those who are eager to learn and have experience.

I cannot really blame newbies for panicking as the movements of the market can be way more extreme than what we see with any other asset, however even if they make a mistake or two the next step is to learn from them, and that is where things go wrong as the majority of the newbies never progress any further and keep making the same mistakes over and over again, and that is how they lose most of their capital without even realizing what is what happened for them to reach that point.

so from your understanding and observations in Bitcoin, you are informing us that through your practical analysis Bitcoin is going be experiencing another down fall. Which approximately it will fall below twenty thousand (20k) which can take us to eighteen thousand (18k) and something like twelve thousand (12k). I have come across of many people emphasising on twenty thousand (12k). That it will be the last bus stop of bitcoin falling before rising. Can someone make a preferable analysis of that, so that we can believe with formative elaboration.

Usually for beginners who invest in crypto or bitcoin they always panic when they see the market plummeting. However, for experienced investors, they will definitely take advantage of opportunities when the bitcoin price drops to collect bitcoins and make profits. Even in a downtrend, investors who have polished their analytical technical skills can profit by using knowledge to predict short-term moves and capitalizing on them by buying lows and selling highs.

Last months selling wasn't driven so much by short-term holders of the past year however, there were 1-2 year and 3-5 year holders selling as well. A lot of those 1-2 year holders bought around $10K prices levels, so I can understand selling at $20K, even below it, if they feel prices are going to return to $10K. Especially if they already sold percentages around $60K, $40K, etc, so as to average out of the market.

Then if you look at the 3-5 year holders, from mid 2017 to mid 2019, they were buyers anywhere from $3K to $20K, many around $4K or $6K to $8K based on volume in that time period. So while I agree selling while price is considerably oversold isn't the smartest move, many aren't willing to wait around for price to potentially reverse to $30K or $40K, etc, as they are clearly aware price could drop down to $10K with current economic environment before that happens. The same dynamic occurred with 1 year+ holders selling when price dropped to $4K in 2018, for many it was a time to panic sell in case price went much much lower.

The reality is long-term holders (especially 3-5 years) aren't going to be selling because it's a bad month, but more so because it looks like a bad year, regardless of whether price rebounds 50-100% in the short-term. In the same way they wouldn't have been buying 3-5 years ago because the month ended well, but because the saw an opportunity that clearly they don't see anymore (or at least at present).

Overall it's a small percentage of long-term holders selling, but this helps to explain how price can get so oversold, as opposed to short-term holders who are more likely to wait for a rebound for selling...

Perhaps, not all are able to hold longer, some got panic too easily and then sell. In fact, this situation wasn't new to us, many are buying high and then selling low, impatient people easily got tricked with the market pump but were too worried when it dump.

It is somewhat to say that not all are able to understand the market volatility, many are still vulnerable to their emotions which is a very common issue why they fail.

Just because it had a small fall, doesn't mean that it will continue to go down. I know that it's going to be quite difficult to believe that the price would be fine, because we have seen it do badly in the past few days, but we have also seen it go up to 21k and not many people really believed it would go to 50k during that time neither.

So, if you do not think that price reaching from 17k to 21k doesn't mean going to 50k, then you shouldn't believe it going from 21k to 19k meaning it will go to 15k neither. Just focus on what you could control, and the price drops are not something in your power to control, so only focus on what would you do if it did, not will it do that.

This is crypto life history because a panic seller won’t take risk then they wanna sold quickly. In terms of points, panic investors always try to make a profit and when the crypto market is down they sell all the tokens so that there is no loss. However, in that case there is a risk for a new project because the investors are removed from that project due to excess dumping.

This seems right. Anyone who brought at $40k would sell when the price goes lower than that, $35k-$30k to cut loss rather losing more. Same with anyone who brought around $30k. Panic and cut loss is normal so if people in this thread can't understand why would anyone sold at 17.7K, they wouldn't really understand how the market works. Fear indicates investor's stand.

... assuming your model is accurate, of course.

I just finished some complex scientific and mathematical modeling and have confirmed in a proven way that the price of bitcoin will never be $20k or above for more than 30 consecutive days at any point in the next 5 years.

It's still a good thing if you are aware of the fake and negative news circulating around because you can warn others who are not good at analyzing it. Not all information are fake therefore you can still grab the legit ones and incorporate it with your current strategy that you are using which is more on technical because you said you will be using the charts.

I believe that having a two strategy is still better than one. That can greatly increase your chance of earning a nice profit. On the other hand btc price is still stable around 19k to 20k usd. Those who sold at 17k are probably regretting and crying now, well that was their fault of not trusting bitcoin.