Absolute minimum floor right now is $50. Even self-confessed bears will be buying at $50 or above.
Nah, I think we could still see single digits easily.
Topic: Bubble? Growth? One goat's thoughts - page 2. (Read 4908 times)
Nah, I think we could still see single digits easily.
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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
Absolute minimum floor right now is $50. Even self-confessed bears will be buying at $50 or above. Remember that BTC is a currency, not a stock.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
I would say the absolute floor is more like 12 USD.
The 2011 bubble started at 1 usd stopped at 2x or 5x where it started, depending on if you end it at 2 usd or call that the bear trap and the actual end was when it leveled off at 5 usd. I would say it looks like this bubble started at about 12 usd, is the price going to go back to that level, or will it again level off at a point higher than it started, like 24 usd or 50 usd?
Absolute minimum floor right now is $50. Even self-confessed bears will be buying at $50 or above. Remember that BTC is a currency, not a stock.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
I would say the absolute floor is more like 12 USD.
$5 was the end of the bear trap.
In the template is something like a 1:3 relation between first selloff and new paradigm. That would leave us with a peak of roughly USD 100. It doesn't have to stick to those figures, what is important is that the general relationships apply and they certainly do when looking on the all time chart. After all the slope of the initial runup was kind of steep. So it would still hold even if the top were something like ~500.
I'm not saying bitcoin must adhere to the template, but I really think that if it does the all time chart is the most applicable.
You're proposing an eighteen month bear trap in the bubble pattern of an asset that's only existed for four years. You're proposing a bear trap that constitutes 60% of the asset's all-time trade history.In the template is something like a 1:3 relation between first selloff and new paradigm. That would leave us with a peak of roughly USD 100. It doesn't have to stick to those figures, what is important is that the general relationships apply and they certainly do when looking on the all time chart. After all the slope of the initial runup was kind of steep. So it would still hold even if the top were something like ~500.
I'm not saying bitcoin must adhere to the template, but I really think that if it does the all time chart is the most applicable.
Isn't there something weird about that assertion?
If you want to speculate then it is easy, "buy and hold". If you panic sold then don't cry because you already made your money. The bigger market cap the more people can use Bitcoin for shopping. Somebody must take risk invests his money and give Bitcoin a VALUE.
If you still do not understand then learn fundamentals WHAT IS BITCOIN. :-)
People who don't think this picture applies. That is because you haven't felt the fear/despair yet.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
Absolute minimum floor right now is $50. Even self-confessed bears will be buying at $50 or above. Remember that BTC is a currency, not a stock.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
I would say the absolute floor is more like 12 USD.
$5 was the end of the bear trap.
In the template is something like a 1:3 relation between first selloff and new paradigm. That would leave us with a peak of roughly USD 100. It doesn't have to stick to those figures, what is important is that the general relationships apply and they certainly do when looking on the all time chart. After all the slope of the initial runup was kind of steep. So it would still hold even if the top were something like ~500.
I'm not saying bitcoin must adhere to the template, but I really think that if it does the all time chart is the most applicable.
You're proposing an eighteen month bear trap in the bubble pattern of an asset that's only existed for four years. You're proposing a bear trap that constitutes 60% of the asset's all-time trade history.In the template is something like a 1:3 relation between first selloff and new paradigm. That would leave us with a peak of roughly USD 100. It doesn't have to stick to those figures, what is important is that the general relationships apply and they certainly do when looking on the all time chart. After all the slope of the initial runup was kind of steep. So it would still hold even if the top were something like ~500.
I'm not saying bitcoin must adhere to the template, but I really think that if it does the all time chart is the most applicable.
Isn't there something weird about that assertion?
I think it's a lot less weird than most of the other things written on here.
Why not? Human psychology and the spread of information doesn't care much about how old the thing at hand is. If Bitcoin had existed in the shadows for longer, that wouldn't change much about the current situation. Economic bubbles have typical life-spans of a few years, so in terms of the time-span it's not a long shot.
Everyone holding mid-term made profits so far. If people make a rule out of that, we're bound to get bubbles with a life-span of years, not just months. These people will tend to hold independent of fundamentals or market valuation, stating "doesn't matter if it went wrong, in a year or two I'll have a profit anyway". It does become a problem eventually, though nobody knows when as long as the user base is growing.
It's quite simple: statements that use price trends to predict price indicate bubble-type activity, no matter the time-scale. If this is a dominating factor, it becomes a problem. It certainly is a problem right now.
$5 was the end of the bear trap.
In the template is something like a 1:3 relation between first selloff and new paradigm. That would leave us with a peak of roughly USD 100. It doesn't have to stick to those figures, what is important is that the general relationships apply and they certainly do when looking on the all time chart. After all the slope of the initial runup was kind of steep. So it would still hold even if the top were something like ~500.
I'm not saying bitcoin must adhere to the template, but I really think that if it does the all time chart is the most applicable.
You're proposing an eighteen month bear trap in the bubble pattern of an asset that's only existed for four years. You're proposing a bear trap that constitutes 60% of the asset's all-time trade history.In the template is something like a 1:3 relation between first selloff and new paradigm. That would leave us with a peak of roughly USD 100. It doesn't have to stick to those figures, what is important is that the general relationships apply and they certainly do when looking on the all time chart. After all the slope of the initial runup was kind of steep. So it would still hold even if the top were something like ~500.
I'm not saying bitcoin must adhere to the template, but I really think that if it does the all time chart is the most applicable.
Isn't there something weird about that assertion?
I agree.
31 was the first sellof
2 was the bear trap
something between 78 and infinity will be new paradigm
and finally
despair will go below 1.
That's an unusually long view of the data. I'm skeptical of it, for two reasons:31 was the first sellof
2 was the bear trap
something between 78 and infinity will be new paradigm
and finally
despair will go below 1.
- We spent months at $5. A months-long stable price is hardly expected behavior for the middle of a bubble.
- If $33->$2 was a mere bear trap, the main event is going to be, what, three orders of magnitude? Sub-$1 to super-$1000? Such multipliers would be a first in recorded history - not even tulip bulbs saw that sort of inflation.
$5 was the end of the bear trap.
In the template is something like a 1:3 relation between first selloff and new paradigm. That would leave us with a peak of roughly USD 100. It doesn't have to stick to those figures, what is important is that the general relationships apply and they certainly do when looking on the all time chart. After all the slope of the initial runup was kind of steep. So it would still hold even if the top were something like ~500.
I'm not saying bitcoin must adhere to the template, but I really think that if it does the all time chart is the most applicable.
Wait! Wait! This time it's different... right?
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Haha -- It's not different at all. We all see the hourly/daily crazy fluctuations in price.
Doesn't mean this is the top of a bubble though...
Perhaps you didn't get my sarcasm...
No way, really? I just add 'haha' to the beginning of everything I write
Wait! Wait! This time it's different... right?
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Yes, because it's a new paradigm!
Wait! Wait! This time it's different... right?
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Haha -- It's not different at all. We all see the hourly/daily crazy fluctuations in price.
Doesn't mean this is the top of a bubble though...
Perhaps you didn't get my sarcasm...
Wait! Wait! This time it's different... right?
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Haha -- It's not different at all. We all see the hourly/daily crazy fluctuations in price.
Doesn't mean this is the top of a bubble though...
Wait! Wait! This time it's different... right?
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Bitcoin is immune from human nature
Absolute minimum floor right now is $50. Even self-confessed bears will be buying at $50 or above. Remember that BTC is a currency, not a stock.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
I think most would be happy to just hold on to $50 too. Those who don't -- no big loss.
As spiff points out, there can be more than one bubble, and the crash can just be a return to more moderate growth (rather than an Enron-type crash to zero). Also, it's not clear what "public investing" means for Bitcoin. We obviously have a lot of public investing now, but in terms of the chart, if public investing comes after institutional investing, this might mean people investing in a Bitcoin ETF (or something like that) which can be traded on standard exchanges, and with Apple-esque public awareness and confidence. My retail investor friends are too scared and suspicious to invest in Bitcoin, and I think it will take something like availability on a main-stream exchange before they will give it a go. So, maybe we are just starting to exit the stealth phase. Yeah, I know, this is an overly optimistic thought - more likely the model just doesn't fit Bitcoin very well. But it's fun to speculate. 
I agree.
31 was the first sellof
2 was the bear trap
something between 78 and infinity will be new paradigm
31 was the first sellof
2 was the bear trap
something between 78 and infinity will be new paradigm
Personally, I see $2 as the despair of bubble nr. 1, but its not that big a difference I guess.
and finally
despair will go below 1.
despair will go below 1.
Umm, no. You are overlooking the fact that bitcoin has a very nice 'mean' trendline going on, so in absence of fundamentally really bad news, I doubt we'll ever see $1 again (and I have my doubts if we'll ever see single digits again, my money is on no)
In the long run, we are just starting to see institutional investors starting to dip their toes in (though in this case, maybe the public might like bitcoin faster than institutions? dunno).
I agree.
31 was the first sellof
2 was the bear trap
something between 78 and infinity will be new paradigm
and finally
despair will go below 1.
That's an unusually long view of the data. I'm skeptical of it, for two reasons:31 was the first sellof
2 was the bear trap
something between 78 and infinity will be new paradigm
and finally
despair will go below 1.
- We spent months at $5. A months-long stable price is hardly expected behavior for the middle of a bubble.
- If $33->$2 was a mere bear trap, the main event is going to be, what, three orders of magnitude? Sub-$1 to super-$1000? Such multipliers would be a first in recorded history - not even tulip bulbs saw that sort of inflation.
Unlike tulips, the internet stocks were a bubble but somehow the internet has completely transformed everyone's lives and made a lot of people a lot of money.
Add this bubble chart to a decade+ long term "S" curve (we are still in the very beginning so it is not distinguishable from exponential) and you'll have what I think bitcoin will do.
Also a valid interpretation. Personally, I'm still pretty confident that the blockchain technology is the future of asset transfer, though I'm not 100% convinced that Bitcoin will be the implementation that wins. Add this bubble chart to a decade+ long term "S" curve (we are still in the very beginning so it is not distinguishable from exponential) and you'll have what I think bitcoin will do.
Unlike tulips, the internet stocks were a bubble but somehow the internet has completely transformed everyone's lives and made a lot of people a lot of money.
Add this bubble chart to a decade+ long term "S" curve (we are still in the very beginning so it is not distinguishable from exponential) and you'll have what I think bitcoin will do.
Add this bubble chart to a decade+ long term "S" curve (we are still in the very beginning so it is not distinguishable from exponential) and you'll have what I think bitcoin will do.
ohlawdythespeculationiskillinme.
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