Topic: Bullrun top - page 4. (Read 1051 times)

On second thought: doesn't the anticipation speed up the pattern? If enough people start buying Bitcoin because they expect it to go up, it will go up. But then they'll expect it to drop eventually, so they'll start selling. They don't want to be too late, so they'll sell earlier and earlier each bull run until eventually the increased scarcity from the halving is completely included in the price before the halving even happens.

Yes, but always bearing in mind that what has happened historically need not be repeated in this cycle, as has been discussed, and, in fact, as more and more cycles pass, we will most likely see more irregularities in the supposed historical pattern (I say supposed because patterns are a human construct, as I have explained in several threads on the subject).

But yes, I too think it is quite safe to buy now and we will have an interesting appreciation over the next year or year and a half.

Based on historical data, after Bitcoin's halving event, Bitcoin will break its old peak 6 months later. The Bitcoin Halving event is expected to take place on April 20, so if based on what has happened, around the end of this year (October to December) we will see Bitcoin break through  its old peak of 69k USD in 2021. So, to prepare for the upcoming growth of Bitcoin, I believe now is the best time to accumulate and buy Bitcoin. If we take the current price of 40k USD, then if you buy now, at least by the end of the year you will have a profit of about 75% with almost no risk. I think this is the most attractive investment this year

Well, if we look at it historically, I don't think that's entirely true. 

In the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was still in its early stages of development, and adoption was much much lower. 

First halving cycle (November 2012 - July 2016) - Highest price $1,170 (November 2013)   

In the 2016 halving, Bitcoin had gained more traction, and adoption was increasing. The price reached $1040 in 2016, which was still below the previous all-time high from 2013, but very close. The price reached a new ATH in February 2017.

Second halving cycle (July 2016 - May 2020) - Highest price $19,400 (December 2017)   

The price reached $20,000 in 2020 (after the third halving), which surpassed the previous all-time high from 2017. The closing price for BTC in 2020 was $28,994.00, on December 31, which is almost a 50% increase compared to the previous ATH.

So if history repeats itself, we could even see >100k by the end of this year.

sources:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price

Hey the question remains the same because $69k is the current ATH which was achieved in last cycle hence the question would be Bitcoin breaches it's previous ATH and reaches new ATH in the halving year. The answer would be "NO", Bitcoin doesn't breach the previous ATH in the halving year but rather the following year and I think the cycle will repeat and Bitcoin might not break $69k this year since 2024 is the halving year. It should eventually happen in 2025.

I think he was referring to the previous cycle's ATH, not the new ATH.  So, the right question would be, considering previous cycles, do we expect 69k by the end of this year?

alot of people were expecting the ETF locked and unlocking of coins and swapping between ETF would have happened on OTC platforms like coinbase premium or other darkpool markets

but it appears coinbase was selling ex-etf locked coins into the main coinbase spot market

there are some things that influence when things happen

for instance the 2011 ATH was influenced by the transition to GPU pool mining that intensified
for instance the 2013 ATH was influenced public release of ASIC mining

the 2017 influenced by the dev celebration of segwit mandated completion before their sponsors november 2017 deadline
 the 2021 influenced by bot traders trying to predict the top using historic patterns.. so ended up with a twin peak event (loyce mentioned curve)

with the halving happening in april means the +1 year is minimum april 2025 for ATH and as i said spring summer.. meaning AFTER april
..
there are some speculations the reason why some ATH hit near year end was more to do with certain traders tax year ends of december. as when they would want to invest before year end. if they can only invest so much per tax year

im not going to speculate that the pattern will exact follow again because of these reasons:
this years halving is earlier in year than previous

though 2017 was december peak many people delayed ATH earlier due to segwit drama and deals and tax

however the 2012 halving was november 28th but the 2013 ATH nov 2013 so started FOMO before the 1+ year
so not exactly like some are speculating as 500 days..

2021 twin peaked april and october

so its not a golden rule of 500+ days.. in some cases its more like 1 year after halving
...
another prime reason not to settle on waiting for december 2025 is that people are already planing on a ATH happening sometime from start of summer 2025<->year-end 2025. so that planning usually breaks a pattern to make the furthest date predictions happen sooner because everyone is getting motivated to "get-in" before the FOMO

In my opinion it's not a good thing, it looks good but not great and right or wrong I see it looks like a recent decline like a market response test.

That's why it was only during those times that there was only rejection of the bitcoin spot ETF, right? In this instance, during this period, no decline occurred in the Spot ETF, and there was now an opportunity to buy directly from institutional investors who were approved by the US SEC.

It means that it is possible that in these halving times, the ATH of 70k$ that happened in 2021 will actually be exceeded because many whale investors can manipulate the target price they want to happen. It may or may not happen like that. Especially since there are many people who expect to earn $100,000 each bitcoin this year (2024-2025) or more.

See here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63374431

Its never been less than a year from halving to subsequent high:

2012 it took 366 days to reach the high
2016 it took 526 days
2020 it took 548 days

Assuming the pattern more or less repeats, it'll be 5-600 days after the halving, say 16-20 months, say Aug to Dec 2025.

My guess is the high will be between 100 and 150k, most likely nearer to 100k.

Yes, I think you are right. If the historical pattern repeats itself, I think we could see 70k by the end of this year.

Peak bullrun quarter 2024, I'm not so sure because after the halving, it will wait 1 year more, which is the prediction known from various sources including the previous cycle is almost the same.
Q4 2024 won't be the peak but it might be back to the previous ATH of $68K the rest we don't know because we can't pinpoint the exact time only guesses where we have different views.
It may be too early to say, but it's okay if you want to do it because someone has a target prediction about bitcoin this is part of speculation people are free to do it, my prediction is 2025 (maybe Q3/4 2025).

Yeah, I think 2024 will probably be a wild ride for cryptocurrencies.  There's scheduled to be another Bitcoin halving event in May 2024.  That could set off a frenzy like we saw in 2017 and 2021.  But you never know - the economy or new regulations could change things too. 

We've all noticed Bitcoin seems to peak after these halving events.  The last two times, we hit all-time highs about a year later.  But past performance doesn't guarantee future results or anything. and  In crypto, expect the unexpected.

2024 will be interesting either way.  I just hope we dont see a repeat of the crypto winter that followed 2021's highs. 

Good post, only wondering why you think that next ATH is going to happen in spring/summer of 2025? Until now, all ATHs were reached in November/December.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bitcoin normally reaches previous cycle's ATH during the halving year. Then why do you think we're not going to exceed last cycle's ATH this year? 

I was already surprised the previous ATH was "round" instead of a very steep increase followed by a hard collapse.

As much as I expect a new ATH after the halving, there comes a day it won't happen.

We know there's going to be bullrun but we are not certain about when this is going to begin, so it's expected that we always get ourselves prepared, anything can show up immediately after halving or later in the year, halving is coming through between the first and second quarter of this year, which after this comes the bullrun, there will always be a market pump and we will experience a new high with as many digital currencies as possible in the crypto market, this begins with bitcoin.

With franky1 here, I've posted over the years and stand by my belief in ATH a year after halving. Even without the economic impact on sentiment (I always think it's because of belated realisation but over time pricing in with more awareness of halving lessens that impact) I still think the ATH should follow the same pattern.

It's not yet too well known, for some reason. Because I'm now past experiencing my second ATH and we still have experts predicting tops around or even before halving. Guess they all want the pattern shattered.

Absolutely that’s when normally we see the new ATH price for the Bitcoins. If we see the past graph, then always around October and November we have seen Bitcoins going really up and breaking the ATH price. So we have enough time to accumulate as many Bitcoins as we can. So don’t panic much and buy the coins at normal price. Then hold for the Q4th of the year and you will make maximum profit.

Let's just wait and hope for a greater days ahead. After ETF approval the price was expected to surge higher than the $49k, but currently it's down and nobody know what next. But whatever the case may be, it's of good porpos.