BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:
1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up
2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates
1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up
2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates
The one thing you seams to forget. Market does not estimates present. It always tries to calcualate 1 year ahead. Its not that everything bad needs to stop and we have to have flow of good news to see a bottom. Bottom will be 1 year before first good news from economy. Same was in 2008. The biggest amount of bad news was right on the market bottom. So if now "macroeconomic view looks like trash" it doesnt mean we have to go anymore lower.
Also bitcoin reached ATH 3 month before SP500. Its possible that bitcoin will reach the bottom 3 months before SP500 which will reach the bottom 1 year before first good news from economy.
Also fiats are going down at a rate >10% per year so sooner or later fiat denominated assets needs to stop falling. Its not regular recession. Its stagflation. Like in 1970-1980.
