Topic: Bubble or Not? - page 4. (Read 3467 times)

If we wanted the corrections to happe, then I guess every minute corrected it's value, because as price fluctuates dumping of holding was happening. That's been the outcome of many people whose selling early compared to those who wait. That idea about bubble was still a rumors behind digital currency, because its not proven due to bitcoin's popularity now. There's no wonder price can reach that highers price value ever, and will attract more investors on the market places.

If we consider the last Rally/Bear market it could realistically go to 1/4 the ATH, so a bit under $2k per coin again.
It is really tough to predict, perhaps this rally will sustain to a much higher ATH with all the new interest.  I sold all I want to at this price level and am back in HODL mode, so I'm ready to wait several years if needed for another big rally.

You can't compare Bitcoin itself to the dot com bubble at all, they're completely different things.

Now ICOs on the other hand, are very much like penny stocks and the dot com bubble and a lot of people will burn themselves really hard in the coming months and years due to greed and laziness.

What most people don't seem to get however, is the fact that even with penny stocks and the dot com bubble there were quite a few winners. All you have to do is learn from the past and identify what has value and what does not. It's really not that hard.

The growth of the cryptocurrency system made me remember the bubble of dot com in the past. In my opinion, the bubble of Bitcoin just beginning, but we need to be careful because it does not mean the bubble growth of Bitcoin will not burst soon.

There are some economic and political leaders that are starting to FUD Bitcoin lately though. Calling it all sorts of ridiculous names. Let's hope that the new investors study Bitcoin and understand that all the FUD is nonsense, instead of starting to panic which could cause the price to avalanche real quickly.

As your said, the price of Bitcoin needs to dumps lower than the base price it has started to increases from last year? In my opinion, only the price of Bitcoin dump 50% the current price is enough to know the bubble of Bitcoin was broken or not!

We can not really tell exactly when. The bubble happens for a reason. But as we all witnessing now, Bitcoin price is really spiking up and thus the demand is continuing to increase dramatically. With this, the possible bubble may occur if the price ceiling of Bitcoin, if ever there is, will hit. Price ceiling means maximum price that it can reach. Which means that the price will no longer move up and tend to go down which may lead to panic selling and a dramatic drop of value. I'm not an expert, this is what happened in other investment instruments that may happen also in the cryptocurrency market.

The continuous growth of bitcoin's price increases the number of investors. It is now known to social media and was legally accepted by many countries. Its negative issues never blown the trust of people who holds it. In fact, there are big companies which give their fully support on cryptocurrency. I can say that it is now in bubble inspite of many hindrances.

Yeah, I've seen the buzzword mania all over the MonaCo chats in the recent few days. Everybody blindly gulping up the statement that Kris made, even though it's complete horseshit. I'm really not sure if people are not seeing what is happening, or just simply don't care and try to push the prices instead for short-term gains - at the potential demise of the crypto scene.

It can definitely still go both ways.

So far all the government and central banking FUD (leaders attacking crypto) has been left largely ignored. If things stay this way, which is very well possible as decentralized exchanges are about to come creeping up, Bitcoin or at least the crypto market as a whole will keep climbing into the trillions.

If people suddenly start bending over to the FUD crypto might have a problem and Bitcoin could very quickly evaporate all savings of many people.
From this perspective it seems highly immoral for governments to step in and FUD in a way that would literally destroy the lives of people who were reckless enough to go all in, but if we look back at the past it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Very exciting times ahead! Will we finally see governments cooperating with the citizens they are supposed to serve? Or will they go to a FUD war?

Quite true, especially when people get emotionally involved and just start using buzzwords that they've heard before.  I can't count the number of times I've seen the term "ponzi scheme" misused (often in reference to bitcoin).


Indeed.  The hard part is figuring out which it is before the rest of the market does.   And really, right now I think it can still go either way.  It's like a financial instrument that's just experienced a sharp rise in price.  One of two things needs to happen for the price to go higher: either consolidation or a pullback.  Or, another way to put that is that either value needs to catch up to price over time (consolidation), or price needs to catch up to value (pullback).  Regarding bitcoin's long-term outlook, either value needs to catch up to price (adoption increases), or price needs to catch up to value (price pullback/crash).

i think it will be bubble for next, remainin for 4 years is the last big bubble hahaha
bitcoin price is make a big price movement, its to dangerously
for now its like a time bomb, with no one know it will explode.

maybe for some people, the up and down of the price is a bubble but for the other people is not a bubble so I think its depend how we look the price. if the price is up then we can sell bitcoin to reach profit and if the price is down, then we can buy more bitcoin so we can add more amount in our wallet. but in out there, if the price is down, then many people will be panic and they are selling their bitcoin because they don't want to get lose but after the price is up again, they are regret because they selling too early.

I think that sometimes people misunderstand or misuse words, that is only  a small correction nothing more, to me bubble bursting is if bitcoin crashed to 600 dollars or something as dramatic as that and since that is not going to happen then the only thing we can say is that a correction may come but that is not a sure thing especially since there are many reasons to think that bitcoin is going to keep growing in the next weeks and months.

Agreed.  I think we are on the same page now.  Thanks for a great discussion.  It has helped me think through the way bitcoin, currencies, and economic systems work more than I have in the past.


I have a few thoughts here.

First, technically speaking, there is indeed no proper way to determine a bitcoin's value, so there's no way to say definitively that we're in a bubble.

Second, one could argue that since bitcoin doesn't really have the backing of an economic system yet, as we discussed, it's one of the biggest bubbles in history today.  However, that could completely change in the future if/as adoption continues to grow.

Third, one could look at bitcoin's history to make "informal bubble calls," meaning that price has gone too far too fast and is likely to undergo a very significant correction (e.g., 50%+).

I tend to look at bitcoin bubble discussions using all three views, but I think that #2 and #3, if used, need to be discussed in the context of #1, meaning that we first should acknowledge that it's not possible right now, by definition, to say whether bitcoin price is a bubble.  So I think we agree there.


Yep, I think this all makes very good sense, and it's a well-balanced view.

Seems like we're on the same page then. It's just difficult to really work things out sometimes, since language is extremely ambiguous in nature, so the dialogue has to bounce back and forth a few times to clear everything up when it comes to more complex topics.

Now with that said, I'm not sure we can talk about a bubble. Since there's no efficient price finding mechanism in place for Bitcoin yet.

Until enough people hold Bitcoins for the exchange rate to stay relatively calm during market movements we won't be able to make any accurate estimates about "the value" of Bitcoin.

It will also heavily depend on whether Bitcoin is used as an asset only, or as a currency for daily purchases, or even as the "fundamental" currency against which every other cryptographic asset is traded against. If it's traded against traditional assets (or if traditional assets make their way on the blockchain) the total value could easily crack the trillions.
But that involves so many factors that it's hard, if not impossible, to tell when or if that will ever happen.
For reference, the largest stock exchanges are around one trillion in size each. So if Bitcoin was the gateway into all cryptographic assets a value of one trillion wouldn't really be high in the coming decade.
If it was used for daily exchanges that would be several tens of trillions. If it was both, then we're starting to approach one hundred trillion. But it could also find itself replaced at some point.


In either case, since we lack a price finding mechanism it's not really possible to talk about a bubble. There are plenty of ways to justify prices 10 to 1000 times higher, but nobody really know if Bitcoin will take any of these ways yet.

500% is something impossible for Bitcoin to reach in near future. It means we are hoping Bitcoin to reach $30K which isn't seems happening anyhow. On the other hand how can you say 20% isn't a big decline. Suppose Bitcoin crash 20% tomorrow, it will decline from $5800 to $4640 which I consider to be a very big decline.
No doubt we have huge folk of people using or investing in Bitcoin but still many turn weak hands in the time of negative atmosphere. Thus, there is some degree of bubble formed around Bitcoin.

Let's get down to basics.  What does it mean for something to have intrinsic value (i.e., to be worth something)?  This isn't exactly a technical definition, but it seems to me that an object has intrinsic value if it's useful for something in a fundamental way, apart from other things.  For example, corn has intrinsic value because it can be used for food.  Cotton has intrinsic value because it can be used to make clothing.  Wood has intrinsic value because it can be used as fuel or to construct buildings.  By that definition, gold does have some intrinsic value, as it's useful for computer chips, some chemical processes, and of course for making things that are beautiful to behold (jewelry, etc.).  Its price is inflated because many people have agreed to make it a store of value, but it's still useful for things apart from being a type of currency.

Moving on to pure currencies...a dollar bill, by itself, is worthless (except maybe as a tiny bit of fuel, I suppose).  The same is true of a bitcoin.  However, as I said, the dollar has at least been defined (and collectively agreed upon) to represent part of the US economy.  Using a grossly oversimplified example, let's say the entire US economy consisted of the production of 5 ears of corn, and let's say that only 1 dollar has been created to represent the US economy.  Assuming you could do nothing else with that dollar, and putting aside all other considerations (which are many), it would make sense that each ear of corn would be worth 20 cents.  If only 2 ears of corn had been produced, each would be worth 50 cents.  Of course the global economy is vastly more complex, but on a basic level, all of the dollars out there can be mapped to the value of the US economy to give some general sense of what each dollar should be worth.

But when you look at bitcoin, there's nothing specific that it can be mapped to.  If bitcoin became the official currency of turnip producers, then you could get some idea of the value of a bitcoin based on how well the turnip crops did this year.  But without some sort of "anchor" like this, there's no way to figure out the value of a bitcoin, which is why it has such ridiculous volatility.