Capitulation based on indicators grod is describing will never happen. There are many reasons for this. Just like Cluster2k said, some of us don't really pay for electricity so it's still profitable even with the current price.
Second and more importantly, there is always a significant delay. Miners are not only expecting changes in prices but changes in difficulty! They don't need to expect a rise in price, I'm pretty sure most people don't at the moment, but what they can expect is a significant drop in difficulty during the next two adjustments.
That's why the change will always be gradual. Nothing drastic is going to happen to the hash rate because of price changes, it's gradual. What can affect the hash rate much more is pools getting dossed etc.
Topic: Bubble not yet popped - page 2. (Read 3305 times)
Question is: Where is the bottom?
That's what we all want to know. Pre-gawker volumes mean price under $1, but I think that is too low. My bet goes to $1.5/$2.
Of course, given that I heat with straight up electric coils, I'll be using miners come winter weather. It wouldn't make sense not to, no matter what the price is.
I don't think mining profits are important here. We didn't have a buying force strong enough to sustain the price at higher levels so what we need to find out is how many people are actually buying bitcoins because they need it and not because of the "curiosity bubble". These people will keep the price from crashing for months to come (until the next press hit shows up).
Question is: Where is the bottom?
That's what we all want to know. Pre-gawker volumes mean price under $1, but I think that is too low. My bet goes to $1.5/$2.
Of course, given that I heat with straight up electric coils, I'll be using miners come winter weather. It wouldn't make sense not to, no matter what the price is.
I've just shut down my (deepbit) miner for another day, as 'free' power from my solar PV array has finished for today. I wouldn't discount the possibility that a large proportion of miners on deepbit have 'free' power (solar PV, or stealing it from someone else), are on fixed power contracts (which will go up long after they finish mining due to the lag effect), or have some of the cheapest power on Earth and don't mind having hundreds of dollars in hardware producing cents per day.
While that might be true, it isnt driving hash rate unless ALL of them have free electricity or dont care. The miners that do have free electricity (or dont care about the price and act irrationally) will drive out the miners that dont have it and hash rate will still plummet.
What you are seeing is more likely a delayed response. Price plummets, miners reevaluate but dont instantly pull the plug or sell their gear. It takes time to convince them the price is going to stay that low, it takes time for electricity bills to arrive, it takes time to find buyers for their equipment. Hash rate will lag bitcoin price, but in the long run, will always correlate as long as there is a single rational miner left that actually pays for his electricity.
Question is: Where is the bottom?
That's what we all want to know. Pre-gawker volumes mean price under $1, but I think that is too low. My bet goes to $1.5/$2.
Question is: Where is the bottom?
No, it's a good proxy for overall bitcoin ecosystem sentiment. They're bullish and expecting BTC to go up, not down. Anyone expecting lower BTC prices (like me) has already shut down.
Peak hashing power was 5.4 gigahash on deepbit. Currently at 3.1. Looking like about 60% of us are still bullish.
Peak hashing power was 5.4 gigahash on deepbit. Currently at 3.1. Looking like about 60% of us are still bullish.
I've just shut down my (deepbit) miner for another day, as 'free' power from my solar PV array has finished for today. I wouldn't discount the possibility that a large proportion of miners on deepbit have 'free' power (solar PV, or stealing it from someone else), are on fixed power contracts (which will go up long after they finish mining due to the lag effect), or have some of the cheapest power on Earth and don't mind having hundreds of dollars in hardware producing cents per day.
Then there are the optimists, who see the current crash as temporary.
No, it's a good proxy for overall bitcoin ecosystem sentiment. They're bullish and expecting BTC to go up, not down. Anyone expecting lower BTC prices (like me) has already shut down.
Peak hashing power was 5.4 gigahash on deepbit. Currently at 3.1. Looking like about 60% of us are still bullish.
Peak hashing power was 5.4 gigahash on deepbit. Currently at 3.1. Looking like about 60% of us are still bullish.
My indicator is hashing power on deepbit. While 60%+ of the bitcoin community are still bullish on bitcoin it's not a bottom.
That's backwards. Those are the people putting Bitcoins into the system. Not the ones who are putting in dollars.
My indicator is hashing power on deepbit. While 60%+ of the bitcoin community are still bullish on bitcoin it's not a bottom.
Sorry to the optimists, but you're still going to have to wait for the bottom. Bitcoin is going to at least halve before any rebound. Once volume gets back to pre-Gawker levels, I'm going to call a bottom.
Jump to: