Topic: Weekly RSI leaving oversold conditions (Read 1246 times)

Now that price has moved out of the trading range, it's time for an update. Firstly, a lot's changed since last time price was above $20.5K last month.

On the 4hr chart, the 50 & 200 MA have confirmed a golden cross, last seen in July, prior to the 20% increase in price towards $25K. Additionally, MAs are rising in bullish formation as price remains above it. While breaking through $21.5K previous trading range remains to be seen, price remains bullish in the short-term above $19.5K MA and volume support. Ideally bulls can form support between $20K and $20.5K, where the previous high lies and the upper end of the two month long accumulation zone, otherwise failure to do so and a return to $19K would only further confirm that the long-term bearish momentum remains.



On the Daily chart, price has managed to close consecutive candles above the flattened (neutral) 50 MA, again for the first time since July. This price level as potential support is similar to the short-term chart, as the 20 & 50 MAs are about to cross bullish. RSI price strength is otherwise at the highest level since March and remains bullish above 60. So while the trend reversal is far from confirmed on this time-frame without confirming support or moving beyond longer term accumulation levels (>$22K), to say that this time is different compared to recent dead cat bounces would be correct based on price strength and MAs.



The only potentially bearish outlook remains on the Weekly chart, as price begins to find resistance at the 20 Week MA @ $20,750 (again not seen since March), whereby price will need to close consecutive candles back above this level or risk facing rejection and finally capitulating lower. Due to the numerous weeks of consolidation, the projection for this MA is to flatten out and lose it's bearish bias in the next few weeks, providing a stronger possibility of being able to turn this into support instead of facing a sharp rejection like back in March after it had already begun trending to the downside in bearish formation.



After four months of consolidation near the lows, the Weekly RSI has finally managed to break back above 37.5, level previous identified as critical back in 2018 and 2020 in order to confirm a trend reversal. With price strength now flirting with the neutral level of 40, this would further help to confirm the long-term bearish momentum has passed, coinciding nicely with moving back above the 20 Week MA no doubt.



TL:DR

4hr bullish above it's MAs that are in bullish formation. Support is currently around $19.5K, however the momentum currently favours the bulls.
Daily is neutral with bullish potential, needs to confirm 50 Day MA as support ($19.7K) or otherwise accumulation zone around $20.2K.
Weekly is neutral with bearish potential, needs to avoid confirming 20 Week MA as resistance ($20.7K) in order to trend higher.

After closing yesterday (3rd Oct) back above the 20 Day MA price saw follow through to the 50 Day MA around $20.2K as optimism returned for the bulls after negating the immediate bearish momentum. With the 50 DMA continuing to decline in bearish formation, a correction towards volume support around $19.5K and 20 Day MA remains likely in order to turn previous resistance into support.

Price has otherwise returned back above the new volume point of control at $19.5K, signalling that price remains within the main accumulation zone as opposed to confirming it as distribution, despite resistance at current prices. So unlike previous bear market bounces to current prices in recent weeks, there is a reason to remain optimistic as price moves above key moving averages, instead of facing rejection.




In the short-term price has re-tested local resistance for the third time in order to significantly weaken it, with moving average support around $19.8K and price forming higher lows. Ideally price can consolidate within this resistance zone in order for a bullish cross-over of the 50 & 200 MAs, last seen in July and after the failed bullish re-cross last month. Otherwise an immediate continuation to the upside further into overbought territory on this time-frame would likely see a sharp rejection around $21.5K distribution zone, similar to last months rally, as opposed to a healthy and bullish consolidation in order to confirm new support.



While removing my short-term bearish bias after the close above $19.4K, price remains relatively neutral in the short-term, currently at previous resistance levels. A break above $20.5K gives an immediate target of $21.5K, with the possibility of continuing further into $23K resistance. So far, the month is otherwise showing support below $19.4K for a second consecutive month, after bears failed to break the lows.

Unlike previous "choppy" price action (sideways) in recent weeks with no clear direction, short-term speculators will likely be drawn towards the risk reward set up for a move to the upside. The target for the current rounding bottom that is close to confirming is 10% to the upside (or more with an entry <$20K), with a well established trading zone between $20K and $24K as a generic "range-bound" trade (support to resistance).

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After several weeks the Weekly RSI is otherwise close to break-out above 37.5, where price will either face resistance for the third time and remain range-bound, or otherwise push higher towards $25K.

Price has broken below the 50 MA after repeated rejection from the 200 MA. Personally, I'd say this is because these MAs are in bearish formation, as opposed to bullish. The risk now will be turning the 50 MA into new resistance, which becomes increasingly likely with price trading below all it's moving averages, unless a higher low on this short-term time-frame can be established in the near term:





The issue for me is that despite the relatively sideways market in recent weeks, price continues to respect bearish (declining) moving averages as resistance. Again today price is getting rejected by the 20 Day MA for the third consecutive day, which generally I find not very useful as an MA unless it's accurately highlighting bearish momentum which appears to be the case. The optimism left for me would be closing back back this MA (currently at $19.4K) that continues to decline, but otherwise if price is to return to $18.8K lower level of support, this support is only going to become weaker until it eventually breaks imo.



The Weekly chart is additionally highlighting selling pressure from previous support level around $20K for the second week in a row, confirming it as new resistance. So without reclaiming this level in the near future, consolidating at the lows below resistance and moving averages remains bearish to me. At least the target for closing above the 20 Day MA has declined considerably in order to neutralise the immediate bearish momentum, but otherwise without reclaiming above around $20.5K, to me price would only be neutral at best in the short-term, and at worst awaiting further bearish correction.

Im optimistic any time we can stay above the 50 MA on 4hr bars, thats roughly a week of price action and we are capped by the 200 MA as you say a larger time frame keeps us confined in any ambitions yet BTC refuses to resolve downwards so far.
  Rising lows I think we have to stay optimistic still though the range is squished flat until one day we break out violently quite unpredictably.  Alot of news and volume externally is perhaps why the chart is hard to read with no reliable trend ?



My general view is Im impressed BTC continues to do 'well' in a multi year view during a harsh environment with alot of pullback and sell offs occurring across the full range of sectors especially speculative assets.

While price remains the same since previous update, Bitcoin continues to get rejected by local resistance as well as\ the 200 MA. Focusing simply on moving averages, price is currently stuck between the 50 & 200 MA, with the longer-term MA trending downwards in bearish formation and the 50 relatively flat and therefore neutral. The only upside is that the 50 has been temporarily flipped into support.




Similarly on the Daily chart price is facing strong MA resistance, on this time-frame from the 20 Day MA. The bearish outlook is that after a couple of weeks of consolidation the bearish momentum remains strong (20 Day MA being a momentum indicator), while the bullish outlook would be a close above around $19.6K that could help to reverse this bearish momentum, now that this MA has declined considerably.



While the Month closed "only" -3% to the downside, it none the less became the lowest close since late 2020. Furthermore, it became the first ever rejection from the 50 Month MA, signalling weakness in Bitcoin's long-term uptrend. The only real positive is that so far the June lows haven't been broken, but given yesterday's close it's looking increasingly likely unless price can soon reverse to the upside.

Personally, I don't think I'm being too bearish here. More realistically bearish in the immediate term as price consolidates at the lows below local resistance. As I said, there is long-term bullish divergence at present, so I'm not ruling out bullish consolidation between $20K and $24K levels in the coming months, which from current prices would be at higher prices. However until price can move convincingly above $20.5K, and back into more of a neutral zone, then the consolidation remains bearish despite the bullish potential on long-term time-frames.

In general I still see the low as being in given the capitulation that has already occurred, and since then we've had 1 month sideways, 1 months upwards, 1 month downwards - more or less. So I see the likelihood of a month or so sideways (currently we've had about 10 days), then a month increase, another month correction maybe. Slowly grinding back to the upside but remaining range bound within the accumulation range. The opportunity to "quickly" re-test $30K seems long gone now unless there is some fundamental change that takes place, which is far from a bad thing as if price can remain within broader accumulation zone of $20K to $24K in the coming weeks/months then this certainly favours the bulls as moving averages decline and momentum can build for a much more significant break to the upside, rather than just $30K.


My general bearish sentiment is simply that since $20K was lost, we have been making lower lows, so unless this previous support level can be reclaimed, then the likelihood is continued further downside towards the lows as we've seen in the last month, even if not by that much as well as bears failing to break the lows. The pushes to the downside do appear to be less and less each time at least, but in itself bears losing momentum doesn't exactly imply the bulls are gaining any either - only neutralising the bearish momentum at best, hence price as been consolidating in recent weeks rather than recovering. As I said, I'll quite happily change my tune once $20.5K resistance is reclaimed, because this will help confirm that the current short-term consolidation is over and price is ready to move back to the upside, even if not by much.

I question the extent of your seeming bearishness here.

Sure, you may well be right that 1-3 months of consolidation in these $18k-ish to $21.5k-ish price territories may end up playing out, yet at the same time, I see no reason that king daddy might not end up doing one or two step ups and consolidate at higher points, because it is already pretty damned bearish to have BTC prices  spending so much time below the 200-week moving average (which is currently at almost $23,800), so largely we have been quite a distance below the 200-week moving average for a decently long period of time of more than 3 months already..

And yeah there have been quite a few negative happenings in bitcoinland and even lack of confidence in respect to macro-factors and their potential additional influences to continue to push negatively on prices, as well as the fact that once the rationale for getting down to these low price points has been understood, then there has been justification in which the momentum stays down and fails/refuses to go up until sufficient satisfaction has been achieved in regards to the vast majority of weak hands being shaken out.. including the fact that miners re still being pressured in such a way to make sure that the ones who have been shaken out are all of those that are going to be shaken out.

So I am still thinking that even if BTC prices do a little bit of a step up to just below the 200-week moving average or even just above the 200-week moving average, it is still a pretty negative place for BTC prices to be, even though it is more in line with historical longer term bottoms of the 200-week moving average, even though arguments can be made in regards to our living through more challenging times than usual with some more challenging macro-factors than usual, too.

In other words, I don't really have very many clues except to just want to chime into to say that I have my doubts about whether either staying down or even correcting more down (as some of the even more bearish than you predictors are wanting to say) is any kind of necessity that is any more justified than some scenarios that might still be reasonable, still feel sufficiently bearish even with one or two steps higher up in our consolidation arena... and still be enough of negative to keep everyone happy (or not happy) and feeling impending doom for the next 1-3 months or even longer before the consolidation can work itself out and perhaps resolve to the upside at some point soon thereafter, whether that would be in the next 1-3 months or if it might even take additional 3 months or more. 

None of these consolidation areas are guaranteed, because it is quite possible that we could get some kind of a false bounce up to $35k or some other unrealistically high number (like our 2019 period) that might take a decent time to get up there, and then correct back down over the following month to bring us more or less back down to somewhere around the 200-week moving average starting point.. again not any kind of necessary condition, but something that could end up playing out that involved a bounce first before consolidating back down in a lower level (somewhere around the 200-week moving average area.. or whatever ends up being then plausible).

Long time no update. Since breaking down below $20K price has remained bearish while consolidating at the lows. While price has been more or less stagnant for over a week, there has been some changes.

Price remains within clear cut horizontal support and resistance levels, as indicated by the volume profile. While rejection from $20.2K and failure of prices to move higher further confirms resistance, the failure of the bears to finally push prices below $18.7K shows bearish momentum is weaker than expected. While the trend remains bearish, bulls have at least negated bearish follow through for now. The target for an upside move would be around $21.5K if resistance can be cleared, where previous distribution occurred that remains an un-tested resistance level, while to the downside more likely much lower prices.



More relevant than the short-term noise of the 4hr chart is the Daily however. The volume point of control from the past 9+ months has now officially lowered from $20.8K to $19.5K, specifically due to the increased trading between $19K and $20K in recent days which is now additionally in line with the past 2+ years of trading point of control. While price remains bearish below this level, if price is able to continue consolidating at this support range rather than break down then not all hope is lost for a recovery. The current accumulation/distribution zone therefore is now more accurately between $19K and $21.5K, as opposed to $20K and $22K.



There is additionally strong bullish divergence on the Daily RSI as the price strength returns to neutral territory. This indicates room to re-test bullish conditions >60 given the divergence, as well as room for further downside towards/into oversold territory given the current long-term bear market structure. Not forgetting potentially the obviousness of both scenarios such as a re-test of $21.5K followed by further downside.



Notably despite bearish fed news in recent days, price has rallied to the upside as well as remained above $18.5K since the announcement. This is quite obviously because this news was already priced in, therefore instead of a further dump, price instead attempted a rally back to the upside. This is somewhat reminiscent of the "super bearish" July 13th CPI news at the lows whereby Bitcoin rallied 20% to the upside afterwards. This isn't to imply that a 20% pump is incoming, only that the same short-term fake-out bear trap to the downside occurred in both scenarios, followed by price rallying to the upside.



Overall, after 3 months of consolidation at the lows, it's likely price will need to consolidate for a further 1-3 months before being able to move significantly back to the upside, rather than any immediate rally back towards $30K, ie a breakout towards the end of the year if the current yearly lows hold. During this period it would create easier stepping stones for forming a bottom as moving averages continue to decline and long-term bullish divergences confirm, such as the CMF and RSI (as well as no doubt others), that so far have formed 3 months of bullish divergence, but clearly lack any confirmation of price follow through.

After a sharp 12% correction yesterday, price clearly failed to turn $21.5K previous resistance into support, thus falling back down to longer-term support range around $20K. With the 50 MA still rising but price below and the 200 MA continuing to decline, price remains bearish on this time-frame below both moving averages. However returning to the norm in between these two MAs around $21K would be a likely outcome.



While falling below the local support around $19.5K would again increase the chance or making new lows, price is currently holding the 0.382 fib (expected) retracement level from the recent swing low to swing high, so for now a re-test back towards $21.1K (0.618 retracement) at minimum becomes more likely in the short-term, even if it turns into a dead cat bounce before lower lows.




Despite anticipating some form of correction or consolidation, the selling became aggressive with the RSI returning not to bullish territory, but back to bearish territory. The positive outcome has been that price strength remains in it's month long uptrend, the longest seeen since the capitulation to $17.5K. The previously established bullish divergence support trend-line therefore remains in tact for now.





On the Daily chart price is back to the neutral 20 Day MA after failing to turn the 50 Day MA into support, as well as the RSI getting rejected from bullish territory, somewhat as anticipated. Arguably not a lot has changed compared to market structure a week or two ago as price remains within the accumulation zone of $20K to $22K, only that the 50 Day MA has returned to a bearish decline after failure of price holding higher levels. Therefore while the mid-term MA provides a bearish bias, the structure remains neutral within the accumulation zone, only really being rejected from leaving this zone to the upside.



TL:DR

Despite the bearish Daily candle yesterday, in reality it only managed to engulf 3 days worth of price action which isn't substantial, not even the +10% from 5 days ago. Most importantly price has found buyers again from $20K, the level which previously failed to hold as support prior to to the move to $18.5K. Without bearish follow through, it doesn't amount to that much apart from the obvious decline in price, as well as negating any immediate bullish outlook of higher price targets towards $23K to $24K, as well as successfully leaving the accumulation zone between $20K and $22K.

With Bitcoin now reaching as high as $22.6K, the buying pressure has started to decrease as price attempts to consolidate at higher levels. The immediate support to the downside remains at $21.5K local volume point of control, where the 200 MA is priced and beginning to shed it's bearish bias. Ideally price can consolidate here until the 50 MA reaches this level for a golden cross. To the upside the upper target would be around $24K, where there was previous distribution as well as the previous wedge support trend-line now confirmed as resistance (as of $25K swing high). The arrows represent the new found trading range.




While remaining bullish on the 4hr with price above the 50 & 200 MAs, the 4hr has since returned to bullish territory from overbought, after spending the longest time oversold on this time-frame since February. If price can find support from this level then further upside is to be expected, but otherwise as previously referenced the 4hr still needs to cool off with further consolidation at minimum.




The available trading range on the Daily chart is similar to the 4hr, however with a bullish close back above the 50 Day MA price could find support from ~$22K as opposed to $21.5K.



More relevant in this time-frame however is the RSI which is again attempting to enter bullish territory after previous failed attempts to maintain these levels in July & August. Hence despite the bullish close back above the 50 Day MA, it's likely price will struggle to maintain this higher price strength level, given the current conditions of the long-term bear market. If price is able to maintain bullish territory >60 on the RSI there remains further room to the upside on this time-frame towards $24K in order to reach overbought territory at 70. This will likely be determined by whether price can immediately turn the 50 Day MA into support.

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TL:DR


Price structure has otherwise met the conditions of being bullish on most time-frames that I outlined last week and can now be summarised as follows:

4hr: Bullish above it's MAs but likely needs more time to cool-off (consolidate or correct) towards nearby support of $21.5K
Daily: Returned to bullish above the flattened 50 Day MA as well as above the accumulation zone of $20K to $22K
Weekly: Remains bearish based on MAs but otherwise confirmed a macro higher low with a bullish close
Monthly: Remains neutral in between previous opening and closing prices of $20K to $23.3K

Just saw your comment, thanks for your input, and yes please don't   The market remains very fragile so could easily go either way right now

I otherwise mainly do it for myself as helps to formalise my opinions, but also so I can look back at things I said or anticipated and see where I was right or wrong. It's a lot easier to be wrong than right in this market, so it's useful to identify where mistakes are made etc. A lot of it is simply trying to identify levels of support and resistance, as this is the main stepping stone for successful trading.


You did well with that short earlier in the year catching most of the capitulation, so I believe you when you say this! I was too busy looking for price to find support  


It certainly is an interesting time. Many have already considered Bitcoin dead this year because it hasn't risen in price over the wave of inflation, but really in hindsight it just seems like it was due a bear market (time wise) that coincidentally timed in with inflation. For example, if there was no recession right now, price would probably be around the same price imo, just with some differing short-term price action to get there.

If it wasn't for the recession, I'm sure others would find another excuse for why Bitcoin is dead this year. Another way to look at this is that if high inflation arrived in 2020, when price was around $10K, then Bitcoin goes to $60K, many would have attributed that to the macro economic climate, as opposed to Bitcoin's own individual monetary policy and 4-year cycles for example.

My rambling point is many want/need to attribute "reasons" for price going up or down, rather than just accept it's the natural order of markets to go up and down, rather than in straight lines.


Indeed, I try and stick with the technicals rather than any fundamentals when analysing price. I like to think that the TA should at least reflect that, as well as the reality that a lot of the macro climate is already "priced in", so trying to trade of this is a backwards strategy imo. I'll never forget the super bearish CPI numbers in July causing price to pump 20% to the upside, completely against all so-called fundamental TA.

As I've said elsewhere, people don't capitulate because the recession is at it's worst - they sell because they are anticipating the worst before it happens.

Now the price shift from $21K+ to $22K+ is already happening in the market and I think it's definitely possible to go even higher in the near future if it's only for $24K+. Because realistically that number is very close to the amount of prices currently circulating in the market. I also have no doubts about the increase in the price of Bitcoin which could happen in an unexpected time, because Bitcoin has been trusted by many investors, companies, state governments and also daily crypto traders who always see Bitcoin as their main option in seeking profit.

On the 4hr, price has now confirmed $21.5K volume point of control into new support after moving above the 200 MA. This makes a drop back down to the support level of $20K less likely in the immediate term, unless this new support is broken. The RSI has otherwise remained overbought for 3 days since the move to $20.6K, further highlighting the strong buying pressure right now. Immediate targets for the current upswing would be around $23K to $24K where there was some distribution from sellers, otherwise further confirming the new support for the RSI to cool off remains quite likely.




Today price is attempting to move out of the "neutral zone" between $20K and $22K, otherwise considered the long-term accumulation range. Additionally price is testing the relatively flat (neutral) 50 Day MA at $20.2K that will be a key level to close above on the Daily time-frame in order for bullish continuation, that additionally lines up with the RSI entering bullish territory >60. With the 200 Day MA fast declining and now priced around $30K, where previous support failed, this becomes the next likely target on this time-frame based on the current potential for the Daily chart to become bullish.




More interestingly yesterday the Weekly closed strong at $21.8K helping to confirm a double bottom / higher macro low. Using the 260 Week MA as a 5 Year MA, it becomes clearer that price is finding support from it's macro long-term uptrend. The next test will be the 200 Week MA around $23.3K, while also the 20 Week MA is fast declining now at $24.8K that will need to be cleared for a full blown price reversal.



While based on price action it's still early days to be confirming this local low as a macro low (especially based on the Monthly time-frame that remains very neutral), with the Weekly RSI continuing to trend higher it's certainly looking more likely as price moves back above $22K. Based on the 2019 bottom and relevant MAs, we could still only be 60% towards forming this bottom, ie another couple of months before finally clearing the $25K hurdle, rather than an immediate reversal now that $20K has again held as support on longer time-frames, which could therefore lead to further consolidation between $21K and $24K.

Keep going.  You analysis is legendary in my opinion.  Hope I did not just jinx you.

I find this an extremely interesting market currently.  Not only is this action inside this particular bitcoin "cycle" somewhat unique, but we are in a very unusual macro environment for the entire Earth currently.  I am not well versed in TA at ALL.  But I am good at predicting the future.  Had I acted on all the things I have seen I would be muuch richer. Lol.  In fact I just filled up the tank of my little 4 cyl diesel truck because... diesel?  We are going to see that go up soon. See if I am not right.

That said, I know your tech analysis has nothing to do with those variables... but seeing what is happening technically with BTC against that backdrop is an engine for thought.  Like I said... keep it up.

After some antipcated resistance from the 200 MA at $21.6K, as well as short-term volume point of control, price has since closed above these levels on the 4hr after consolidation highlighting the strength of buying pressure. Despite the 4hr reaching oversold levels close to 80 on the RSI, the bulls remain fully in control on this time-frame. The short-term question is whether the $21.5K level of old resistance can become new support, or whether price will correct further in order for the RSI to cool off. Needless to say, betting against such a strong uptrend at present is only asking for further short liquidations.




With price now clearing the bearish trending 200 MA on the 4hr with ease, moving above the 50 Day MA around $22K that has since lost it's bearish bias as it moves sideways can't be ruled out, I'm therefore not anticipating this level to act as resistance, despite the need for a short-term correction in order for the 4hr to return to bullish territory from oversold, which could instead come from sideways consolidation. I had previously considered a re-test of $20K support after the strong move to the upside, but after today's consolidation it seems the bulls have other ideas, even if this level remains possible.




With only 24 hours to go until the Weekly close, a strong bullish candle looks increasingly likely, possibly around $21.5K rather than simply $20K given the current short-term price strength. While this won't rule out a correction next towards $20K, it will help to further confirm a macro higher low on the weekly time-frame that remains crucial for further confirmation of the $17.5K low being in.

The similarity with the 2019 bottom is becoming increasingly clear; that of a bear trap higher low 2 months after the initial low, followed by reclaiming the 50 Day MA and grinding higher. Key dates next week will be the 15th when MtGox finalises coin distribution as well as Ethereum merge date, followed by the 18th - whereby it will be officially be 3 months since the $17.5K (enough time for a bottom to form).

Price had a strong bullish move today, not only ripping through the $20K level that was previous support with no resistance, but also reaching $21K levels where price previously faced resistance. While my outlook has naturally changed from bearish to bullish as price increases by 10%, it's worth noting the bearish trending 200 MA is at $21.6K that is likely to act as resistance, despite $20K failing to do so.




The bullish divergence on the 4hr most certainly played out with the RSI reaching and currently maintaining overbought conditions, the highest levels since May this year (over 3 months):



On the Daily chart, price is back within the $20K to $22K accumulation zone, as well as above the volume point of control from the past year at $20.8K after confirming a double bottom reversal. While not a fan of double bottoms, I am a believer in high buying pressure. Clearing the 50 Day MA around $22K will be the last signal to confirm a full reversal and bullish trend on the Daily time-frame.

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Referencing yesterday's analysis of price, it seems clear the 4hr is providing bullish potential (between the 50 & 200 MAs) while the Daily chart has returned to neutral (back in accumulation and in between the 20 & 50 Day MAs). More relevant right now is the bullish wick on the Weekly chart that if confirms with a close above $20K, would confirm a higher low, approximately 3 months after the yearly low. With the 4hr due for a pull-back towards $20K near to the 50 MA, finding support from this level will be the required bullish confirmation in order to close the week strong after a 15% rally from the recent lows.




Ironically, this is exactly what happened. The bulls took advantage of how fragile the short-term bear trend was, and have turned the market to their advantage with a strong break above $20K. To be clear, this isn't just a short-term reversal of price, this is additionally signalling a macro higher low as a confirmation of a bear market bottom. Only the Daily chart remains neutral while short to long-term looks very bullish.


This will be the most important weekly close for the past few months. With the 4hr and Weekly chart looking bullish while the Daily chart remains relatively neutral in between moving average and the accumulation zone, closing the week above $20K will confirm the bullish wick. Ideally a close above $21K would avoid the indecisive doji candle now price has already reached +6% from the candle open.

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No, most people will consider this a dead cat bounce until price reaches >$25K. But already it's looking like the higher low on a macro scale (weekly) that will likely confirm by the end of the week. I was very sceptical once $20K was lost and price became increasingly bearish, but otherwise this is type of price movement was exactly what was required to help confirm that the low is already in.

^^That "sudden change" is the thing that looks the most realistic to me. I get that not many people feels the same way but I feel like if we could end up seeing it change like that, then we could go up way too high without any trouble. People do not see how easy it could be to reach 24k+ prices again, yes it's not happening right now, but if we were to try to go up, it would be super simple and that's the point.

This is why I am not scared as a bitcoin holder, I trust that we are going to have that easily and it is going to end up with a success for sure. I know that it is going to be taking a while, but it is going to get back there for sure without a doubt.

Rather than do another full analysis of price today, while price remains bearish under $20K, I thought it'd be worth correcting myself on the general theory that there is nothing bullish in the short-term chart right now. Currently there is strong bullish divergence on the RSI that is holding on the 4hr chart after the drop to $18.5K, so it wouldn't be accurate to say there is nothing bullish in the short-term right now:



While this bullish divergence does leave room to re-test the downside, probably around similar prices, it none the less does show that each downside move since August 19th has become weaker and weaker, with selling pressure (volume) also confirming this theory. Given price remains in a bear market, the confirmation of this bullish divergence would be an RSI move back to bullish territory above 60 (that remains elusive).


Despite the bearish outlook on all time-frames, with a new yearly closing low on the Daily chart, as well as general bearish price action on the 4hr, it remains possible for the bulls to neutralise this bearish sentiment without much increase in price. To summarise this theory, it would be as follows based on a close at the end of the week:

>$20K: Weekly chart creates a bullish wick to the downside in order to create a macro higher low, 4hr further confirms bullish divergence theory (bullish potential)
>$21K: Daily chart becomes less bearish, almost neutral, price returns to the volume point of control of the accumulation/distribution zone (mid-term neutral)
>$22K: Price confirms $20K to $22K trading range as accumulation again, as well as moving back above the 50 Day MA (bullish on most time-frames)

While it might seem unrealistic for price to reclaim all of these levels if any, the point is that if this does happen it can swiftly change the immediate bearish outlook on the charts right now. Based on the Bitcoin's volatility at present, which is at considerable lows, a return of volatility (even if only short-term) is to be expected, either with a break-down to new lows or a reclamation of previous accumulation zone.

I'm not even suggesting that any of these bullish-based scenarios will play-out, only that the bearish outlook right now remains fragile, as it wouldn't take much of a move to the upside to change the outlook.

With yesterday's break-down, price has reached the measured move target of the descending triangle but remains increasingly bearish. The bears are threatening to break the final higher low from June that would likely see a re-test of $17.5K yearly low. Furthermore the local volume point of control has now lowered to around $20K, which will likely act as new resistance if price is able to move higher.




With price now confirming $20K to $22K trading zone as distribution from the past years worth of trading volume, after initially confirming it as accumulation, all hope for bullish continuation has been lost for now in the mid-term unless $20K is reclaimed. If the bulls are able to achieve this, then it would neutralise the bearish outlook for now until $22K is reclaimed which would provide a bullish bias.




With price closing a new yearly low on the Daily time-frame ($18.8K), price has found some buyers at oversold levels (<30) which remains the only hope for a relief rally. There is an argument for hidden bullish divergence given the double bottom closing lows and price strength at higher levels, but this also means price can fall lower while maintain regular bullish divergence before seeing an upswing in price.



It could be argued that price remains in an accumulation/distribution level based on the past two years of trading volume with a point of control around $20K, that therefore includes trading from late 2020, but ultimately the main concern is the large volume gap between $18K and $14K, and therefore a collapse to considerably lower levels would be highly likely if the yearly lows are lost.



On the Weekly time-frame, a close back above $20K (the weeks opening price) would provide the sort of bullish wick to the downside that would help confirmation a higher low after 3 months of consolidation at the lows (enough time to form a macro bottom). Price would therefore first have to breach this resistance level which has been proven to be a high volume selling area, so won't be easy.

Fortunately price only needs to increase by 6% and close the week at this level (~$20K) in order to return some bullish bias on the Weekly time-frame, but this will be against the tide of sellers in the short to mid-term time-frame that have shown strength in recent days and weeks. With the fear around MtGox distribution finalising next week, this is also unlikely to inspire many buyers right now.

Firstly, I personally wouldn't trading using the monthly RSI. That'd be for investing at best, as it's based on the longest time-frame possible: the monthly time-frame. Or otherwise just completely ignoring as it's historically never been bearish (<40) so doesn't really tell you much, only when price is overbought on this time-frame. It's therefore a "one-purpose indicator" for selling too early, not much else imo. Only this year did it first become relevant when it signalled bearish divergence at $69K, but otherwise has never signalled any bullish divergence, which is one of the main uses of the RSI generally speaking.

It also doesn't suggest price hasn't bottomed, only that there isn't confirmation of a bottom. The confirmation on the monthly wouldn't come until >$30K at least if $17.5K were the bottom. For example the RSI rebounding in 2019 and back above the mid-level was only by the end of April, when price was at $5.2K. Sure that price was a good entry for the long-term, but also far away both time & price from the $3.2K low four months prior to that. Similar to 2015 the break-out of the RSI was in October 2015, 10 months after the low with a close of $300, +100% from the lows of $150. Neither time did it signal any useful bullish divergence. Meanwhile, there were a handful of indicators that were able to confirm a bottom prior to that.

TL:DR: You're highlighting an indicator that's currently neutral (between 40-60) to highlight that we're in a bear market and the bottom isn't in, makes no sense. Maybe wait until it turns bearish first?

This is otherwise why investors use the Weekly RSI, rarely ever the Monthly. The Monthly RSI would be useful for confirming a bottom out of a decade long bear market, like for example with Gold in the 90s where it finally formed strong bullish divergence in order to confirm a bottom in the market after being in a downtrend for 19 years. This also remain the only relevant example I can actually think of!