Topic: BTC China Endgame?? (Read 4254 times)
FTFY I fucking love daytrading. I live for crash days!
Eventually I would get run over, which is why this is not sustainable for me long term. I've told myself a few times, these are the last times I will day trade against fiat. But some of these broad movements were predictable enough, and I see no reason, while this market has such little liquidity and no good leverage trading platforms, to not take advantage. I am not overly risky with my strategy.
I don't know enough about the demographic and mindset of the average Chinese investor to comment on these things, really. As for big money, why not other assets? Is BTC not still highly speculative? Does government action matter not? I can't say this sounds particularly convincing to me -- sure, for some, but this all seems very, very speculative.
If the big guys wanted out, btcs would already be trading at less than $200 IMHO. AFAIK, there are no other viable investment assets in china. Btc is highly spec from the POV of regulation. The second worst case scenario has already happened in china. Other countries are unlikely to follow IMHO.
I do see a use case for btcs from the POV of exporters, people with foreign accounts and the rich who want to get money out of china. From this viewpoint, I'm happy to hold long term. In the short term, I'm afraid volatility rules the day.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
So i have come across some dude thats rich because of hitting jackpot at casino, that means i should go to casino every day? dream big right?
Apparently, you dont even have half a brain.
You must not even have half a brain because everything is traded. Commodities, energy, stocks, bonds, currencies, etc... Trading is an essential part of any market.
The reason for the massive volatility in bitcoin right now is because it is still a relatively illiquid market. Also, trading platforms have not matured to the level that more sophisticated trading is possible. Trading is not gambling if you can hedge you trades in a derivatives/options market. Right now bitcoin is too new to take advantage of good hedging, but that doesn't mean that it will never be. If adoption rates increase, then the volatility will decrease and trading will be less risky.
However, trading is here to stay.
Wait so you spin day traders to trading in general ? awesome
Who else is going to trade right now??? The banks sure as hell aren't touching bitcoin yet.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
Nice. And I'm taking the bait. All those guys trading are living pay check to pay check. The guys that are making the real money setup the system that tells them how to trade.
The wealthy guys are buffet, soros, chanos, Paulson, ackman etc... They pay day traders to execute their strategies.
That much is obvious to my little half brain. Maybe I can learn from you.
Its no longer the case. Big guys use Algotrading.
Everytime i hear of day traders, i think ...."unemployed" champ. Yes since they can have live data feed and trade on computers, kids think they can gamble the market and make money. Then they start reading about trading, going to seminars that teach them "how to get rich - its so easy even your gramma can do it".
Algotrading still needs human involvement. Hell, there is "algotrading" going on right now in the bitcoin market with bots.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
So i have come across some dude thats rich because of hitting jackpot at casino, that means i should go to casino every day? dream big right?
Apparently, you dont even have half a brain.
You must not even have half a brain because everything is traded. Commodities, energy, stocks, bonds, currencies, etc... Trading is an essential part of any market.
The reason for the massive volatility in bitcoin right now is because it is still a relatively illiquid market. Also, trading platforms have not matured to the level that more sophisticated trading is possible. Trading is not gambling if you can hedge you trades in a derivatives/options market. Right now bitcoin is too new to take advantage of good hedging, but that doesn't mean that it will never be. If adoption rates increase, then the volatility will decrease and trading will be less risky.
However, trading is here to stay.
Wait so you spin day traders to trading in general ? awesome
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
So i have come across some dude thats rich because of hitting jackpot at casino, that means i should go to casino every day? dream big right?
Apparently, you dont even have half a brain.
You must not even have half a brain because everything is traded. Commodities, energy, stocks, bonds, currencies, etc... Trading is an essential part of any market.
The reason for the massive volatility in bitcoin right now is because it is still a relatively illiquid market. Also, trading platforms have not matured to the level that more sophisticated trading is possible. Trading is not gambling if you can hedge you trades in a derivatives/options market. Right now bitcoin is too new to take advantage of good hedging, but that doesn't mean that it will never be. If adoption rates increase, then the volatility will decrease and trading will be less risky.
However, trading is here to stay.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
Nice. And I'm taking the bait. All those guys trading are living pay check to pay check. The guys that are making the real money setup the system that tells them how to trade.
The wealthy guys are buffet, soros, chanos, Paulson, ackman etc... They pay day traders to execute their strategies.
That much is obvious to my little half brain. Maybe I can learn from you.
Its no longer the case. Big guys use Algotrading.
Everytime i hear of day traders, i think ...."unemployed" champ. Yes since they can have live data feed and trade on computers, kids think they can gamble the market and make money. Then they start reading about trading, going to seminars that teach them "how to get rich - its so easy even your gramma can do it".
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
Nice. And I'm taking the bait. All those guys trading are living pay check to pay check. The guys that are making the real money setup the system that tells them how to trade.
The wealthy guys are buffet, soros, chanos, Paulson, ackman etc... They pay day traders to execute their strategies.
That much is obvious to my little half brain. Maybe I can learn from you.
Living paycheck to paycheck. LOL!!!!
You are just mad about the volatility. Traders are here to stay. I repeat again in case you don't understand: THERE ARE ONLY GOING TO MORE TRADERS IN THE FUTURE NOT LESS.
Kid, capitalized letter doesnt mean your words are more creditable.
Noone would argue there will be less day traders. Every body know games against odds are losing games, yet more ppl go to Casino everyday.
Got that?
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
Where did their money come from to begin with? If I had money, I wouldn't be day trading. If I got in at $1, I'd be holding. I got in during the April crash and am up ~ 16000% since. You must admit, BTC/USD and altcoins are much easier to day trade than other markets. What pisses me off sometimes about the anti-trading crowd here is that many of them are comfortable with their BTC holdings. Those of us who entered much later are not. I am young and live pretty much paycheck to paycheck, so I never, ever could have gotten anywhere near where I am in terms of accumulation if not for trading.
I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.
I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.
The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.
Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.
No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.
How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)
No need for getting personal. This is a speculation thread. My opinion is as valid as yours. OTOH I'm not hostile to your views. I don't see why you should be hostile to mine. It's called a discussion. Just chillax a little.
Btw, I'm not bullish on china. I just think that the selling pressure has probably moderated. I don't think we are going to see china push btcs up from here. I do see the big guys in china with the real mullah holding however.
I see growth in the ROW. See: www.bitcoinpulse.com. A 7% weekly growth rate in wallets imply a doubling of wallets in ten weeks. I don't see that kind of growth in any other sector on planet earth.
I'm sorry you live pay check to pay check. Overall, you could still be hurting your future profits by eating your current profits.
From the perspective of a weekly compound rate of 7% in wallet growth. I'm holding at least ten weeks for wallets to double.
One of the reasons why I think the little guys have already converted is because they believe the CCP will ban cny conversions. These guys have already acted.
Why would the remainder stay? To understand you have to see the world through the eyes with the big bucks, have foreign accounts and are running export businesses.
Imagine you are friedcat. Would you convert to useless cny? I think not. You need some to pay rent, wages and electricity. But the rest of it you want in btcs. Why? Tax free and easily moveable offshore if the proverbial hits the fan. Plus Btcs are likely to appreciate given current wallet growth rate. Same logic applies to other chinese exporters.
I don't know enough about the demographic and mindset of the average Chinese investor to comment on these things, really. As for big money, why not other assets? Is BTC not still highly speculative? Does government action matter not? I can't say this sounds particularly convincing to me -- sure, for some, but this all seems very, very speculative.
If you're trading to accumulate more bitcoins, day trading is not a safe way. There is no such thing as predictable market, especially when there are market movers. You can read news and predict rational behavior which does not help you crap for predicting market movers action.
If your goal is to get as many bitcoins as you can now then buy in at near bottom of a crash. Dont sell with the hope to buy back lower.... This is much less risky and your bitcoin stash will keep growing. Its all about future gains.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
Nice. And I'm taking the bait. All those guys trading are living pay check to pay check. The guys that are making the real money setup the system that tells them how to trade.
The wealthy guys are buffet, soros, chanos, Paulson, ackman etc... They pay day traders to execute their strategies.
That much is obvious to my little half brain. Maybe I can learn from you.
Living paycheck to paycheck. LOL!!!!
You are just mad about the volatility. Traders are here to stay. I repeat again in case you don't understand: THERE ARE ONLY GOING TO MORE TRADERS IN THE FUTURE NOT LESS.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
Where did their money come from to begin with? If I had money, I wouldn't be day trading. If I got in at $1, I'd be holding. I got in during the April crash and am up ~ 16000% since. You must admit, BTC/USD and altcoins are much easier to day trade than other markets. What pisses me off sometimes about the anti-trading crowd here is that many of them are comfortable with their BTC holdings. Those of us who entered much later are not. I am young and live pretty much paycheck to paycheck, so I never, ever could have gotten anywhere near where I am in terms of accumulation if not for trading.
I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.
I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.
The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.
Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.
No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.
How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)
No need for getting personal. This is a speculation thread. My opinion is as valid as yours. OTOH I'm not hostile to your views. I don't see why you should be hostile to mine. It's called a discussion. Just chillax a little.
Btw, I'm not bullish on china. I just think that the selling pressure has probably moderated. I don't think we are going to see china push btcs up from here. I do see the big guys in china with the real mullah holding however.
I see growth in the ROW. See: www.bitcoinpulse.com. A 7% weekly growth rate in wallets imply a doubling of wallets in ten weeks. I don't see that kind of growth in any other sector on planet earth.
I'm sorry you live pay check to pay check. Overall, you could still be hurting your future profits by eating your current profits.
From the perspective of a weekly compound rate of 7% in wallet growth. I'm holding at least ten weeks for wallets to double.
One of the reasons why I think the little guys have already converted is because they believe the CCP will ban cny conversions. These guys have already acted.
Why would the remainder stay? To understand you have to see the world through the eyes with the big bucks, have foreign accounts and are running export businesses.
Imagine you are friedcat. Would you convert to useless cny? I think not. You need some to pay rent, wages and electricity. But the rest of it you want in btcs. Why? Tax free and easily moveable offshore if the proverbial hits the fan. Plus Btcs are likely to appreciate given current wallet growth rate. Same logic applies to other chinese exporters.
I don't know enough about the demographic and mindset of the average Chinese investor to comment on these things, really. As for big money, why not other assets? Is BTC not still highly speculative? Does government action matter not? I can't say this sounds particularly convincing to me -- sure, for some, but this all seems very, very speculative.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
So i have come across some dude thats rich because of hitting jackpot at casino, that means i should go to casino every day? dream big right?
Apparently, you dont even have half a brain.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
Nice. And I'm taking the bait. All those guys trading are living pay check to pay check. The guys that are making the real money setup the system that tells them how to trade.
The wealthy guys are buffet, soros, chanos, Paulson, ackman etc... They pay day traders to execute their strategies.
That much is obvious to my little half brain. Maybe I can learn from you.
Also, if you are buying during a crash and then holding that is probably a buy and hold. Trading after the crash may be hurting your overall position. Just my two cents. 
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I have come across several wealthy traders in my life (energy traders, FOREX traders, bond traders, etc...). Traders are needed in order to provide liquidity to the market and for price discovery. Not everyone can be a "buy and hold" type person or there would be no liquidity in the market. If bitcoin ever becomes mainstream, there will actually be MORE traders than there are now since investment banks & hedge funds will have teams trading bitcoin on the open market. Not to mention there will be a robust bitcoin derivatives market as well.
This should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
Where did their money come from to begin with? If I had money, I wouldn't be day trading. If I got in at $1, I'd be holding. I got in during the April crash and am up ~ 16000% since. You must admit, BTC/USD and altcoins are much easier to day trade than other markets. What pisses me off sometimes about the anti-trading crowd here is that many of them are comfortable with their BTC holdings. Those of us who entered much later are not. I am young and live pretty much paycheck to paycheck, so I never, ever could have gotten anywhere near where I am in terms of accumulation if not for trading.
I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.
I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.
The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.
Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.
No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.
How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)
No need for getting personal. This is a speculation thread. My opinion is as valid as yours. OTOH I'm not hostile to your views. I don't see why you should be hostile to mine. It's called a discussion. Just chillax a little.
Btw, I'm not bullish on china. I just think that the selling pressure has probably moderated. I don't think we are going to see china push btcs up from here. I do see the big guys in china with the real mullah holding however.
I see growth in the ROW. See: www.bitcoinpulse.com. A 7% weekly growth rate in wallets imply a doubling of wallets in ten weeks. I don't see that kind of growth in any other sector on planet earth.
I'm sorry you live pay check to pay check. Overall, you could still be hurting your future profits by eating your current profits.
From the perspective of a weekly compound rate of 7% in wallet growth. I'm holding at least ten weeks for wallets to double.
One of the reasons why I think the little guys have already converted is because they believe the CCP will ban cny conversions. These guys have already acted.
Why would the remainder stay? To understand you have to see the world through the eyes with the big bucks, have foreign accounts and are running export businesses.
Imagine you are friedcat. Would you convert to useless cny? I think not. You need some to pay rent, wages and electricity. But the rest of it you want in btcs. Why? Tax free and easily moveable offshore if the proverbial hits the fan. Plus Btcs are likely to appreciate given current wallet growth rate. Same logic applies to other chinese exporters.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
Where did their money come from to begin with? If I had money, I wouldn't be day trading. If I got in at $1, I'd be holding. I got in during the April crash and am up ~ 16000% since. You must admit, BTC/USD and altcoins are much easier to day trade than other markets. What pisses me off sometimes about the anti-trading crowd here is that many of them are comfortable with their BTC holdings. Those of us who entered much later are not. I am young and live pretty much paycheck to paycheck, so I never, ever could have gotten anywhere near where I am in terms of accumulation if not for trading.
I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.
I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.
The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.
Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.
No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.
How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)
No need for getting personal. This is a speculation thread. My opinion is as valid as yours. OTOH I'm not hostile to your views. I don't see why you should be hostile to mine. It's called a discussion. Just chillax a little.
Btw, I'm not bullish on china. I just think that the selling pressure has probably moderated. I don't think we are going to see china push btcs up from here. I do see the big guys in china with the real mullah holding however.
I see growth in the ROW. See: www.bitcoinpulse.com. A 7% weekly growth rate in wallets imply a doubling of wallets in ten weeks. I don't see that kind of growth in any other sector on planet earth.
Agreed.
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).
In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.
You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.
BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.
I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.
Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.
Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.
I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.
The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.
Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.
No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.
How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)
No need for getting personal. This is a speculation thread. My opinion is as valid as yours. OTOH I'm not hostile to your views. I don't see why you should be hostile to mine. It's called a discussion. Chillax a little bro.
Btw, I'm not bullish on china. I just think that the selling pressure has probably moderated. I don't think we are going to see china push btcs up from here. I do see the big guys in china with the real mullah holding however.
I see growth in the ROW. See: www.bitcoinpulse.com. A 7% weekly growth rate in wallets imply a doubling of wallets in ten weeks. I don't see that kind of growth in any other sector on planet earth.
As a western 20-something year old Bitcoiner, let me tell you what those Chinese people really are thinking. Didn't we have enough of this nonsense on r/bitcoin?
Bitcoins are not consumed. They can only be held and sold.
Rationalize it all you want, making an asset less liquid is bearish. Making an asset more liquid and accessible is bullish.
Bitcoins are not consumed. They can only be held and sold.
Rationalize it all you want, making an asset less liquid is bearish. Making an asset more liquid and accessible is bullish.
Same goes for cny. And cny production is greater than Btc.
The rich guys already have heaps of cny and apartments.
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