since october when the hashrate decline of pools getting ready for the next gen ASIC switchover began. profitability changed those unable to obtain bitcoin cheaply through mining stopped and those who could carry on have. and now they get a bigger slice of rewards due to less competition. thus they can sell more cheaply
there is a market/mining dynamic that plays out as a result. no one wants to sell for less than cost. and everyone is looking for the cheapest way to obtain bitcoin. so there is a correlation between mining and the markets.
just watch for when (not a temporary hourly/daily average) a weekly/monthly average of hashrate rises. and you will see the market follow
looking at the most efficient mining. (i done the math to make it easy) take the hashrate and multiply it by 104 and you will find the dynamic number of minimum mining cost / minimum bitcoin sell value
its not a hard rule as sometimes you get the odd early adopter/panic seller that wishes to push beyond that. but after that temporary event, the early adoptor/panic seller no longr has their coin so they cant re-push the price using coins they no longer have,
but in general you will see the dynamic play out where by the price stays at or above the 104 multiple of exahashes
take right now ~32exa *104=3328........ current price ~3400
this correlation has been well known for 8+ years
heres hal finneys first ever post on the forum talking about it in 2010
One reason price might follow difficulty is that mining should not be too profitable (because nothing should be too profitable, the world doesn't leave free money lying around). Therefore the price of Bitcoins can't rise too much above the cost of mining (counting equipment depreciation among the costs of course). The cost of mining is proportional to the difficulty (approximately). Therefore we might expect to see price proportional to difficulty.
We do see a nearly proportional relationship in the 1st graph, but that data set was incomplete. I'd like to see that last graph redone with a linear difficulty scale so we could see how the proportionality holds up with more data.
the dynamic exists because if mining is too profitable miners sell. bringing down the price.
the dynamic exists because if mining is too expensive people just buy. bringing up the price.
people will always find the cheapest way to get bitcoin. and people avoid selling bitcoin at a loss. so price staying around the cost of mining has shown a correlation even 8 years later