Hello all,
We have the following service in development. I post here in order to integrate our efforts with the wishes of the community.
The essence of the prediction market is to offer contracts expiring every Friday, for predicting the USD/BTC exchange rate (volume-weighted average) on that day. The outcomes are in $1 granularity, ie. you may select a slot $43-$43.9999, and no matter what the exchange rate is, as long as it is $43.xxxx, you win. Otherwise, you lose.
We intend to offer the betting of a single slot, for up to 100x payout. We intend to offer a range contract for several adjacent slots, such as $40-$44.9999. We intend to offer binary calls and puts. Binary means that if you are right, you win the specified amount, regardless of "how right" you were. Our system enables also conventional calls and puts, which pay out more if you are more in the money.
The UI would be running on a webserver. Upon arrival to our website, you are generated a URL-based user account with a deposit address, credit balance and referral code. You are also prompted for a dead-man-switch address that will receive all the BTC in this account after a 2-month period of inactivity in the account. (It is of course possible to withdraw manually also.)
We will offer a large variety of contracts for each maturity, up to 3 months into the future. You can view and bet on the contracts easily, internally in our website. You will know the odds beforehand. You will be able to both buy and sell contracts. If you sell something you haven't previously bought, you are essentially writing the contract. In this case you deposit the maximum payout upon writing, and are therefore never liable to pay more. We also don't run a risk of our customers defaulting.
We have a proprietary software for setting the odds, and as long as we are teaching it how to work properly, you will only be able to bet BTC10 at any one time. There is no total maximum, however, but the software will adjust the prices of the contracts based on the volume and direction of bets. We will raise the maximum one-time bet limit as soon as we are comfortable, and aim to offer BTC100 as soon as possible.
To add credibility to the people behind this idea, I claim that I am the Chairman of a reputable financial institution and prove it here:
https://www.silverbank.net/index.php/en/meista
The syndicate behind this idea has raised BTC400 initial funding for concept and software development, and is willing to commit more if needed. If you know how we should proceed with this, please contribute here, or join the team. I will tip at my discretion the valuable advice you give in this thread, so please include your BTC address. If you are interested in joining as a programmer, service operator, marketing specialist, or financier, please contribute something here first, and then PM me. As for financiers, we have both stocks and bonds to offer. If you are familiar with MPEx, you know what I mean. Stocks get the net profits, bonds are limited-duration commitments to make good on the losses that the company makes.