Topic: BTC difficulty going down - page 2. (Read 3198 times)

Hi,

Assumption:
1. Difficulty rises because blocks are being found faster.
2. Block are being found faster because historically the following happened:
2.1 People started creating mining rigs.
2.2. People started to pool those rigs.
2.3. ASIC miners were added to the pools
2.4. ASIC technology now pushed to the limit creating some pools of 6 PHs (e.g. CEX.io)

Now 6,000,000,000,000,000 lottery tickets per second is a lot. Difficulty will certainly increase to reach the new balance. In the game of numbers, difficulty does not care, it can increase to a point where all the silicon in the world would not be enough. It's like the enemy the more you hit it the stronger it becomes.

What if people quit the pools and went back mining solo? CEX.io (and i'm not taking a shot at the guys, just an example), will drop from:
6,000,000,000,000,000
to
    44,000,000,000,000

this will be the largest single mining source and difficulty will come down to match their rate of generation.
Everyone mining solo is trying their luck. Say there are 10 people each mining at 1 GHs, each one has a given chance to find the block. All 10 of them has the same chance, they are not together, the chance is not 10 times that of one person.

Payout wise it is the same: the amount of BTC you expect to make solo in X time, and the time you have to spend on a pool making BTCs, are the same values numerically. One is a lump sum, the other is installments.

Any comments on this?