$40,000 top this year, that's possible. But $11,000 as the bottom? That's most probably not going to happen. Not within the year, much less next year. 2024 is the halving year. Although there might be a dip months before the halving, I think $11,000 is a bit of an exaggeration. After the halving, the price will most likely be generally going up so $11,000 is very unlikely.
You're correct, if Bitcoin was meant to dump to $11,000, it should have happened last year as that was the only time the market was very bearish that the price of Bitcoin could have dropped that low but since it didn't happen that means it won't happen again.
If Bitcoin market was to become very bearish this year due to some bad news, the fall in Bitcoin price can only take it to below $20,000 and then a recover has to happen almost immediately. Bitcoin won't fall to as low as $11,000 if China or US ban it again.
By the end of this Bitcoin bull market next two years in 2025, Bitcoin would end up trading above $100,000 and that's because it's overdue to be trading that high. It won't happen this year or next year but it'll be happening in 2025 so we should plan towards then.