BTC To raise before SEC decision or after?

mrcash02

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Quote from: pooya87 on December 13, 2018, 12:49:37 AM

in any case i do expect rises in 2019 so we may see a rise with or without ETF by February anyways and it doesn't have to be "insider trading" either. we will have had more than a year of drop, how much longer can this last!

Based on what do you expect a rise with or without ETF in 2019, for an example?

I think there should be an extra element to lead BTC to a new rise, something that we lack right now, without any predictions of having it soon...

roosbit

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Afaik any significant changes are likely to come after sec makes decisions that favor btc or crypto.... As at now we just need to hang in there and let the low price influence demand to go up and possibly prices will follow😊

ophyrim

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There is 2 possible scenarios

1- SEC approve BTC ETF and BTC start to go to the moon very fast with big volume
2- SEC refuses it, the price of BTC bottom after a big sell wave and start to recover slowly and go to the moon slowly.

But in both scenarios the rise of BTC is inevitable

Epokicecool

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Quote from: pooya87 on December 13, 2018, 12:49:37 AM

at this point only ETF approval can affect bitcoin price, its rejection is not a new thing and is completely expected by majority of the market participants and on top of that bitcoin is already over dumped and doesn't have much room left to go down anymore so i don't expect any kind of major drop in case they did what we all expect them to do!

in any case i do expect rises in 2019 so we may see a rise with or without ETF by February anyways and it doesn't have to be "insider trading" either. we will have had more than a year of drop, how much longer can this last!

I guess you are right, most ppl are expecting a rejection, hence an unexpected approval might fuel some interest enough for us to go back on the green side. Yeah it has been a sad year in terms of pricing, but on the otherside we have a lot of companies now exploring blockchain, and I personally think that we have bottomed out here, just waiting for some big news for a pump.

pooya87

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at this point only ETF approval can affect bitcoin price, its rejection is not a new thing and is completely expected by majority of the market participants and on top of that bitcoin is already over dumped and doesn't have much room left to go down anymore so i don't expect any kind of major drop in case they did what we all expect them to do!

in any case i do expect rises in 2019 so we may see a rise with or without ETF by February anyways and it doesn't have to be "insider trading" either. we will have had more than a year of drop, how much longer can this last!

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: BitHodler on December 12, 2018, 06:49:00 PM

Makes sense. I have always believed that whenever an ETF would have been approved, the price would increase beforehand due to insider trading. As long as that doesn't happen, there is very likely no ETF next year.

It was also quite interesting to see how just before Bakkt announced that they wouldn't launch this year but in January of next year, the price tanked hard. I doubt this was coincidence.

so if price goes up it's insider trading, and if price goes down it's also insider trading?

the price tanked a week before the announcement from bakkt, and bitmex research noted an an "unusual uptick in miners selling", possibly to finance the bcash hash war. i'm guessing the crash had much more to do with miner supply and the bcash split than some conspiracy theory around bakkt.

the market actually bounced when bakkt's delay was announced, which i think was just a coincidence---it was a relief rally. but i just don't think the market cares about bakkt at all.

BitHodler

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Quote from: bkbirge on December 12, 2018, 12:51:28 PM

Price will already be baked into the market long before they make the decision which is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point. That's my opinion.

Makes sense. I have always believed that whenever an ETF would have been approved, the price would increase beforehand due to insider trading. As long as that doesn't happen, there is very likely no ETF next year.

It was also quite interesting to see how just before Bakkt announced that they wouldn't launch this year but in January of next year, the price tanked hard. I doubt this was coincidence.

Makes you wonder about what's going to happen next month, because another dump before their launching date will likely mean another delay. A pump in that scenario means it's approved and they can start....

The Sceptical Chymist

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I'm a believer in relatively efficient markets, meaning that new information gets incorporated into the price of an asset quickly as the new information gets disseminated. But you know what? Sometimes the information gets incorporated into the price before the information becomes public--funny how that happens.

In the case of the ETF decision, I'm not sure how substantial that decision is going to be for bitcoin, but my guess is that whatever movement it generates (up or down) will start happening before the SEC announces its decision. It'll get leaked to people with deep pockets, and we'll see the change before February. And hey, this crash we've all been experiencing might already be the market's reaction. The decision could already have been made behind closed (but not locked) doors in a room with many flies on the wall.

I'll bet it's going to be rejected. I'm hoping to be surprised on this, but the cynic in me is yelling in my ear that the ETF's fate is already sealed. We'll see.

peter0425

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Quote from: bkbirge on December 12, 2018, 12:51:28 PM

Price will already be baked into the market long before they make the decision which is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point. That's my opinion.

Yeah, probably its already price-in so there's a chance that the price would go that further as everyone have been predicting. Besides, we're getting tired with all this bull-shit coming from SEC. I think Bitcoin will survived without the ETF and maybe in the long run if will harm the market. So I'm thinking that it's better we don't have this kind of things around, It's better if you continue to be decentralize as opposed to to having a ETF's that the custodian might take advantage of in the future and making Bitcoin centralize at some point.

bkbirge

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Price will already be baked into the market long before they make the decision which is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point. That's my opinion.

Epokicecool

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Quote from: rickadone on December 12, 2018, 10:55:05 AM

Quote from: Epokicecool on December 11, 2018, 02:01:20 PM

So we all knew the SEC were going to delay the ETF decision again, however this will be the last time they can delay it, and a decision will be made sometime before February 2019. How do you guys think this will affect the price of btc and crypto overall. Will it have as strong impact as last year when the big guys jumped the future train?

I doubt it will have a huge impact on the price whatever the outcome is. The price could go up or down but nothing major, we have seen bitcoin lose almost %50 in value this past month and considering that type of drop I doubt there will be a 80%+ increase in price even if SEC accepts the ETF. That is a more long term investment instead of a short term gain.

We need the ETF to just make bitcoin more legal and more legit, not just put money in it but also tell the world Bitcoin is here to stay and not going to leave anytime soon. With something like ETF it is highly unlikely that bitcoin is a "tech project" of someone, it actually proves that bitcoin is a big deal and it will be a world changing thing in near future.

Hence, I think we need ETF to be accepted for long term benefits but short term gains won't be big enough to matter.

You sir are correct, for longterm growth we most definitely need a major player like the SEC to acknowledge btc. I am more optimisic on price than you are though, as I do believe an approval would spike the price. As we dropped so low this year I do think at least a 100% increase is not too hard. But we shall all see how it plays out.

rickadone

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Quote from: Epokicecool on December 11, 2018, 02:01:20 PM

So we all knew the SEC were going to delay the ETF decision again, however this will be the last time they can delay it, and a decision will be made sometime before February 2019. How do you guys think this will affect the price of btc and crypto overall. Will it have as strong impact as last year when the big guys jumped the future train?

I doubt it will have a huge impact on the price whatever the outcome is. The price could go up or down but nothing major, we have seen bitcoin lose almost %50 in value this past month and considering that type of drop I doubt there will be a 80%+ increase in price even if SEC accepts the ETF. That is a more long term investment instead of a short term gain.

We need the ETF to just make bitcoin more legal and more legit, not just put money in it but also tell the world Bitcoin is here to stay and not going to leave anytime soon. With something like ETF it is highly unlikely that bitcoin is a "tech project" of someone, it actually proves that bitcoin is a big deal and it will be a world changing thing in near future.

Hence, I think we need ETF to be accepted for long term benefits but short term gains won't be big enough to matter.

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Quote from: Baofeng on December 11, 2018, 07:57:11 PM

Any 'good' news is needed right now to uplift what we currently witnessed. The market is getting worst by the day so a Bitcoin ETF will really do good things like influencing the market and could probably start a bull-run.

We don't need good news. In a bear market, good news just provides a bounce to sell into.

What we need is for sellers to get exhausted. You can tell from the hash rate that miners are capitulating in addition to weak handed investors. Bitmex Research reported an unusual uptick in miners selling. The BCH war may be relevant here, but I suspect miners shutting down operations are also liquidating crypto assets and that's strongly pressuring the price down as well.

Baofeng

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Quote from: Epokicecool on December 11, 2018, 02:01:20 PM

So we all knew the SEC were going to delay the ETF decision again, however this will be the last time they can delay it, and a decision will be made sometime before February 2019. How do you guys think this will affect the price of btc and crypto overall. Will it have as strong impact as last year when the big guys jumped the future train?

Any 'good' news is needed right now to uplift what we currently witnessed. The market is getting worst by the day so a Bitcoin ETF will really do good things like influencing the market and could probably start a bull-run. But this is all speculation and not proven unless we really hear the good news coming from SEC. So let's see how it goes and just hope for the best.

Quote from: bintangkejoraku on December 11, 2018, 06:52:00 PM

Quote from: b3j0 on December 11, 2018, 06:36:58 PM

I hope there is a decision that can make the price of bitcoin rise, so that by mid-2019 it will be the end of the bear market and bitcoin can recover. I am very confident that ETF will be a reason for Bitcoin to recover.

that is the hope of all bitcoin holders, but I am still very curious, what is the reason they continue to postpone decisions about ETFs. this is their last chance, they can't delay anymore.

I can only speculate that maybe someone from behind is really putting pressure on SEC to delay it, or they're really looking at how the market operates because they have been denying ETF's for quite sometime now because the 'market is prone to manipulation'.

bintangkejoraku

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Quote from: b3j0 on December 11, 2018, 06:36:58 PM

I hope there is a decision that can make the price of bitcoin rise, so that by mid-2019 it will be the end of the bear market and bitcoin can recover. I am very confident that ETF will be a reason for Bitcoin to recover.

that is the hope of all bitcoin holders, but I am still very curious, what is the reason they continue to postpone decisions about ETFs. this is their last chance, they can't delay anymore.

tomahawk9

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Expectations are low since the SEC kept delaying their decision this year, people have lost interested in the whole thing, but if it were to gain momentum again in february then we should expect the market to react to the "hype", and we would probably see a bit of a surge in the price days prior to the announcement. Though, honestly, I don't expect it to get approved just yet, I think we're gonna need tighter regulations in order to see a bitcoin etf.

b3j0

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I hope there is a decision that can make the price of bitcoin rise, so that by mid-2019 it will be the end of the bear market and bitcoin can recover. I am very confident that ETF will be a reason for Bitcoin to recover.

exstasie

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Quote from: Epokicecool on December 11, 2018, 02:01:20 PM

So we all knew the SEC were going to delay the ETF decision again, however this will be the last time they can delay it, and a decision will be made sometime before February 2019. How do you guys think this will affect the price of btc and crypto overall. Will it have as strong impact as last year when the big guys jumped the future train?

I doubt it. Back then, the market believed there was a strong possibility of ETF approval. As we saw with the last few rounds of SEC news, the market no longer responds much, probably because no one expects approval anymore.

In a couple months, we'll still probably be in a bear market. I expect the ETF to be rejected, so if anything maybe bears will use it as an excuse to spark a sell-off.

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Quote from: ivanst776 on December 11, 2018, 03:00:25 PM

SEC and ETF is the best thing to have now.
once that is being approve then we can see the market going up.
we all know that his thing is the only one who is keeping the red market now. once we have it then its a good thing.!

Sorry, but the SEC and an ETF are pure shit and fill up people's empty heads with hopium that the price will rocket up. It won't because you'll see the SEC reject it in February and we can then finally get rid of those who are in just to sell this event. I'm seriously glad that they technically can't delay it anymore, so no more bullshit from this point.

In the end, we never needed any sort of financial product to go up. We boomed hard more than once and will continue to do so in the forthcoming years. All this market needs is one spark and it ignites the whole space.

Xardasim

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Quote from: olubams on December 11, 2018, 02:24:37 PM

Quote from: Epokicecool on December 11, 2018, 02:01:20 PM

So we all knew the SEC were going to delay the ETF decision again, however this will be the last time they can delay it, and a decision will be made sometime before February 2019. How do you guys think this will affect the price of btc and crypto overall. Will it have as strong impact as last year when the big guys jumped the future train?

Whether they decide to approve or not, it does not have any effect if everybody in the market is just going about their business. The decision itself is not a determinant of the direction of price but the reaction of people to it. Based on current phenomenon, I don't are any major shift on price should SEC approval even happen now or in the near future.

I do not think so. All the candles we have seen so far are the reflection of human psychology and most of the time significant developments do not pass without affecting the price. The SEC's statement is one of them that everyone has been waiting since August. Bitcoin will certainly recover but I do not think the decision will be ineffective.

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