Topic: BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks - page 2. (Read 4949 times)

Right now the "dumb money" people think they are smart enough not to sell into another "SR event". So I expect a slow painful downtrend aimed maybe even to single digits.

I'm not sure where you got the 1-2 years.  This kind of thing happens quickly.  If dumb money thinks the floor is collapsing, the sell off will be sharp.  It would be another SR event, followed immediately by the next bubble.

Sure, but this trick will take 1-2 years I guess. Right now everyone is too optimistic about Bitcoin, so we need way more time to cause "dumb money" to sell. I think 1-2 years are enough for that.

More likely is the smart money is holding back the bubble to violate trend lines and cause dumb money to sell.  They pick up as many Bitcoins as they want, and then the bubble starts.

Right.  So we'd be stuck in a tiny range.  That's highly improbable for Bitcoin.  So this chart's interpretation is suspect.

Ah I see what you said. Probably the $650 price could be a floor for the next "bubble", but this "bubble" has only 1-2 weeks to occur then. I don't see any "panic buying" like it was during the previous bubbles.

Look at your chart again.  The time between peaks is what you wanted to show.  But a picture is worth a thousand words, and this speaks more than you anticipated.

My chart shows time between peaks, like the OP's guess.
Not the "establishing floor", just time between peaks.

Time between peaks either 214 or 235 days. That's why I drew 2 lines on previous peaks.
We have passed 214 days time point already, probably we already have started the next wave of the downtrend.
But we still have 1-2 weeks to the 235 days time point. Maybe we'll have a bubble during these weeks? I don't think so.

What your chart shows is the floor after each peak is established 214 days after the previous peak.  That would make the current price the floor for the next bubble burst.  But that assumes the days between bubbles is always constant.  I don't think anyone ever took that seriously.  It's just a coincidence.

The first 2 peaks on my chart are below $32 - the peak of 2011.

It doesn't matter where we should have a peak. The time for this "bubble" is over. Gonna crash hard. Have a nice bagholding, folks 

1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

This chart doesn't look remotely realistic.

What did send the price from 1 to 31? from 15 to 265? from 100 to 1200? in all cases, the answer is - nothing really, just more people buying that selling. Sure, once the rise is on you can pick some good news piece and attribute the rise to it, but really, it's just backwards thinking. There's always a plethora of good news and you can never predict which one would be a tipping point.

Here is my chart about this:

Last bit of armchair analysis before I leave this alone:

https://flic.kr/p/o3gv4d
(green marks the lowest price in between peaks and blue marks approx the 'last low' before the next peak)

It seems that the closer the lowest price hits after a peak, the slower the next rally is from start to finish (bottom blue to pink peak). It seems the last low after peak was relatively far from each other, suggesting that the next rally will be a slowish one.

But this is really rule of thumb from 1000 paces back... its a bit dodgy but it might give an insight in the rhythm of the market.
Anyone else see a more conclusive pattern?

Last guess for a rally trigger: LTC goes on a rally and drops. People move their trading LTC back into BTC causing a price break though into $700 where all the sellers are taken out triggering the rally as there are very few sellers before the high 800 to 1000$.

OK, enough guessing! 

Thanks for the info! Looks good with the log charts, much clearer:)

However, I make 33 weeks from 30th Nov to be next week (based on manual count on calendar and in MT4). Maybe this is from the different price peaks in Stamp v Btc-e. What day was the peak in Stamp? I make 40 weeks = 6 Sept.

fixed the flickr thing, the pics are free for all now.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/68042863@N00/14643202325/in/set-72157645251151818

The only realistically possible thing that could happen which could send the price shooting up like that in the next couple of months (that I can think of at least)  would be Paypal and/or eBay announcing a roadmap or definite timeframe for integrating Bitcoin.

I'm personally expecting to see some mass adoption (china '13 style) in developing nations soon with people like https://www.37coins.com/ who are attempting to make an impact in the next months. And apparently Android phone makers are going to make a big push into places like India soon which would mean wallets like http://www.kncwallet.com/ might spir some buying power into action.
I wouldnt be surprised if a large economy nation or regulatory body comes out with some surprising good news in the next months that creates more bullishness. Having said all that, nothing that would neccessarily start a rally. But you never know, the butterfly effect can be very effective in creating buy (and sell) ralleys.

Also, all the new retailers now accepting BTC could start a steady tide of buyers that dont spend all their BTC at once creating some new buying pressure - ie if person x decides to buy something for 0.074BTC from merchant Z, they might buy 0.08BTC from fiat, then spend the 0.074B leaving small residual amounts of BTC unspent as they're not likely to cash that small amount back into fiat. Assuming some of the retailers dont transfer all their BTC back into fiat soon after getting it, that would also create a residual amount of BTC left in their wallets that were bought but not sold. So, say 99% of BTC bought to be spent gets converted back into fiat by merchants, then theres a new flow of buyers who are 'hoarding' by default creating an extra buying pressure that wasnt there, even 6 months ago. Even if it's only 1% of BTC spent in retail, its still new buying pressure.
I doubt this is a reason the price will shoot up any time soon, but I think its a new note worthy 'buy' factor that creates a 'bottom' in the price that is v hard to penetrate.

Even if the rally doesnt happen, it would be the first time in years a peak didnt form at this period / cyclical interval, which would be weird:p

Fact is they can manufacture 65nm ASICs. Once developed, it's cheap to mass produce them. Desperate times take desperate measures, right? I'm pretty sure they're mining Bitcoins themselves and that's why they changed their refund policy and are now paying back with bitcoins to the customers who paid for their preorders with bitcoins. They're employees might even get paid unofficially with bitcoins.

I just wondering, do butterflylabs pays their employee well ? I mean, my point is .. I'm not quite sure if I would buy a product from a foxconn slavery factory style ...