Topic: Bubble incoming! $3800 - $4000 expected - page 4. (Read 17534 times)
They may have beenwrong but none of them were bearish. They all showed the price eventually going into a double exponential rally within one year at the latest.
lets just put this here again
I notice one thing in common with all of these charts: they end up with the price on the moon....The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012. Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.
The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.
The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.
My new view of the market:
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
If that natural bubble happens, looking in hindsight, doesn't it all sound so perfect, like it was meant to be, almost biblical, isn't it?? :-)
Think about it, the Silk Road issue created an auction that MIGHT actually just help push the price a bit and get the attention that it had previously lost with the China ban crap storyline. It's like Bitcoin is finally getting vindicated.
As a technologist and small investor, I've been analyzing Bitcoin for over a year every single day like no other technology ever caught my attention. I went thru the entire Internet and networking cycles since the first days and I don't remember being as cautiously excited as I am now for bitcoin.
My analysis indicates that the #1 threat for bitcoin are the *offline* blockchains, think of private/corporate blockchains that some companies or prospects of companies seem to want to employ for privacy or proprietary purposes. This would cause a fragmentation of the main bitcoin network.
Risk #2 is potentially long technology cycles where the cost to run nodes (not even mining) might offset the benefit of running nodes and cause a decline in their number. In addition, a lower monetary incentive to mine by small users would diminish the number of nodes and overall power of the network. This would cause risk #3: potential centralization/ 51% attacks.
There are still many factors playing out so it's difficult to assess the true systemic risk that couldn't be reduced anymore.
Think about it, the Silk Road issue created an auction that MIGHT actually just help push the price a bit and get the attention that it had previously lost with the China ban crap storyline. It's like Bitcoin is finally getting vindicated.
As a technologist and small investor, I've been analyzing Bitcoin for over a year every single day like no other technology ever caught my attention. I went thru the entire Internet and networking cycles since the first days and I don't remember being as cautiously excited as I am now for bitcoin.
My analysis indicates that the #1 threat for bitcoin are the *offline* blockchains, think of private/corporate blockchains that some companies or prospects of companies seem to want to employ for privacy or proprietary purposes. This would cause a fragmentation of the main bitcoin network.
Risk #2 is potentially long technology cycles where the cost to run nodes (not even mining) might offset the benefit of running nodes and cause a decline in their number. In addition, a lower monetary incentive to mine by small users would diminish the number of nodes and overall power of the network. This would cause risk #3: potential centralization/ 51% attacks.
There are still many factors playing out so it's difficult to assess the true systemic risk that couldn't be reduced anymore.
lets just put this here again
[/quote]The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012. Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.
The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.
The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.
My new view of the market:
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.
I notice one thing in common with all of these charts: they end up with the price on the moon....
I wish TERA would make another illustrated prediction so we can add it to our collections of Goofy Forecasts 
Didn't Tera turn bull a few weeks ago though?
Aside from the usual trolls pretty much everyone is bullish right now.
Long term I have always been bullish and remain bullish.
I wish TERA would make another illustrated prediction so we can add it to our collections of Goofy Forecasts
Didn't Tera turn bull a few weeks ago though?
Aside from the usual trolls pretty much everyone is bullish right now.
GUYS
First rule of bitcoin bubble club!
First rule of bitcoin bubble club!
Tell everyone about the Bitcoin Bubble Club?
GUYS
First rule of bitcoin bubble club!
First rule of bitcoin bubble club!
If the auction goes for a premium the price will be published. This will put a floor under the price similar to when India bought gold for around 1100USD per ounce a few years ago.
No one knows if a bubble is coming this year.
Quote
it will be late
Lol. Two conflicting statements, both intended to piss off holders. Troll.
With that said, I still have some hope that there may be a bubble, but it will be late.
Do you have trouble w/ reading comprehension or are you just stupid?
"Scare the bubble away" is LOL funny, and I don't actually laugh out loud often enough. 
The next BTC bubble will be bigger than this one!
The next BTC bubble will be bigger than this one!
No one knows if a bubble is coming this year.
Quote
it will be late
Lol. Two conflicting statements, both intended to piss off holders. Troll.
With that said, I still have some hope that there may be a bubble, but it will be late.
Do you have trouble w/ reading comprehension or are you just stupid?
No one knows if a bubble is coming this year.
Quote
it will be late
Lol. Two conflicting statements, both intended to piss off holders. Troll.
Pretty sure I have more btc than you little padawan
nobody believes you, non believerDeath to the infidel !!!!
I order a JihAD on your arse
Pretty sure I have more btc than you little padawan
nobody believes you, non believer How do you scare a bubble away? Meme time? lol
You sound pretty butthurt...
I am superstitious and I believe your collective hype and bigotry ruined the bubble for everyone. Bitcoin is watching you and it does not like being predictable. When has bitcoin ever been predictable? All the sudden everyone thinks they have figured it out w/ the bubble cycle... like there is free money just waiting for everyone/ lol
Dafar? More like JAFAR!!
GTFO non-believer
GTFO non-believer
How am I a non-believer? I'm just not delusional
Pretty sure I have more btc than you little padawan
Dafar? More like JAFAR!!
GTFO non-believer
GTFO non-believer
Are you guys delusional as fuck?
No one knows if a bubble is coming this year. There is already a significant divergence from the pattern. And that is really no surprise because everyone and their mom's have been jinxing the hell out of this 234 day bubble cycle instead of just letting it happen naturally... making it seem like it's 100% guaranteed and ultimately scaring the bubble away. The only pattern that exisits is that bitcoin skyrockets when no one is looking, the more enthusiastic you gigolos are the more likely it is that nothing happens, so stfu.
With that said, I still have some hope that there may be a bubble, but it will be late. There is a chance that the upcoming Gov auction of the 30K silk road BTC may be the trigger that we have been waiting for. I don't think there will be many of your average-rich investors at this auction, it will more likely be your mega-rich investors to institution/organizations bidding for these coins, probably for all 30K, because this may be the perfect opportunity for them to get into bitcoin. No one will be able to buy 30,000 btc at current market price off an exchange. They will end up driving the price up to a new level before they get all of their coins. So someone winning the bid at lower than market price is out of the question imo. Even those betting at current market price should be out-bid by those willing to pay a premium because they understand the effect of buying 30K coins at bulk. This is a private auction so no one will know what the other bids are, so I really don't see a low ball bid winning the auction.
And if/when this happens it will affect the market in a good way. For one bitcoin will receive positive attention... not only does the Gov selling bitcoin make this currency more legitimate, people will see the Gov and investor X or organization Y valuing bitcoin well above market price.
This is the only event in the near future that MAY cause somewhat of a bullish rally... fuck your lines and charts as if bitcoin is supposed to match up perfectly with some pre-determined delusional pattern
No one knows if a bubble is coming this year. There is already a significant divergence from the pattern. And that is really no surprise because everyone and their mom's have been jinxing the hell out of this 234 day bubble cycle instead of just letting it happen naturally... making it seem like it's 100% guaranteed and ultimately scaring the bubble away. The only pattern that exisits is that bitcoin skyrockets when no one is looking, the more enthusiastic you gigolos are the more likely it is that nothing happens, so stfu.
With that said, I still have some hope that there may be a bubble, but it will be late. There is a chance that the upcoming Gov auction of the 30K silk road BTC may be the trigger that we have been waiting for. I don't think there will be many of your average-rich investors at this auction, it will more likely be your mega-rich investors to institution/organizations bidding for these coins, probably for all 30K, because this may be the perfect opportunity for them to get into bitcoin. No one will be able to buy 30,000 btc at current market price off an exchange. They will end up driving the price up to a new level before they get all of their coins. So someone winning the bid at lower than market price is out of the question imo. Even those betting at current market price should be out-bid by those willing to pay a premium because they understand the effect of buying 30K coins at bulk. This is a private auction so no one will know what the other bids are, so I really don't see a low ball bid winning the auction.
And if/when this happens it will affect the market in a good way. For one bitcoin will receive positive attention... not only does the Gov selling bitcoin make this currency more legitimate, people will see the Gov and investor X or organization Y valuing bitcoin well above market price.
This is the only event in the near future that MAY cause somewhat of a bullish rally... fuck your lines and charts as if bitcoin is supposed to match up perfectly with some pre-determined delusional pattern
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