Topic: 🚨 BTC Bloodbath 🚨 (Read 318 times)

Posted this in April and still holds true. Since then it has bounced back from the support at $5400-$6000 multiple times. A pattern from 2014 is being repeated which may last for 413 bars (each bar is 1 day).
Which means bitcoin may remain bearish for the rest of the year.

If the support breaksdown, the next level will be around $3000.

Although once the downturn is over it may go beyond $120000

Sadly but this is the destiny of cryptocurrency. Although it is so bad to hear some news regarding this kind of news, well, let us all embrace what we are having. That's crypto, that's life.

Looks like I agree with your statement here, as this sideways trading is prepping up and might create a new trend towards $7000. Otherwise we are going back to the $5800-$6000 range and then the cycle repeats itself. So we really need to what how everything unfolds in the next couple of days. And that's what we love all this TA and speculations in the market, we have pedictions but we really don't know whats going to happen and everything can flip in a matter of minutes.

The bulls have managed to regain some control after refusing to let BTC fall below the key support level of $5,800.

Yesterday, price did again test yearly lows, wicking $5,860 before being propelled higher to the top of the range at $6,550 which we currently find ourselves in.  On the 4H we have made a double top and price has again wicked the higher extremity of $6,636 - if you dial down to the 1h, you can see that a small sell off happening.

This is to be expected after a 13% surge in price from the lower end of the range.  We’re still printing lower highs and lower lows and the trend is still bearish but as we come back down, it will be important to see how BTC interacts with the $6,200 range.

If we enter into sideways consolidation here as we have done so previously at this level, we will be looking closely for signs of strength to indicate a leg higher, pressing up to $7,000.

If we break through this level we’ll be looking to short back down to $6,000 and possibly below depending on how the price unfolds – these are our musings but it is still too early to tell. Caveat

BTC bounced just shy of the 23-fib level and will as expected, continue its downward trajectory further. We’ll be keeping our eyes set on a few key levels as we make our descent - we could be in for a bit of turbulence.

As price nears $6,265, this will be a region to watch since we have historically bounced twice from here before. We are expecting price to break through without too much of a fight however and the next stop will likely be close to $6,100 - $6,000.

There may indeed be a bounce at this level as well and we will be looking closely to see how the price action unfolds.  There may be some short-term counter-trend trades which present themselves but we will also be looking for shorting entries as the prevailing bear trend ensues.

Buckle up ladies and gents

 

ETF Delay
By now I’m sure a lot of you would have felt the sting of the market’s overreaction to the SEC announcement of delaying the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF decision. The ETF is backed by the Chicago Board of Exchange BZX Equities Exchange (CBOE) and has been praised by the cryptocurrency community for its efforts in attracting institutional investment into the budding blockchain industry.

The Commission explained that the Securities Exchange Act provides that it can extend the 45 days period from publication if it finds it “appropriate to designate a longer period” so it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change.

“Accordingly, the Commission, pursuant to Section 19(b)(2) of the Act designates September 30, 2018, as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change.”

This move by the SEC is a positive sign in the opinion of the CIM team as it shows that the SEC is seriously considering the ETF application. The gears of bureaucracy are grinding away, they only way they know how – slowly. The SEC could have disregarded VanEck-SolidX BTC ETF application and focused their valuable time elsewhere, but instead they chose to allot more time to this matter. Think about that before you decide to panic sell.

Prominent CNBC crypto commentator Brian Kelly said “If you’re selling today after this decision, it’s the wrong way to do crypto investing. There is more to this story than just an ETF, A little spoiler alert: On September 30th, they will likely postpone it again because the market’s not ready for it and the SEC hasn’t had all the answers to their questions yet.” One of the more lucid comments to come out of the CNBC studio.

Other Numbers
We recently reported on the decline in cryptocurrency spending noting that it had dropped over 80% in the past year. Today the DEA came out and announced a 90% drop in the usage of cryptocurrencies in illicit black market trades. This may very well just be the DEA tooting their own proverbial horn but it would certainly explain some of the decrease in crytpocurrency spending. If the numbers are assumed to be correct then there has actually been an increase in the usage of BTC and other cryptocurrencies in e-commerce.

OTC brokerage firms have said that although volumes are down in cryptocurrency order books, the OTC market is still flourishing. Some OTC desks have estimated that OTC volume makes up at least 50% of the daily cryptocurrency volume traded daily. One of the reasons traders use OTC brokers is the expediency they offer to execute a trade, paid for in the form of a seller’s discount.
A reasonable barometer on the sentiment of sellers can be the amount of discount they offer on their trades. In March of this year sellers were offering discounts in the order of 7-8%, indicating the urgency with which they needed to get rid of their BTC. At the moment the discount rate is sitting at about 2%, a stark improvement from the situation in March.

The current situation seems to be better than March however, we are still in a bearish market and the discount rate could very well rise again. As such we are approaching with caution.

In the likely situation of another ETF delay the current bear trend could linger around for a while like a bad smell. As previously stated we will be shorting strength and diversifying risk out of our portfolio by going long on BNB too.

Prepare for the unexpected

It now seems evident that we are clearly in a wave 3 down which would mean the relief rally from 5800-8470 was a corrective ABC in nature, meaning that once this 5 wave down structure is complete, it is only the beginning of a larger correction and not the end.

We want to point out that We have no intention of buying the ensuing wave 4 but only looking to short any strength, preferably in the 6.6-6.7k region.

It is no secret we have been calling for an end of bear market target at 3.2k which has been brought up a few times before.

Whether this happens or not is trivial as we are active traders, and trade what we see, which in this current climate, there are not too many bull cases to be made.

Good point, we haven't seen a true bloodbath yet, even falling from 20k to 6k is nothing in comparison to 90% drop.

I do not fully understand what is going on but the situation on the market drives me crazy and cause me to seriously think whatever I will just sell everything I haven't quit for some time? Until the prices will recover...

Can't remember which media site used a really gruesome picture around the time of this OP, too. By then of course I'd already been desensitised to this overused "bloodbath" phrase, but I keep wondering why people don't use phrases of similar impact when BTC spikes about the same too (6%) to its most recent high. Had BTC truly dropped to this year's low within a week of its ATH, then yeah sure, I'd be okay with all the bloody references. People still haven't lost their appetites for hyperbole it seems.


Not sure if I'm reading well, but this thread stopped out all the trades. So why are you congratulating anyone who followed? =p Also, you said BNB historically outperforms in bear cycles but BNB has only really been around long enough to experience 1 bull and 1 bear cycle, hasn't it?

The bitcoin price is back to 6500 USD.Is this a "bloodbath"?Let's hope that the support level is around 6000 dollars.I would think about a bloodbath only if bitcoin price goes under 3000 USD.There's no room for hysteria.Just HODL and relax.I don't care about the ICE launch.Everything that Wall Street does about bitcoin adoption will eventually hurt bitcoin.OP,don't be so optimisitic about the Intercontinental exchange.

🚨🚨 https://www.coingecko.com/en

Most people that are trading last year or those traders really stops. Bitcoin is undergoing a bloodbath until now. And I don't know when it will regain its position for us to win trades and so get our money back for reds. Bitcoin will stay at the red side, that's the truth. So, just hodl til the etf is confirmed.

It was horrible considering the % term drop from 32 to 2$. But current situation is totally different and it is not termed as bloodbath. A small correction in process but should be good in coming time and soon we will see the btc regain its 8k position soon and thing will be more form the investors perspective.

That makes everyone relief isn't it.  

Its not the figures that really matters but the % drops which decides what kind of bloodbath it is exactly. I am sure there are more people like you who has seen worst bloodbath like that and where the % drop was more than 90% because at that time the values were too less and they could have been easily manipulated to any price they wanted to. Currently the crypto is far safer because it is too costly too fluctuate it artificially and move the prices as the way they want. It can be done but not on huge scale so people should understand that its not that bad currently.

Though I think it was helpful with your analogy, the title of the thread doesnt suit the current situation. This is not bloodbath and I think it will happen when the BTC reaches its all time high again sometimes in the future.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you

If we were only half right the last time then we were ten times right this time.

The bulls put in a solid effort but it was becoming increasingly obvious after the $7,129 resistance could not be breached that we would be resuming the downtrend and returning to lower levels.

We can’t lay claim to the fact that we saw it dropping all the way down to $6,377 in one aggressive move, but we did foresee a drop coming.

With our short position opened at $6,850 now closed off at around $6,621, we’re certainly not complaining! 👍

For those of you who followed  – congratulations and nicely done.

A 6% bloodbath? I remember $32 down to $2. A drop of over 90% is a bloodbath in BTC.

A lot of negative people criticizing the state of the crypto market.  We are at 7k a bitcoin, that is a massive amount compared to a few years ago.  We should be more optimistic about how far bitcoin has come and not be crying about the drop from 20k.

BTC POPS

BTC has popped roughly 3% from the $6,910 level and is nearing the most recent high of $7,129 on the 1H.

Whilst we did break the $6,910 level, the bulls have succeeded in propelling BTC higher after price collided with the previous $6,836 wick high as outlined on the chart.

We must admit, we were expecting price to sink a little lower and hit the $6,770 level however, we’re still ahead of the game and are not letting perfect get in the way of good.
I didn’t play this long trade but we’re looking intently at the price action to plan our next move accordingly.  As always, I will keep you all posted.