Masyadong vague ang pagkakaroon ng bull run sa panahon ngayon, knowing na nagrerecover pa rin ang karamihan sa losses gawa ng 2018 downfall ng price at yung iba naman eh umayaw na with no assurance na may makakabalik ulit. IMO, once the momentum heats up at magkaroon ng similarity sa trading volume plus positive news sa crypto space, like what happened on Q1 2017, we might see gradual increases here and there, but then again hindi laging pare-pareho ang recipe ng pag-angat to ATH. The $19k peak on 2017 is largely attributed sa credit card purchases ng bitcoin which forced major players to prohibit the practice.
Sa darating na 2020, I can't quite see anong magiging "recipe for disaster" para umusad ulit sa ATH, though the only similarity we can take from these ingredients eh yung pagtaas talaga ng trading volume in all platforms na kadalasang sinisimulan ng mga Chinese at Koreans at fina-follow lang ng West to sustain the momentum.
It has always been like that every halving, though yung appreciation ng price e laging delayed effect kaya mahirap mag-bank sa
possibility lalo kung ang trader e mainipin at hindi alam ang history ng bitcoin since it hit the speculation era. Funnily enough, a few weeks before July 2016 halving, nasa $750 ang peak ng trading price at nung pumasok ang mismong halving, bumaba ito ng $100 ($650), which is big considering the price back then.
Every bitcoin halving has its own tempo, own pace and own momentum, but is almost always guaranteed to bring profits--though at a later time than the actual event itself.
Pero mukhang sa ngayon ay mahirap na itong mangyari dahil na nga sa manipulated na ang presyo at kung tumaas man ito ay malamang na magiging katulad lamang ito noong 2017 kung saan malalim ang ibinagsak dahil narin sa na hype ang presyo ng bitcoins noon. Kung saan kahit ako na wala pang masyadong kaaalaman sa ganitong events e napabili din.
Since bitcoin hit the major exchanges and a lot of people traded, manipulated na talaga ang price--mas malala pa nga pre-2014 and 2015 regulation introductions. Kung tutuusin, mas maayos na nga ang scene ngayon, less ang wash trading, kakaunti ang nagpapump and dump hindi tulad noon na kaya ng isang entity kontrolin ang price na parang ventriloquist sa pagmo-move sa iba't ibang exchange. 2017 was a huge hype train para sa bitcoin, and it introduced the cryptocurrency in more ways compared to its 2013 ATH counterpart dahil sobrang grabe talaga ng price, from $300 to $19000 in a span of over a year lang.
Sa akin lang, mahirap mag-spot ng next bull run dahil lagi namang may nangyayaring green streaks sa bitcoin, take Q2-Q3 2019 for example.