Our 3-month luck is 100% the fault of the block withholding. That effect will keep our 3-month luck down until that activity (most of May and early June) is no longer a part of the 3-month average.
With all due respect, that's ridiculous. Guild's 3-month luck will never reach 100% (99% + orphan) or above if the daily, weekly, and monthly values are sub 99% consistently, which they have been for months now.
The group that did the withholding is the ONLY EVER PROVEN block withholding to take place. And what happened? Their accounts were frozen with what few coins were not yet paid. They were notified, and after days of communication the problem was found. Their explanation and looking at their share history clearly pointed it was a software glitch related to a 32-bit integer overflow. It was discarding shares with a difficulty greater than 2^32 due to the overflow. 48 hours later they resumed mining on BTC Guild and after finding multiple blocks they had their accounts unfrozen.
And you put your thumbs in your ears yelling at everyone saying "everything is fine". Low and behold there
was a withholding attack underway even though it was innocent. I don't believe that there aren't similar issues, either intentional or otherwise, currently taking place on Guild. However, I'm well aware that detecting those actors and isolating them is near impossible. Don't take it personally, but shit is happening on your pool whether you'd like to admit it or not.
We are at 91.6% out of ~99% expected (orphans make 100% unlikely) for the month. That 1-month average has varied from 91% to 97% over the last 2 weeks. All it takes are a few long blocks to drastically change the averages. All it takes are a few really fast blocks to drastically change them right back.
This is true, but I'm watching the long term luck continue to drop. Previous to early 2014 Guild was
always a good percent or two above 100. I know there's been suggestion from users/talk of removing that stat all together. I'm glad you haven't because that would reek of sweeping the facts under the carpet.
They are going to swing more drastically and more wildly as time goes on, because public pools will be gone within a year unless something changes drastically in the mining ecosystem. All the major public pools are now under 20% of the network combined.
Short term variance is expected, especially in smaller pools. However, we all know the common arguement to the contrary is that the variance over time evens out. In this case, "over time" is showing that there are problems and the organic balancing of variance isn't occuring.
Before you lose your shit as usual, I'd like to sympathize with you. I love Guild, and I greatly appreciate you as an operator, full stop. I've been mining with you since Jan of 2012 and hate to leave, but it is what it is.
I thought Eligius froze and confiscated @400BTC from a block withholding miner? ( not sure if those coins where ever paid out to the miners that got ripped off)
