Topic: BTC crashing, under $200 and falling fast. (Read 1888 times)

What are you even talking about? You just really work on your reading skills.
I said, I think there is manipulation, you said, that is not possible.
I made a guess, you made a very distinctive statement, that is by the laws of logic not provable.
I never said, I understand any of this, I never said, I want to play with the "big guys" aka the idiots who make simple statements about these complex things. You just did that, in your last posts.
Isn't that, what the whole financial sectors is about, making nice little easy calculations about things which are much more complex?
I actually learnt some basics about finance e.g. calculations of risk and I was really shocked, that this is how people make decisions.
But sure, I know you are the pro. I hope you don't jump of a big building, like all this other pros in 1929

Thank you very much. Very informative!

I'm out, however it looks like it's just at $200 now. May be a little more drop left in it yet though. I'm definately short at this point.

Yep, that's why usually it is asked from people like you to prove that what they say is true rather than asking people like me to prove it's false

You are a good example of why there is such a volatility with bitcoin: You don't understand the first thing about finance but you want to play with the big guys.
You have real nice and easy explanations to simplify a world too complex for your undrestanding, and then you'll blame it on the finance guys when you realize, a bit too late, that it doesn't work like that.

You just showed, that this is not how you work.
It's just simple logic, that you can't prove that something doesn't exist.

You are just a great example of what kind of people are working in the financial sector and why it crashed in 2008.

this last falling scared me, but I will not sell.

Actually, I don't.
If an explanation makes sense to you, you should be able to understand it and explain it yourself, which you admitted you can't.

At least, that's how I work: Understand first, then talk about it...

I never said, that I know that it is price manipulation, my exact words were:


Do you see the difference?

That's impolite of you. Moreover, you disagreeing with me doesn't necessarily make me an idiot, but behaving like that tells a lot about you. You may want to think of the implications of that.

And what to say about your argument "I don't know how this works, but I know it's being manipulated" ?  What adjective would best fit that?

Whatever. Just ask your friend to explain how this works to you.

Well, a common mistake that I can see underlying in your question is the fallacy of the single cause
See here for details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy_of_the_single_cause

What has been happening is that we are in a bearish market for quite some time now.
This trend has been quickening its pace since January 3rd.
Why? I don't know. People get tired of the price decreasing and decide to cut their losses I suppose.
At some point, market pshychology has to be taken into account.
Check this here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/02/121602.asp

So, after such a long time in a bearish market, people still with bitcoins are holding, expecting the price to bounce up.
And then, something happens. What? I don't know. Maybe that news I posted before about the Russians, maybe some big holders decide this is enough, maybe something else (I checked the Bitstamp btc to see if they had hit the market and coud have caused this, but they're still being mixed.)
Whatever it is, it forces the trend down even more.

Then panic rises. people start selling, stop orders are triggered, etc.
But in the mean time, people are buying a lot. Never saw a volume like yesterday, and today's volume will be even bigger, seeing how it started the day.

So, basically, this is panic time. No manipulation here. And, I would add: if some had managed to manipulate the price, that someone lost a lot of money those last 2 days (that's the risk, and that's why pros wouldn't manipulate this market.)

Where will it stop? Noone knows.

We at CryptoCoins hedge fund have decided to keep holding the little bitcoins we still have, and wait for a rebound to step in with the cash.

I am posting here, because you are obviously an idiot.
Your statement: "I don't know, how to do it, so, it can't be done", just shows that you are very arrogant. I hope others are not so stupid to mistake arrogance for expertise.
Over 10 years experience in finance business doesn't mean anything. A friend of mine also works in finance business for some years. I don't think, he would call him self an expert. Not after the stories he told me, about what he is actually doing, but I am sure it looks good on his CV.

If you are sure, it is not a price manipulation case, than show me, what else caused it.

I am all bitcoin, however, nicely hedged with some leveraged stop short orders.

I bet hardly anyone is 100% fiat right now after that dip, that would take some balls.

I didn't make a a website. I hired people to do so.
In the team, we also have someone with 2 master degrees: finance and trading, someone else with 2 master degrees also: finance and risk management, someone else with a master degree in economics, etc.
So yes, that makes us freaking experts.

You're right. My experience is all in Bitcointalk. You got it all here. 
Check this out here: https://nxtforum.org/index.php?action=profile;u=554
Or here: http://cointelegraph.com/news/112356/exclusive-key-negotiator-in-bter-nxt-hack-speaks-out
Or here: http://bitcoinist.net/cryptocoins-hedge-fund-nxtinside-gives-birth-to-a-new-partnership/
Or here: http://www.contrepoints.org/author/dom-p
...


Since you adminitedly don't understand how this works, why exactly are you trolling here?
If you're so sure this is a price manipulation case, just explain how this is done. Or just leave it to pros.

So, you made a website, so you are an expert on finance?
I just have to take a look at your (short) posting history to see, that you are not.
Your statement is also pretty absurd.
So, there is this one strategy and it is not  working on Bitcoin, so it is impossible, that the price is manipulated? Are you really serious with that statement?

Thinly traded? Bitcoin had never seen this kind of volumes. Never!


People like me are in the finance business. I am actually comanager of a hedge fund in Bitcoins, been working in the banking and finance business for over 10 years now, and am the CEO of Crypto Finance Analysis Consulting.

So, unlike you, I do undersand how these things work, and I can actually explain how prices can be manipulated.
It's been done with gold, for example:

A few banks agree on a strategy (the equivalent here would be the top 5 to 10 exchanges agreeing on such a plan)
During certains periods of the day, when the volume is known to be much lower than at some other times, they put sell orders to push the price downward. They lose money at that point, but since they can predict the volumes from years of experience on that specific market, they know the volume with rise within a couple of hours.
Anyway... Since they push the price downward, stop orders are automatically triggered, pushing the price further down.
Then, the volume starts rising again, but at a low price. The banks buy the gold and the price slowly recovers.
Ready for the next operation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/gold-fix-study-shows-signs-of-decade-of-bank-manipulation.html

Why doesn't it work for Bitcoin?
- The history isn't long enough
- The price volatility is too high
- The volume volatility itself is too high, so there's no way to predict it
- The volume is not big enough for such players, who are playing of much larger ones, several dozens billion dollars per day.

It's not the middle of the night across the globe ya know.

What most people like you don't understand:
There are people out there manipulating prices of stocks or even currencies long before there was Bitcoin. Just open your eyes and you will find examples for that.
It doesn't matter, that Bitcoin is a new technology, since the exchanges work the same way as everywhere else.
When I told people some years ago, that there are people manipulating stock prices, they told me, that is not possible. Today I can show them a court decision right here in Austra, that a stock was manipulated.
So, don't be naive, just because you don't understand how they manipulate this prices, doesn't mean they can't do it. There are people doing this shit for decades. (and no, I can't tell you how exactly they are doing it, I am not an expert either)

In a thinly traded market in the middle of the night, stuff like this can happen. That's how we got from $205 to $152 in a few minutes.  Now things have settled out around $180. But that's still down $25 from earlier in the day, and the $200 barrier has been broken for the first time.

I don't buy that.
There aren't two ways to make the prices fall: Sell a lot at a low price.
That means you need to own a lot of bitcoins to start with, and dump them at a low price.

Now what's the interest of doing that? Hoping that the price will crash much much lower than the selling price so buy rebuy low. It's a hell of a bet.
If the market swallows the orders (and it did swallow $200,000,000 worth of orders yesterday) without starting a crash, the plan fails. To succeed, such a plan needs to not find a resistance in the market. Usually, there are some. So that's extremely risky. And since all of this cannot be forseeable in details, people doing that would need to keep many Bitcoins in reverve in case the pump needs to be restarted again. That means they need to be losing money with the rest of us.

It is really hard to tell.
I heard sometimes, 2015 will be the year, the US-government will try to destroy Bitcoin. Maybe it is that.
There was the explanation that, it goes down, in December because people are selling BTC to buy gifts, but that is over now.
The explanation that still makes the most sense for me is: There are some speculators, who make a lot of money with a falling price and it is their doing.