Topic: BTC will go back to $30k if Kamala wins - page 4. (Read 1111 times)

Well, this might be true because if the crypto community voted for Trump, and then he lost then that might give out negative sentiments towards the investors and holders hence, it might cause a sell-off. However, I don't think that it will reach $30,000 if Trump doesn't win. I mean we might see it reaching that price, but it isn't because of Trump losing but because we are entering the bear market.

TBH, I'm not familiar that Trump wants to free Ross and fire Gensler, but if that's the case then... I'll just wait for it to happen then. What will happen after the US elections? It will depend on who will win. If Trump wins, we might see a temporary increase towards the price of Bitcoin and other altcoins hence, that might be the reason for Bitcoin reaching another ATH. If Harris wins, it's hard to believe, but we might see a temporary market correction.

Whatever the case is, the effect of the US elections will be temporary only and after that, we will go back to normal.

I still don't know why some people always think political affairs has a big role to play concerning the growth of BTC, if it goes on a higher rate they'll say is either Trump or someone in the political sector and sometimes is because of the election maybe if the election is put on hold that's why BTC had to drop at price or whatever. Let's try for ones and see it this way, when all these news about the election, how Trump got shot or the conference debate, before all of these Bitcoin has been on the road running smoothly going down and getting back up, now we have Bitcoin at $72k does it mean is because of Kamala getting close to winning the election and all that happened to Trump that's the cause?  To me Kamala or Trump has nothing to do with the rise and fall of BTC price.

with how popular BTC ETF is (it dominates the entire spot ETF market) I don't believe it will go down to $30k. Like seriously people, do you think something as big as BTC, can just dump that deep meanwhile the ETF is selling like a hot cake, generated massive amount of profit for those big financial institutions that also buying BTC like there's no tomorrow.

with current state of BTC being considered legitimate as an investment around the world, it will not easily shaken just because certain candidate wins. there might be the case of people selling at news, yes. but i firmly believe the worst scenario would be just BTC going back to $50k level again and thats it. the demand for BTC is too strong.

I don't say that the US market is completely saturated. There's of course still some margin to grow. But this margin is much higher in other nations.

For example, it would be much bigger news than any measure in the US, if: 1) China legalized Bitcoin exchanges on the mainland or even in more special economic zones than just HK 2) India lowered the crypto capital gains taxes.

Where? There are a lot of things for example European and Asian nations and also for example Canada do very, very differently from the US, and very successfully.

One could even argue that the US copied the concept of Bitcoin ETFs from other nations, actually some UK dependencies and Brazil were first

I think also that for example Europe would copy much less from a Trump-led America. Trump has extremely low approval rates in most of Europe, there they see him as a crazy and increasingly senile populist. Even in Latin America (contrary to popular belief a mostly right-wing, quite elitist region) most media protray him as a bad example and mock him frequently.

Edit: Adding a source for the Trump global disapproval.

For example, in Sweden only 14% "trust" Trump, Germany and France are at 15% and 16%. That's even lower than the approval rates of the local extreme right (e.g. the RN in France or the AFD in Germany) ...

Would you, as a government, copy the decisions of a leader 70% or 85% of your population rejects?

Agree a bit, but I believe this rally is not only caused by the expectations of the US election. In reality Bitcoin, comparing with previous bull markets, is behaving "as expected" (after a slowdown phase like the one which lasted from March to September). And there were also some positive news from Microsoft and Hong Kong this week.

You're probably correct. I would not be surprised if Trump wins and -- maybe after a short rally -- massive "sell the news" profit taking tanks Bitcoin again, at least below the previous ATH (69k).

Well, to be fair Trump pump and Elon Musk pump, these are just stuff people use for personal gain. They can't just go to people and say "hey buy bitcoin because I want you to", that makes no sense, or say "hey buy bitcoin it will go up" and they will ask why you think it will go up. So they use these stuff, they say it's because trump talked about it, they say because Elon tweets about it, basically the yare giving BS answers to why they think it will go up and they fake their hype.

These people are already hyped, they just look for a reason to get hyped and ready for it, so whenever anyone does anything, they share that joy with everyone because that's exactly what they were looking for. Otherwise, it is so abundantly clear that Trump has nothing to do with crypto prices, if Trump says "I want it to go up", then he can't make it go up, but if he says that and you go buy because of it, then you make it go up, and it looks like he did that. So, don't listen to others and trade when you want to and they won't have power over it.

Bitcoin frankly would deserve a huge dip, if only one keeping it up would be trump. That's like worst possible fundamentals for a coin. I would hope that people would have more sense and let bitcoin prove it's own worth rather then wait presidents to pump it.

And funny enough, when it moons and Kamala is president, maga-hats will say it's because people have lost the faith in dollar. Because somehow in minds of trump supporters, everything good is because Trump is doing some dark maga magic, or when something is bad, it's because of who ever is the top democrat candidate at the time.

Why is it that Kamala Harris can determine the price of bitcoin or why is the US election a determinant of the rise / fall of bitcoin? Doesn't bitcoin already have its own cycle where every 5 years it will go up and next year it's time, right?

I know some US elections may have a little influence on bitcoin especially Trump won because he has always been pro bitcoin, moreover they are superior which I see on some social media then this can encourage a little influence.

But if Kamala Harris wins, I don't believe the price will drop above 50% then if it drops it has entered the bearish season, maybe that's what can be said and Bitcoin cannot ATH 2x than before.
Again, not sure it will drop that much because Harris won.

Unless you want to scare the sh*t off the average American voter , this is an awful prediction from somebody whose account is almost 10 years old on this forum.
I'm pretty sure you know how the price has been moving historically.
I'm pretty sure you know that the price has very good chances to go parabolic again, no matter who is winning.
And I'm pretty sure you also know that whoever becomes POTUS, he/she will have little effect on Bitcoin; it's the Congress that has power on that matter.


Well, naive people do vote, so...


I think you are not right in this. American businesses "just started" seeing Bitcoin as a good investment (yes, let's allow them some inertia, plus they will actually buy ETF, but still...)
Quite a big part of the rest of the world is copying America, so if America starts signaling the wrong direction... there may be a problem. (PS. America is not POTUS).

First, I don't think Kamala Harris is going to win this election, secondly I don't also agree that Bitcoin will just quickly slide down to $30k if she wins. Trump has more supporters than she which makes it very possible that he will win the election. Lastly, we can not even predict what will happen to  Bitcoin after Trump finally wins.

The whole Trump hype is hilariously naive I think. Which are the real advantages a Trump tenure can bring?

- "Not sell a Bitcoin" policy. Okay, that could perhaps lower the Bitcoin supply by 0,0000001% per day or so.
- "Fire Uncle Gary". That would benefit altcoins most. And Trump can't do that if he doesn't step down voluntarily. And even to propose a new SEC chair he would need Senate approval.
- "Free Ross Ulbricht". That's the only point I'm actually a bit more interested in. It would be mainly symbolic though.

But I wrote also in another thread that a position too friendly with the "crypto industry" -- and this means also the more dubious parts of it -- may bring even disadvantages. In Latin America we had a lot of Ponzi schemes based on altcoins which also made people wary about Bitcoin even if the only aspect they're related is that both use blockchains. So be warned: A high percentage of the society is still sceptic about Bitcoin, and if we want to convince them, scams won't help.

In addition, Bitcoin's future is not in the US. The past and the present maybe are, but the US has also one of the highest rates of market saturation (~20% crypto owners vs. < 5% in the rest of the world, with some exceptions like Argentina and El Salvador) already.

PS: The only risk I see if Harris wins is that of short sellers piling up again creating the environment for a panic dip with fake news and propaganda. This would however have nothing to do with the fundamentals. Only with some kind of short term sentiment.

I don't understand why Trump, Biden or Kamala get merit for Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin is growing because of halving and increased adoption, it's not growing because of their policies. I think that Bitcoin is on it's own right now but slowly it's getting regulated.

I'm afraid that many people like the idea of CBDCs and it's inevitable. I have talked with many people about CBDCs, including those who are politicians and also studied finances at universities like Oxford and Harvard. They vouch for CBDCs because the government will be able to monitor transactions and it will exterminate the problem of illegal transactions and money laundering.
From my experience, the majority of people aged 30 and above also vouch for CBDCs. The average response from people is that they fear nothing, they have nothing to hide and don't care if the government knows about their transactions. They think that CBDCs are a problem for criminals.

One thing I am certain is that, Kamala's victory won't guarantee bitcoin price dropdown. Yes, surely bitcoin will have a huge price pump if ever Trump wins over Harris but we can't assure that bitcoin price will definitely drop deeply once Harris wins over Trump. Or shall I say the price pump and dump of btc is never solely reliant to the US election, and if ever there is, it could only be a minor effect and is temporary.

If Trump wins as US President, there will be a change in Bitcoin price. I don't think there is any doubt that Bitcoin will outperform the 100k as predicted earlier. As he himself has commented positively on Bitcoin adoption. But what if he does not come to power? In this case, each person may have different opinions. But the bottom line is that Trump's outright support for Bitcoin doesn't mean Kamala will oppose it. As far as i know she has not made any negative comments about Bitcoin. That's why I think that if Trump comes to power, the price of bitcoin will increase quickly, on the opposite if kamala get the power the bitcoin market is a bit bearish and it may take a little longer, but the market will definitely run towards the bull run.

I agree with you that some Trump supporters are exaggerating about Harris being against bitcoin if elected, maybe she is not too friendly and interested in it but she is not too hateful towards it as many news are spreading. But between the two candidates, it's clear that if Trump wins, we'll get more benefits.
What people are more concerned about is their crypto policy after they get elected because that will determine the growth and future of the industry for the next 4 years or beyond. We could stagnate if Harris enacts tough policies, whereas if Trump enacts softer policies, we could move faster. That's what people care about and that's why they support Trump more.

I don't think it's as easy as if Trump wins= the price goes up a bunch and if Kamala wins= the price goes down a bunch. In theory Trump is going to make a more Bitcoin-friendly policy but he has also issued a shitcoin so it is not clear to me that it will not turn out badly for us a like Musk did in his day. More than the price, I am more concerned about Kamala's policy of implementing CBDCs and making bitcoin only buyable and transferable with KYC.

And Kamala is on power while the price is pumping like magic. What's giving you the impression that Bitcoin will depreciate to as low as $30k if she wins? If she's still on seat and Bitcoin is moving positively regardless, her return will not make much different. I have just observed that the people and their media are trying to use this against Kamala portraying her as Anti crypto forgetting that she never condemned or attack crypto. Of course, the media hype and fud will certainly cause the price to drop if she eventual wins but predicting $30k is extremely too low.

Well I do not hope this does happen. I do think it does not matter what president wins their American election we are going to see a big 'bull run'.
And I do think that it did already start. We were only $200 away from the new all time high. And I think this is going to happen before they get a new president.

You already know one thing for certain which is all of this is speculative.   A certainity upon the election regardless of whoever wins, no laws or policy is changing till January so again for real supply and demand we dont alter beyond speculative activity.   Bitcoin is already full of opinions and speculation on what might happen by every layer of usage, smallest entities on the blockchain to the largest operators, miners and holders of Bitcoin.

If I had to call where does this speculative activity peak for this year, it is probably in the hours of the election day.   When the actual result comes in its proper news even while it'll take months to decipher what actions may or not occur.  Even with the action I believe it takes time to find out what it really means, tons of theory and not alot of practical change.  Add in we are only talking about one country and its the entire world that matters far more for a globally used product like this and I dont rate the election so much but it will help the speculation, hype and froth behind the price moving.

More pump I guess and we're just seeing a glimpse of it right now.

Yeah, I guess so.
So whoever wins will still have that impact to Bitcoin's price and it's not going to be a dump but more of a pump IMO. Trump or Harris, whoever gets the vote of the majority to become the POTUS will have that good impact for Bitcoin's price and we're all going to love it. $30k is quite far from where we are right now and that's more than half of the price now. Still, the possibility is there to reach these lows but I don't think it will ever be that low post-US election.

The market has always been unpredictable as predictions/assumptions can be right or wrong. But looking at how Bitcoin has been moving lately without knowing the actual cause of this bullish movement (though there are speculations that it's all tied to the US election), I think the outcome of the US election might have an effect. I'm not really certain of your $30K prediction, but I think Bitcoin might drop to maybe $50K, if actual we still retain the $70K till that election day.

Lot of Bitcoiners are literally anticipating for trump to win, because I know majority liked some of his manifesto ( or should I say, his promises), that he has given to the Bitcoin community. So, if things eventually goes south, then w might see see the recent bullish movement going south as well.