Topic: Bucket list for a Bitcoin low (Read 396 times)

Despite price closing above $21.5K this week, the level where hash rate signalled a recovery on the Weekly time-frame, this indicator has still yet to signal a buy:



While not entirely sure why this hasn't triggered, it should be noted that this also wouldn't be the first time a buy hasn't triggered for a macro low. This also occurred on the Monthly time-frame with the hash rate recovery in January 2019, whereby a buy also didn't trigger. Potentially it's as "too much time has passed", other than that I honestly have no idea without in-depth review of the code for this indicator.

Therefore rather than retrospectively cherry pick the Daily buy signal at $20.8K, in order to also lower the average buy price from $22.3K, I think it's more realistic to simply void this signal from the bucket list, given the possibility that it may never trigger a buy on this time-frame near the lows. I otherwise remain as confident as before that the bottom is in now that price action is catching up with the theory.

As an update to this list, the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons indicator is currently signalling a buy this week after hash rate spiked to the highest level since July 30th, though this signal is not yet confirmed on other time-frames. While tempting to include the $20,835 buy signal on the Daily chart at recent lows, will wait for confirmation on the Weekly chart (whether that be at a higher or lower price) before feeling satisfied that the criteria for a Bitcoin low has been reached. While others are feeling bearish now prices have corrected to $21K, I'm instead feeling more bullish about the low being in.

With price falling below the current average bottom signal so far of $22.3K, just to reiterate, this doesn't change anything about the bottom likely being in already. Instead, the previous signals could provide further insight into where price is likely to find support. Already I've emphasised the volume point of control around $21K levels, more specifically this is at $20.8K looking at the longer term picture, which is the same price as the Pi Cycle bottom indicator. Likewise moving back above previous indicator signals between $22.4K and $23.3K, would likely signal a continuation of upside price movements.

As a reminder also, the bottom being in doesn't indicate an immediate trend reversal, nor that re-testing near the lows won't occur. In fact in 2019 this is exactly what happened when price rebounded from $3.2K to $4K, before retracing to $3.6K. Likewise in 2015 this led to a years worth of consolidation before price re-tested near the lows before eventually moved higher. Excluding 2020 bottom, that wasn't considered a cycle low nor was it the bear market low, then after a bear market low has occurred it's completely usual for price to re-test near these lows, so in this respect I wouldn't expect anything less right now.

Ironically, the final signal of Hash Ribbons indicator is getting increasingly close to signalling a recovery and therefore likely a buy signal to follow if price can hold current levels, potentially signalling a low around average indicator prices. So rather than considering that these indicators will be inaccurate this time around, I'm more inclined to think that they are just as accurate as before, until proven otherwise.

Well yes, these indicators generally speaking are mathematical equations, attempting to calculate future results. This is how most indicators work. It's also not designed to work in every cycle either. For me now that I'm 80% confident the low is in, that won't change even with the final indicator signalling a low, as there will always be a up to a 20% probability that all 5 of these indicators are wrong this time around.


Nothing is 100% reliable or accurate. But I'd argue these indicators are in fact designed for the long-term, hence they only previously provided buy signals after a low is formed, even if at considerably a higher price. The main reason these indicators won't be right this time around is if the macro bull market of Bitcoin (10 year long uptrend) comes to an end, as all these indicators are based on a continuation of a long-term bull market.

Price finally closed last week back above the 200 WMA, confirming it as support. Whether it holds or not in the short-term is another story, but yet another confirmation of a low being formed regardless.



Now just waiting for the final piece of the puzzle for a price recovery, which so far remains elusive as hash rate continues to decline:

With previous data for a Bitcoin low being confirmed, I thought I'd try give an estimate or when and what price a low would be confirmed, now it looks 60% confirmed, even if entirely hypothetical.

• Based on the average price from the low for a confirmation, this could be around +35.6%, which would result in $23.8K being the average price. This also currently looks quite likely with a current average of $21.9K, the 200 WMA confirmation somewhere >$22.8K, followed by hash rate confirmation coming at a much higher price. Somewhere between 30-35% from the low ($22.8K to $23.8K) looks plausible for now.
• Based on average time for a confirmation, this could take as long as 5.6 months, which would result in end of November, but I'll also explore a different theory here.

Despite the time-frame of almost 6 months appearing very long, now that 3 indicators have already signalled a low, it's worth noting this is exactly what happened in the previous bear markets. The first 3 indicators signalled a low within a few weeks, while the last two took a few months longer (despite the last two indicators being different). In the case of 2015 it took more than 6 months. So there is merit to this theory.

However another way to look at this could be the idea that confirmation arrives sooner, based on previously taking 7.5 months to confirm, followed by 3.75 months (-50%). This could imply that this low could be confirmed again 50% sooner, even though there are only two sets of data to compare against (noted). This would however mean from first confirmation to last, it could take only 8 weeks: beginning of September.

Personally I'm inclined to believe that a confirmation would arrive sooner than later, such as early September, even early August (8 weeks from the $17.5K low rather than first confirmation), given the 200 WMA has already nearly been reclaimed on the weekly time-frame and it doesn't seem like hash rate will need another 4 months to recover, more like only another month or two based on current data. The alternative to this would be price falling back into the $18K to $22K range for a few months or so, while not forming a new low, and therefore neither 200 WMA nor hash ribbons indicator would confirm a low for a while.

TL:DR: Based on averages from previous confirmations of a low, this could be around $23.8K, and otherwise take somewhere between 8 weeks (until September) and 6 months (November).

You mean like a decent +6% back to the upside to re-test the 200 WMA, or something similar?



Not saying I told you so, but think I gave enough warning about this likelihood. Too many bears are trapped in bearish mindsets right now.

They haven't even got trapped in their bearish positions yet, only physiologically so far.


Even on the weekly chart, many had turned bearish after rejection from the 200 WMA.

Many ignored how easily price could reclaim $22.5K and create a bullish wick:




Still a few days until the end of the week, but just like yesterday, I refuse to be bearish at these levels, as price continues to carve through resistance.


I say/suggest a lot of scenarios, but since $23K was broken as resistance and bear flag invalidated, then all that was realistically left was bullish potential unless $20K was lost as final support.

Indeed! Probably silly of me and I'm normally not even really moved by the market but I guess this time around feels a lot different with everything else going on around the economy, maybe just feeling the reality pinching in on everything not even Bitcoin related -- but it was pretty good for the confidence to see that performance after worse-than-expected news.

I'll breathe much easier if we see a repeat behaviour after today's news (and I'm actually hoping for a bigger than expected rate bump to test this behaviour).

Your welcome  


This is indeed a legitimate concern. Fortunately at present (~$20.9K) there is room for further downside, probably to around $20K before this would take place. A re-test of these oversold conditions, and confirming it as support, would be bullish. Closing below would naturally be bearish (bear market continuation). I can also see an argument for needing to clear an RSI of around 37.5 (green line) for confirmation:



The reality is, this metric (RSI), as well as all others, are only factoring in the bottoms of 2015 and 2019, they are therefore only two sets of data per indicator confirming a bottom (excluding NUPL and Hash Ribbons that have done so in previous bear markets as well). While usually I'd consider two data points being accurate as a coincidence until a pattern is formed (3 data points), it would none the less be quite a coincidence that all 5 of these metrics have called bottoms near the bottoms twice before as it were. About 20% chance of that imo, hence using five indicators here rather than just relying on one. I guess it's also worth bearing in mind, this strategy of trying to confirm a bottom doesn't mean price goes up immediately, only that the low of $17.5K won't be broken. So short-term downside becomes irrelevant.


This would certainly be the hope! I would also be a lot less convinced about 3 of these indicators confirming $17.5K as the low if Bitcoin hadn't rallied +8% off bearish news. Fundamentally, this is one of the required factors for a low being formed or a trend reversal occurring: bearish/bullish news no longer affecting the immediate trend. It highlights weakens in the current trend.

^ I wanted to check in to see if you'd confirm what I thought happened (am travelling and am on a low-fi device) and nice to see we finally carried over.

Only small thing now is the scenario I questioned as well -- if we went right back into oversold territory, and it's a really tricky 3 days now of economic indicators coming out from US. They have had visible impact at least in short term on BTC, but there is some hope after last week's immediate strength even after bad news (CPI) that this week might not even register a dent. Let's see!

The Weekly RSI closed @ 33.2, officially out of oversold conditions, after reaching a low of 25.7 (the lowest recorded in Bitcoin history). Price: $22.6K

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Thanks I guess 

I know this is not exactly the right place, but I like OP and his threads and I do think this is worth mentioning. This is going to be a crazy week, every day releasing figures starting with consumer confidence on inflation, the Fed interest decision Wednesday and then the very next day Q2 GDP.

Interest is the most important and it's pretty gnarly to think it was set at 0.5 2 months ago, but 0.75 was priced in over that period and apparently now even 1.00 is getting priced in. That's great news really because any rate lower than that and Bitcoin will enjoy a strong, strong move.

Be crazy if it exceeded 1 though...

I'm only gonna HODL my Bitcoins at such a low prices.
Bitcoin was at almost 70k and has big potentials to see much higher prices when it's getting more famous.
Many people have already reconized Bitcoin as a store of value and are using it as a store of value.
Many more will follow.
HODLers will grow in numbers A LOT.

Time is in favor of Bitcoin's price increase.

I can agree that we might see another bottom during this summer or just by the end of it but I have no criteria of how to spot a bear bottom but I do know that every summer after a big bull run, BTC ended up with a sudden dropping in price by the end of the summer and this time doesn't seems to be any different. Also lately , more and more people are believing that we have already achieved bottom and we won't see a lower rate but I still do believe bear market is still in force.

Technically it's simply a bottom being formed and price moving above this low that generally triggers these signals, excluding Pi Cycle that has previously nailed it more accurately as well as initially.

I do otherwise see a "cause and effect": Pi Cycle triggers, RSI leaves oversold, price confirms the 200 WMA as support (even though Pi Cycle bottom indicator wasn't available in previous bear markets). It's the same "recipe" as previous bear market bottoms, with the exception of hash ribbons looking like it'll take longer for a buy signal and NUPL triggering early as loss only reached -19% rather than -42% or -56%.


Also considering the same, if end of week RSI leaves oversold (which looks likely) it'd give me 60% confirmation of $17.6K being the low. I think the 200 WMA could then be reclaimed from this confirmation, increasing confirmation to 80%. Glad you appreciate the objective criteria, I thought it'd be useful as there is enough evidence of a bottom, but still lacking confirmation from other relevant indicators.


There are no facts (there never are) to support a dead cat bounce such as 2019 (as you probably know), but as you noticed, there is a target of $50K if the same event occurs.

Very nice! merited elsewhere.
I wonder if all criteria are independent or crossing a few tremendously increase the probability of others to trigger.
Personally, i already thought that this is a real thing, but it is VERY nice to see that the objective criteria confirms.
However, I am of the opinion (not supported by facts) that this cycle, similarly to the prior one, would have "fake" rallies a la 2019.
As such, I see 47-48K as a limit of such "premature" bitcoin rally (and 3.4K for the competitor). Could be a very fast bump, maybe to September, if macro cooperates.

Comparing this criteria to 2018/2019 low:

1. Pi Cycle bottom signalled: 10/12/18 @ $3,195
2. Weekly RSI leaving oversold: 17/12/18 @ $3,945
3. Hash Ribbons buy signal: 07/01/19 @ $3,514
4. Price confirming 200 WMA as support: 04/02/19 @ $3,648
5.. NUPL leaving capitulation levels: 02/04/19 @ $4,875

Average price: $3,835 (+21.8% from low)
Price range: $3,195 - $4,875
Time range: 10/12/18 until 02/04/19 (3.75 months)

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Comparing this criteria to 2015 low:

1. Pi Cycle bottom signalled: 12/01 @ $212
2. Weekly RSI leaving oversold: 19/01 @ 255
3. Hash Ribbons buy signal: 26/01 @ $227
4. NUPL leaving capitulation levels: 11/07 @ $292
5. Price confirming 200 WMA as support: 31/08 @ $240

Average price: $245 (+49.4% from low)
Price range: $212 - $292
Time range: 12/01/2015 until 31/08/2015 (7.5 months)

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Average price from low: +35.6%
Average time to confirm: 5.6 months

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Note: 200 WMA support price is the re-test, as opposed to initial contact (so at a higher price).
Additionally, NUPL leaving capitulation is ignored until another indicator is signalled first (such as 2014).

Here's my own personal bucket list for confirming a Bitcoin low that I'll keep updated.

Currently at 40% 60% 80% 100% complete:

1. Pi Cycle bottom signalled: 11/07 @ $20.8K ✅
2. NUPL leaving capitulation levels: 18/07 @ $22.4K ✅
3. Weekly RSI leaving oversold conditions: 24/07 @ $22.6K ✅
4. Price closing back above 200 WMA:: 31/07 @ $23.3K  ✅
5. Hash Ribbons indicator buy signal: 09/01 @ 20.8K ✅

Average price (so far):  $22K (+42% from low)
Price range (so far): $20.8K - $23.2K
Time range: 11/07/22 until 09/01/23: 6 months

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This is simply my own criteria for attempting to confirm a bear market low, but not an end to the bear market nor new bull market I should add. Currently waiting on Weekly RSI to close a week outside of oversold conditions (this week hopefully), as well as close back above the 200 WMA (next week maybe). Hash Ribbons indicator will likely take longer to confirm buy signal as hash rate continues to decline.

What's your criteria for confirming a bear market bottom for Bitcoin, if any?