Topic: BTCChina - Highest trading volume ever today - page 3. (Read 14229 times)

I think I saw somewhere that the buyer managed to suck up a healthy percentage of the asks at one point.  Now it looks like it's back to pretty much 50% balance volume-wise.

In my '2a' hypothesis defence I got to thinking about the utility of harvesting an exchange-worth of inventory for mixing operations and the coin-history varieties one would be likely to obtain in doing so.  I have not studied the analytic tracking methods in looking for taint much, nor the implementation(s) which exchanges use to manage their inventory though so I don't know whether such a haul would be of particular value or not.  Interesting to muse about though.

It is more about who is more impatient and active, buyer or seller i.e. who jumps the spread and hit ask or bid respectively.

You mean withdraw from Alipay? You can withdraw to Chinese banks, no fee.

Any idea how alipay / tenpay works for withdrawals ? I went to alipay but it seems to be only for registered business and not actually for clients so its strange that its offered as withdrawal method on btcchina.

Are you sure this is correct? Couldn't the markets move in lockstep because mtgox is dominant for price-discovery and the chinese just use USD/CNY rates to determine what a "sensible price is" and trade around that on btcchina?


This doesn't seem to be materializing. How soon should it happen?

It will only send you 1 email notice until you check into the thread and read the new replies since you were last there.

thing is: I don't want to "get notified". I want to see a list of threads that have had new posts since last time I checked whenever I feel like catching up to bitcoin. That's what the "show new replies" link at the top of the page does. If the list is empty (it never is), I'm done with the bitcoin forum

that notify-thingy sends a friggin email, man. Do you think I want 100 email per day in my inbox from bitcointalk???

1a:  Depends on whether the thief likes fiat more than BTC.  One way or the other, I would suggest that the thief would be better off to have any form of money that is not tainted, or at best has taint which can be written off with plausible deniability of responsibility.

2a:  Really?  I can think of no better a dilution pool to have then 100% of the inventory of users who happened to have coin for sale on an exchange.

3a:  OK.  Good to know that no hacking originates in China.

4a:  The most critical aspect would be how reliably the exchange maps it's large users to a positively know individual in the real world.  Mt Gox seems to be getting pretty good at it by now.

5a:  Does not seem like me to be a lot of money for someone who was well connected to criminal adventures...and/or good at his job.

6a:  That forms the basis of something to look for as evidence to strengthen or weaken the hypothesis that this event is somehow associated with the Bitcoinica thefts.

7a:  Some people are content to simply 'go with what they know'.  Others are more trail-blazing.

8a:  How well known is the operator (and operations of) BTCChina?  I've not cared enough to study it, but I didn't see any info on this thread yet.

9a:  I would say that the explanation that propels the belief and hope that an explosion in Bitcoin value is eminent is the one which usually wins out.  And any others will be roundly attacked.

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My musing about whether this event could be associated with various thefts was, if anything, a 'hypothesis'.  It was certainly not a 'theory'.

As you (cypherdoc) know, I sincerely hope that this is exactly what a lot of people want to think insofar as it is innocent and organic demand and indicates the start of a march upward to where Bitcoin deserves to be.  My nature generally is to take a close and jaded look from many angles before getting my hopes up.  While I like old adages generally, and the "Don't stare a gift horse in the mouth" one in particular, I often do just that.

I've been participating in a buying frenzy since I first made the realization of what Bitcoin meant to the world.

The fact that BTC are selling at only around a 10% markup means to me that the lowest ask is evaluating selling BTC here(taking into account typical fiat currency exchange fees) at near zero risk. I just wanted to encourage people to do their homework before they go participating in any sort of frenzy.

Even if it is all one person s/he is doing it for some reason. This reason might apply to more than 1 person in China and word is getting out somehow.

The sudden explosion in volume makes be believe that this is at most a handful of people buying bitcoin at btcchina. I wouldn't get too excited unless they can maintain this trading volume for at least a week.

geez oh mighty; almost 16000 btc volume in 2d.

2 weeks ago you could have moved small amounts of bitcoin from China internationally and actually make a profit- but the current price on btc China makes it uneconomical to do this.
If you want to move substantial amounts of money out of China based on the current market depth it would just be cheaper to get all the relevant paperwork (or find a loan shark living in the country you want to move the money to).
The sudden increase in interest in China is absolutely about Bitcoin as an investment.

nice.  altho i would say we completely agree.  thanks for illuminating Obama.

generally agree although everyone laughs at Geithner except perhaps Obama! everyone knows (secretly) that we are in a deflationary spiral (1930's style) but no one can utter the words or know when it will hit exactly. The Chinese know a good thing when they see it and so do I. BTC is what I have been waiting for and its implications for personal freedom go far beyond the raw economics (important that they are). They are doing exactly what I am buying as many as they can while they are cheap. However we will all be looking over our shoulders now at the FBI and the china fiewall to see what the "authorities "can do to stop this- because it is death to them. reg.

http://bitcoinpyramid.com/r/2314

Yep, I believe there are controls in China/HK where you can only move $5,000 per day out of the country without a bunch of paperwork and business invoices. India is the same, btcindia.com would also be a major exchange should it ever be created

I think #2 makes sense- if they are buying higher than the mtgox $ price then it wouldn't make sense just to transfer these bitcoins to mtgox and then convert them to dollars - the people buying are keeping these bitcoins.

so lets try and game theory this a bit more as to why this buying is occurring.

options:

1.  chinese are buying btc's so they can move their yuan out of china into a different fiat currency.
2.  chinese are enthusiastic about btc and are buying as an investment.

knowns:

1.  Chinese students laugh at Geithner
2.  world stock markets have had record volatility this month with more consecutive days of stock selling, 12 out of 13, since 1974.  it appears we're repeating 2008 all over again.
3.  Chinese economy is rolling over-numerous reports on Zerohedge about electricity consumption decreasing, loan growth slumping, commodity buying waning.
4.  gold is down 19% from the top. silver is down 43%. miners are down 56%.

i think the balance of evidence points to #2.  chinese students have understood and mocked the USD for years now.  they would be the first to understand and favor btc.  even the average chinese citizen has a better understanding of tech and money than the average American.  sorry guys, but true.

its possible #1 could be happening as buying a rising USD might make sense.  i know i've moved alot to USD cash but also alot to Bitcoin.  but given the chinese skepticism about the USD in that article by students, it seems less likely.

even if they are buying btc's for #1, its still bullish for Bitcoin b/c it is being used as a remittance vehicle.  this is what we've been saying all along.

Chinese citizens tend to save much more than Americans.  as we know, CB's worldwide have been cruel to savers in terms of miniscule interest rates.  they may think it makes sense to diversify out of fiat.  since the yuan is pegged to the USD, it too is rising as the USD rises.  this will decrease exports and i would argue the whole growth story has been a function of primarily Fed easing leading to a torrent of foreign debt based investment into yuan related investments.  this is now going into reverse.

why not buy gold/silver instead?  in general, the last 6 months btc has gone up relative to gold which has gone down. look at the dramatic statistics i've provided.

if the miracle China growth bubble is waning or in fact over, it would make much more sense that chinese would want to move their yuan out of China.  the easiest way to do this is via btc rather than buy metal which has to stay local and could be confiscated by a communist regime.

Chinese also love to gamble.  Bitcoin has much more potential than other investments.

as i said earlier, the lockstep movements of the gox and china charts suggest that the connection of btcchina to the outside world is relatively seamless w/o huge arbitrage opportunities having existed.  one might "expect" the goxusd price to move up in lockstep as well altho this is certainly not guaranteed.  in fact, a great arbitrage opportunity does now exist; and if #2 is true, means that chinese will somehow find a way to exchange yuan for usd's and buy the "cheap" btc at gox.

stock markets declining in May is a big warning sign that the trend has changed from reflation to deflation.  yuan is a peripheral currency to the world reserve USD and if you believe the primary trend has changed, as i do, then diversification of one's yuan is a logical move.

feel free to disagree or add anything i've missed.