Bitcoin Price Update for September 26, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Bitcoin is back in the 600 - 610 $ range following a short stint in the 590's $ last week. Despite what looked like favorable conditions for a downside continuation into our longer term ProTrade buy zones, this outcome never materialized as bulls moved in quicker than expected. Now we are back to playing the waiting game with the market given the near term forecast remains rather uncertain, although we think we are still well positioned currently regardless of where the market heads over the course of this week. We will stay long in the VST long trade, and will stay ready to catch more substantial dips if they materialize.
Despite the fact that it looks like we may be in store for a bit more choppy consolidation, we do think the market is getting ready to make a move in the not too distant future. Looking at the 12-hour chart below we can see that price remains within the symmetrical triangle that has been active since June, and we are now back above the pivot zone which provided support last week. Also notice that SCMR has painted a confirmed upside reversal after a cancellation printed over the weekend, and we are finally getting bright green candles once again. We also have active OTE long and short zones both above and below the market, as well as triangle trendline support and resistance that is closing in on price.
Conversely, the momentum oscillators remain rather unimpressive considering Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD attempts an anemic push over the zeroline. Additionally, the near term EMA's are still flat, the 200-period SMA is bearish and pushing lower, PPO is no longer showing buy signals, and market structure remains mixed. Regarding volume things are looking a bit better given total exchange volumes are showing a small buyers breakout overnight and the A/D line continues to push to the upside, although volume profile still looks unattractive seeing as though there remains a large notch sitting just above PoC between 570 - 620 $. The lower end of this range is still where we want to be longer term buyers, but for the time being it looks like it could be a struggle to get down there, which is why we are adjusting our VST ProTrade slightly to allow for more upside.
Generally speaking we remain longer term bulls on bitcoin, perhaps even more so now than a few weeks ago ("longer the base, higher in space"), but as has been the case over the past few months we are still in a waiting period. We cannot rule out additional spikes into the mid to high-500's $, which is why our other ProTrade long setups remain in effect, however we realize that we may not get another shot down there prior to a breakout above 610 $ so for now we are comfortable holding the VST position above that level.
GLGT!
https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/
