Topic: BTCGarden Overview & Speculation Thread (Read 5079 times)

the order tracker somehow got abandoned and stopped being updated.
jody's blog is now an official tracker: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/bfl_jody/

the Chinese title reads: BTC Garden data center deploy scheme V1

there is no proof at all that this is happening! If you look at the ordertracker no one is getting orders since weeks!

I believe these are stock pictures, I think someone pointed that out somewhere else in their thread.

Just got around to poking about on the btc garden website...
http://www.btcgarden.com/deployment.jsp

I can't read Chinese, but they have pictures of what appears to be their data center.  My question is, are we looking at actual pictures of their data center, or are these stock photos of what they are planning to build?

It's way too optimistic to estimate ACTM can deploy Avalon clones before mid-Sept(it depends on Avalon's ship time), not to mention their own 28nm chips.

And whos getting them?

They are getting over 10 Th/s out the door per day now. Like it or not, they are boosting the global hash significantly.

How could we forget, we've only been reminded about that for over a year.

Guys you are forgetting butterfly labs will ship in two weeks.

Misleading?  This is a speculation thread, BTCGARDEN has stated their plans, I am using them as a guide to speculate.  I would say they are optimistic.  I'll go ahead and respond to your points so you know where I am coming from.  I am in no way attempting to be argumentative, I'm just justifying my views.


You would only be correct if the overall network hashrate was flat.  It has not been flat, it has not even been linear, it's been on an exponential growth path.  4000btc per day was the least optimistic number I posted.  I would bet 1btc that the real average daily btc mined continues to be ABOVE 4000.
http://blockchain.info/stats


http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate



a) I'll posit that knc delivers in mid October after a modest 3 week delay, and starts hosting at the beginning of October.  Due to the delay and refund policy, I'd guess they will refund around %50 of their orders as the mining rigs most likely won't achieve ROI (http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ has previous 30 day difficulty increase at 75%).  Why would someone keep a pre-order for a device when refunding would make them more money?
b) ACTM's earliest estimate for delivery is the END of October.  Mid-November is more realistic for devices to start showing up on our door step.
c) AM appears to self regulate their growth to <20%.  Their stated network target is to maintain 10% of the overall network.  I've been watching them closely (as have many) and don't expect them to push the network due to perceived effect it would have on hardware sales.
d) 100TH will most likely slowly increase hasrate and achieve 100TH by the end of September
e) bitfury only really sells in Russia and won't really start impacting the network until mid October
f) cointerra has no hope of delivering before December.  For the purposes of this discussion they are a non-issue.
g) Even if avalon got their $#!7 together that's what 40TH?
h) terrahash?

Optimistically none of the above will appreciably be in place in September, October will be a huge month and the network will continue to increase to 2000TH by the end of December.

This will give BTCGARDEN a chance at %35 -%16 over the stated time range before adding their second batch of mining equipment.  Making my dividend potential estimate possible. (though admittedly optimistic)

edit...
For those not reading my previous post, I'm speculating that we could receive up to 85% of our IPO price in dividends by the end of the year.  Even if I'm way off and we only receive %50 in the next 4 months, that's still an incredible return.

Your maths is misleading at best.

First, 'scaling it back' to 4000 is a poor representation of total bitcoins/day. The average is more accurately described as 3600/day.

The system is designed to release a block every 10 minutes and therefore 6 blocks an hour and 144 blocks a day. Each block is worth 25 bitcoins.

144 * 25 = 3600

More like 25,000/week

Second:

Hitting a hash rate target of 35% is questionable - a big feat indeed. As is calculating ROI by assuming BTCGarden could hold 35% from September 'til the end of December given what else is going on in the landscape.

You're assuming:
a) knc doesn't deliver any meaningful volume
b) actm doesn't deliver any meaningful volume
c) asicminer doesn't scale anytime soon
d) pico doesn't get its 100TH up
e) bitfury doesn't deliver any meaningful volume
f) cointerra falls flat
g) avalon chips never arrive
h) terrahash?

Bottom line: You won't be making 85% by December. I don't even know if you'd make 50%

If KnC meets it's targets in September/October we could see ~1PH or more on the network.  We also have HashFast promising to deliver by October as well. I doubt BTCGarden will ever get 35% of the network.

It seems to me that people don't realize how soon BTCGARDEN will be mining.


In ~40 days BTCGARDEN will begin hashing 200-300TH/s.  According to blockchain.info, 4925 btc were mined in the last 24 hours.  If we scale that back and assume 4000 btc are mined a day (28,000 per week) and BTCGARDEN hit's their goal of %35 network hash rate, that's 9800 btc per week in dividends or .00098/share.   So from the middle of september till the end of December, that is .01372/share returned in dividends (85% of IPO price).

WTF does avalon have to do with BTCGARDEN

It's going to be an interesting fall: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2868036

I assumed you talked about a 4k BTC order.

No, it executed about 3 minutes after I posted. 4099 shares.

What happened? Pulled I guess? It wasn't filled at least.