We've been consolidating for a whole month now above the $8,100 monthly low. If that breaks down, there will be a major stop run past that zone. I believe the market will drop further than most bears currently expect.
Looking at daily pivots, the $7,200 and $6,400 areas look much more interesting. Considering that BTC loves to go to extremes, the 0.705 retracement level around $5,800 looks possible too.
An equivalent drop to 2016 (the post-halving downtrend) by percentage would suggest the $6,200s.