BTC Halving Effect??? | Bitcointalksearch.org

Silberman

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Quote from: Lirnan on November 10, 2019, 08:24:14 AM

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

Bitcoin is not litecoin, you cannot expect that an altcoin displays the same behaviour as bitcoin, even if litecoin is a good coin it does not compare when it comes to the trust bitcoin has from investors, however it seems many are expecting the price to go up abruptly just after the halving happens and the markets do not move like that, it is likely it will take months to see a positive movement in the market as the whales are not going to move the market up just when everyone is expecting it.

ashmodeus

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i have no idea about why LTC halving make a price dropped , but according to the fact , history , speculation and prediction , since first btc halving , price always tend to go up.
just ignoring about what happened on LTC, because they are different.
but well, probably affect of halving will not happened quickly, but as the time goes , tend to buy will incrased constanly .

smyslov

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Quote from: Lirnan on November 10, 2019, 08:24:14 AM

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

I don't think we are going to see the same scenario, we cannot compare Litecoin experience to Bitcoin experiences, Litecoin's achievement, performance and price depends so much on Bitcoin, and so are all the other coins in the market.
We can check the history after the halving and you'll see that every Bitcoin's halving is a giant step towards it's adoption.

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Yet another halving read...

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53109224

peter0425

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Quote from: Lirnan on November 10, 2019, 08:24:14 AM

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

never compared bitcoin to another altcoins in regards to halving effect because Bitcoin is the most outstanding and pioneer currency that can bring fortune to all altcoins.

litecoin fails due to lack of supports since there is no big progress in this past months.

while bitcoin has been consistently on top and maintaining the value upto $8k until now.

Distinctin

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Quote from: barota on November 17, 2019, 12:35:28 PM

halving does not effect market till now . because reward mining now even start of halving are same .after start of halving always supply bitcoin will decrease day after day ;then for sure prices bitcoin can have a good oppority for surge and rise again . before halving by 3 month or less the market can have some different compared to current market

You can't expect for its sudden/immediate effect. If you could look into the effect of the previous halving, it takes almost a year after halving the market prices rise and in no doubt that it will result in the same. But of course, we could still think that the trend might in big different by now or next year and it doesn't warrant us that halving will lead to bullish. Can't expect too much high otherwise, we feel disappointed.

barota

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halving does not effect market till now . because reward mining now even start of halving are same .after start of halving always supply bitcoin will decrease day after day ;then for sure prices bitcoin can have a good oppority for surge and rise again . before halving by 3 month or less the market can have some different compared to current market

daarul50

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Quote from: drachman on November 16, 2019, 12:02:03 AM

Quote from: danherbias07 on November 13, 2019, 09:54:23 AM

Negative effect for miners since they will be having half of what they are getting from the bitcoin mining reward.

They are expecting the price to be doubled also since it must reach the need to pay for the electric bill that will be used for mining and some spare for necessities and other payments.
Maybe that is what you are looking forward to? The increase in price of bitcoin because it should still be equivalent to how much miners should make.

Miners do not dictate the price of bitcoin the ones that dictate the price are those that are buying it and selling it and they do not care at all about the miners costs, if the price goes down to the point it is not profitable for them to mine anymore then they have the option to stop mining for a while, this will make the remaining miners more profitable or they can decide to keep mining bitcoin with the hope that in the future the price will be higher and they can sell for a profit.

but here is the scenario where miners did not interested anymore in mining bitcoin because the rewards are not worth.

what do you think will happened? they are leaving bitcoin mining and switch it to more profitable mining . the price could get dropped even worse after the halving because of this problem -sorry if i am wrong about this- .
as i do mining when it is all profitable , we can not hold it longer as the expense such as electricity must be paid right away.
it won't be a good invesment if you continue paying the expense with your own money while holding bitcoin that possibly get dropped and instead covering all the expenses things in the mining business could become messed up.

i don't know really sure , this is just my thoughts about the exaggerated bitcoin halving vibes.

Hippocrypto

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Quote from: yulionoo on November 17, 2019, 12:48:57 AM

I also agree with the opinion of the majority of bitcointalk users who say bitcoin will go to the moon after halving in May 2020. because if we look at the history of bitcoin bitcoin has the same pattern as before. if we look at the year 2012 bitcoin also halved then in 2013 bitcoin increased in price to $ 1000 and then in 2016 bitcoin also halved and in 2017 reached the highest price of $ 20,000. by looking at this fact I also believe after halving bitcoin going to the moon.

If we based the pattern on the occurrence of fluctuations, then we'll be expecting a better future for bitcoin value after 3 years of bearish market. The halving effect was not so accurate, so it needs a lot of time to see an effective results thereafter. As a visionary, year 2020 would be a good projection once final halving comes to success.

BitHodler

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Quote from: yulionoo on November 17, 2019, 12:48:57 AM

by looking at this fact I also believe after halving bitcoin going to the moon.

Maybe. The difference however is that more people are prepared for a block halving and I think that those who wanted to buy in have already done so. I'm strongly of believe that this halving will disappoint a lot of people.

It reminds me of how hyped up people were last year about a bull run continuation.... whenever people get hyped up and prepare themselves for such event, the more likely it becomes that the market turns against them.

I'm prepared for disappointment just like how I was prepared for much lower levels after the multi month support of the $6k mark. It's common sense to not follow the mass blindly, which I won't be doing right now.

kanayaTabitha

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Quote from: yulionoo on November 17, 2019, 12:48:57 AM

I also agree with the opinion of the majority of bitcointalk users who say bitcoin will go to the moon after halving in May 2020. because if we look at the history of bitcoin bitcoin has the same pattern as before. if we look at the year 2012 bitcoin also halved then in 2013 bitcoin increased in price to $ 1000 and then in 2016 bitcoin also halved and in 2017 reached the highest price of $ 20,000. by looking at this fact I also believe after halving bitcoin going to the moon.

If the history will repeat, the bitcoin will likely to rise more than 20k at 2021 which is 1 year after halving which is like the lastest halving before. But i'm sure the whales already have the strategy which can trapped new investors and newbie and take advantages from them. We have to be careful even the history is already made, we still have to be careful with the market movement because the movement is reall unpredictable.

yulionoo

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I also agree with the opinion of the majority of bitcointalk users who say bitcoin will go to the moon after halving in May 2020. because if we look at the history of bitcoin bitcoin has the same pattern as before. if we look at the year 2012 bitcoin also halved then in 2013 bitcoin increased in price to $ 1000 and then in 2016 bitcoin also halved and in 2017 reached the highest price of $ 20,000. by looking at this fact I also believe after halving bitcoin going to the moon.

goaldigger

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Quote from: rdluffy on November 10, 2019, 05:33:05 PM

You said you are a newbie but you have a good knowledge
Everyone is expecting a huge increase in price, right?

But look Litecoin, it's a great example that the market isn't follow our logic everytime, we have to be careful about buy and sell because even a situation like that can have a contrary effect

Only time will tell us what's going to happen with halving

The history of halving with bitcoin is fine but we have no guarantee on a future halving and its right we saw LTC to remain down despite of the update so its good to wait next year before expecting too much. There are so many high prediction before and after the halving but only bitcoin can tell us where we are heading, we have to wait in time while we are investing as well.

Capt00

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If we could read HERE we can say that and probably experience amazing price increase 6months -1 year after halving is done. If we are going to invest right now, its a very long wait for us before we get profit and may our patient dried off. It is clear to understand and base of its previous records, we can't expect bullish this year, may it come late next year if halving will finally launch by May.

STT

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The bigger gain was in effect from halvening over time and it takes time for the block reward being changed to be of any real difference, lag momentum or inertia however you want to frame it; I dont believe the bottom line to supply and demand is instant on that halvening day. Theres a price rise before that real change but its speculative and less reliable I guess. I dont reckon we should lean on that too much.
   So theres halvening in 2020 and in 2021 is when I'll count it as being something that matters vs other factors, by then people wont even talk about it it will just be part of the background. Its a vice not a switch, it'll matter over time and also I think Dollar is the reverse its becoming more unwound but like strands breaking on a bridge or something unpredictable, I count it as politics not economics or really maths or we'd have puked on negative interest rates already.
  The big supply of Bitcoin is the market itself and holders, I dont reckon block reward and any alteration is as important as it once was. Way back the market was the miners, the common users mined and so its all change.

exstasie

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 16, 2019, 02:46:04 PM

Quote from: cr1776 on November 10, 2019, 08:57:37 AM

The simple result of the halving is that if new supply decreases and demand stays flat (or increases), then the price will rise.

But the supply isn't actually decreasing, only the rate of production of newly mined coins. And I would suggest that there's no such thing as a free lunch in the world of finance, which means that it is NOT a given that bitcoin will increase after the next halving.

The supply to market actually is decreasing. Miners are no doubt selling some of their coins to cover overheads, debts, and take profit. The halving directly reduces the amount of miner supply available for sale.

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 16, 2019, 02:46:04 PM

The litecoin price after its last halving is a good example of that, and I'm glad that was brought up because it clearly shoots down the argument that bitcoin halving = major bull run.

LTC did have its halving pump. From December to April, it rose 550% against USD and 175% against BTC. Sellers distributed before the actual halving so they could sell into strength.

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 16, 2019, 02:46:04 PM

I was just commenting in another thread that the last halving was in July 2016, and bitcoin's price didn't start taking off in a major way until the beginning of 2017.

You're only thinking in terms of parabolic bubbles. The price of BTC doubled in the 3 months preceding the July 2016 halving.

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Quote from: cr1776 on November 10, 2019, 08:57:37 AM

The simple result of the halving is that if new supply decreases and demand stays flat (or increases), then the price will rise.

But the supply isn't actually decreasing, only the rate of production of newly mined coins. And I would suggest that there's no such thing as a free lunch in the world of finance, which means that it is NOT a given that bitcoin will increase after the next halving. The litecoin price after its last halving is a good example of that, and I'm glad that was brought up because it clearly shoots down the argument that bitcoin halving = major bull run.

I was just commenting in another thread that the last halving was in July 2016, and bitcoin's price didn't start taking off in a major way until the beginning of 2017. You'd think that if there was a cause-and-effect relationship, bitcoin would have immediately spiked right after the halving, but it didn't.

Anyway, I don't know what's going to happen with bitcoin come May of next year, but it'll be interesting to see how the price reacts, if it does at all. Maybe then this question can be put to rest for good.

exstasie

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Quote from: Russlenat on November 16, 2019, 04:50:06 AM

We can't compare BTC against LTC halving because BTC is the king of the market and its been dominating the market and even beat the entire altcoins with its market dominance.

Dominance doesn't matter. The relationship between reward halving and price speculation is stronger than that. LTC rose almost 200% against BTC into April this year. That means that halving hype made it a much more attractive investment than BTC. Halving hype is real!

It's possible the June rally was "pricing in" the halving and we won't get a similar pump next year but I think that's unlikely. We're still 6 months out from the halving and we've already been correcting downwards for 5 months. That leaves lots of room for a rally during Q1-Q2 next year.

Russlenat

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Quote from: Lirnan on November 10, 2019, 08:24:14 AM

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

It's not expected because people are optimistic that as the halving is nearing, the price of bitcoin will rise.
We can't compare BTC against LTC halving because BTC is the king of the market and its been dominating the market and even beat the entire altcoins with its market dominance.

For me, I am expecting the price will rise, but since we never know what lies ahead, let's just accept whatever happens as this market after the bull run has been very unpredictable.

If you think there will be a pump before and during the halving, you should feel free to start accumulating now.

drachman

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Quote from: danherbias07 on November 13, 2019, 09:54:23 AM

Negative effect for miners since they will be having half of what they are getting from the bitcoin mining reward.

They are expecting the price to be doubled also since it must reach the need to pay for the electric bill that will be used for mining and some spare for necessities and other payments.
Maybe that is what you are looking forward to? The increase in price of bitcoin because it should still be equivalent to how much miners should make.

Miners do not dictate the price of bitcoin the ones that dictate the price are those that are buying it and selling it and they do not care at all about the miners costs, if the price goes down to the point it is not profitable for them to mine anymore then they have the option to stop mining for a while, this will make the remaining miners more profitable or they can decide to keep mining bitcoin with the hope that in the future the price will be higher and they can sell for a profit.

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