bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game - page 55.

jonsi

legendary

Activity: 1397

Merit: 1019

"
!prob >= 2.06
Shiba: Probability of ≥2.06: 47.814538%

"

So this means in 1000 games 478 should be wins and 522 looses. This is a 44 difference (522-478=44)
In 1686 games this means that 806 (805.9 to be exact) should be wins and 880 should be looses. This is a 74 difference.

The reality:

I played 1686 consecutive games with 2.06 cashout point.
~~The results: 777 games won and 909 games lost. This is a 132 difference.~~

The difference of 132 is nearly double as it should been, 74.

This is pure matematics and probabilities. The deviation is way to big. A 10% - maxim 20% could call normal because of the variance, but nearly double?? I have made many tests with randon numbers and this is not normal.

The conclusion: I think the game it's NOT FAIR.

Edited: By the way, the last game ID thai I played is 1933142, and the first I guess is 1933142-1686.

-edited-
I had an error when recording data from game.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Buziss on October 10, 2015, 12:21:10 PM

If so, it seems quite suspicious to me. I mean, how unlikely is it for a player to win over 200 bitcoin within a short period of time, when the max bet per game is only 1 bitcoin?

I don't think it changes the probability whether the two accounts are controlled by a single person or two different people.

Quote from: RHavar on October 10, 2015, 12:51:07 PM

Probably the more relevant figure is the "max profit", but yes, it's rather unlikely. The site losing ~100 btc in a day, has only happened 4 times in BaB history I believe. The last two, which were right after each other. Sad

Also more relevant is how often has the site seen the level of betting required to have such big gains or losses.

Some hand-wavy calculations:

Every time there's very heavy betting (like risking a sustained 1 BTC per round, say) it's very likely that the site is either going to win a lot or lose a lot. With the low house edge at bustabit I guess it's not far from a 50/50 win-a-lot / lose-a-lot split for the site when someone's betting heavily.

So when you have two accounts betting heavily on the same day, it's around a 25% chance that they both win a lot.

(Or if it's a 40% chance of the site ending up down when a single player bets like that, it's still a 16% chance that it happens on both accounts).

Then there's also the consideration that he probably wouldn't have even played on the 2nd account if the 1st account had busted, since he wouldn't have had the coins available to do so.

RHavar

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Activity: 1463

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Quote from: Buziss on October 10, 2015, 12:21:10 PM

If so, it seems quite suspicious to me. I mean, how unlikely is it for a player to win over 200 bitcoin within a short period of time, when the max bet per game is only 1 bitcoin?

Probably the more relevant figure is the "max profit", but yes, it's rather unlikely. The site losing ~100 btc in a day, has only happened 4 times in BaB history I believe. The last two, which were right after each other. Sad

Buziss

hero member

Activity: 896

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Venusianism on October 10, 2015, 11:56:04 AM

Quote from: Shogen on October 09, 2015, 01:27:28 PM

Quote from: RHavar on October 09, 2015, 12:39:33 PM

Players have won an incredible 200 bitcoin in the last four days!

And it is indeed contributed only by 2 whales. realhavok's net profit went from -50 to +50 within 2 days, and whitetuxpeng's net profit went from -100 to +6 in a day.

Lol.

"Two whales"

Why do people keep getting confused, after all the times me & the man himself, explicitly confirmed they were 1 & the same person..? The bet patterns are obvious o.O ; Again, Realhavok + Whitetuxpeng + Coin Rocketeer + Pho King + Finand -> Same player.. 9_9
-snip-

If so, it seems quite suspicious to me. I mean, how unlikely is it for a player to win over 200 bitcoin within a short period of time, when the max bet per game is only 1 bitcoin?

RHavar

legendary

Activity: 1463

Merit: 1886

Sorry, BaB is getting hit by another DDoS (this one, interestingly most the ip's come from ec2). I've reported the offending ip addresses to AWS, and ramped up the DDoS protection (let me know if you're having issues with that, or need me to whitelist an ip address for your bot)

Venusianism

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Activity: 94

Merit: 10

Quote from: Shogen on October 09, 2015, 01:27:28 PM

Quote from: RHavar on October 09, 2015, 12:39:33 PM

Players have won an incredible 200 bitcoin in the last four days!

And it is indeed contributed only by 2 whales. realhavok's net profit went from -50 to +50 within 2 days, and whitetuxpeng's net profit went from -100 to +6 in a day.

Lol.

"Two whales"

Why do people keep getting confused, after all the times me & the man himself, explicitly confirmed they were 1 & the same person..? The bet patterns are obvious o.O ; Again, Realhavok + Whitetuxpeng + Coin Rocketeer + Pho King + Finand -> Same player.. 9_9

See :

Quote from: Venusianism on September 14, 2015, 04:56:40 PM

Quote from: Zackgeno96 on September 13, 2015, 07:36:47 PM

Quote from: ranlo on September 13, 2015, 06:22:12 PM

Quote from: Zackgeno96 on September 13, 2015, 04:24:56 PM

Quote from: bitwarrior on September 11, 2015, 10:52:32 PM

Quote from: MonsterV on September 11, 2015, 01:57:50 AM

OMG

Just play 532 bet , Get profit 100BTC ++ awesome
How Much BTC need to play like that ?

That is one lucky guy, hoarding 100 btc in that game site. Huga bankroll and balls made of steel for sure Shocked

oh wow i was away from bustabit the last few days i completely missed this, must of been fun to watch haha, it's cool to see wins like this im sure he is one happy fella!!
And the fact he only bet 532 times and won +100btc is truly mind boggling Huh

He hit TTM for almost 50 BTC right after this as well, so he's probably up at least 150 BTC. Not sure if he hit any other sites.

Sorry noob question here but what do you mean by TTM? when you look at his user history https://www.bustabit.com/user/Phoking the highest he went upto was 104+btc, he's now dropped to 61.41btc, the largest win i can see in his history is for i think 5 btc? does TTM not show on user history or what Undecided

It's not '1 lucky guy'. His accounts :

Real havoc happened to that bankroll indeed..
The Legendary Great White Tux..
Coin Rocketeer
Pho King
Finand

Tech Analysis..? Shocked

[Unconfirmed]
The Winnerer..? Shocked

[Unconfirmed]

^It's a recurring player who plays very recklessly, w/ no real strategy, and just submits his balance to 'Lady Luck' entirely. He's openly confirmed he maintains the above-listed^ accounts, and more, which as you can see, have lost about the same as the amounts he's earned on 'Phoking', 'CoinRocketeer' & 'Finand' so it kinda balances out overall, but props to him, as apparently.. "[..] ..~~dispel this myth that it's possible to reliably be this lucky (e.g. from 7 to 110btc)~~[..]" ..it seems he actually managed to prove, so far, that it's possible to "reliably" make this kind of $20-30k comeback in less than half a day ;/

..Oh & btw Ryan, nice web/account/DB server xDDDDD (love teasing him ;p) :

Shogen

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1001

Quote from: RHavar on October 09, 2015, 01:34:54 PM

Quote from: Shogen on October 09, 2015, 01:27:28 PM

And it is indeed contributed only by 2 whales. realhavok's net profit went from -50 to +50 within 2 days, and whitetuxpeng's net profit went from -100 to +6 in a day.

Yeah, they were by far and away the biggest winners. But the games in general during this period of time have been pretty good. Like gizane and a few others have done pretty well too, (and a few others have done badly Sad

)

Your site profit was 620 a week ago, became 510 two days ago and 440 a day ago and is now 464. But you seem to be pretty calm at it but to be honest, I can't imagine the stress you are having for running the site.

RHavar

legendary

Activity: 1463

Merit: 1886

Quote from: Shogen on October 09, 2015, 01:27:28 PM

And it is indeed contributed only by 2 whales. realhavok's net profit went from -50 to +50 within 2 days, and whitetuxpeng's net profit went from -100 to +6 in a day.

Yeah, they were by far and away the biggest winners. But the games in general during this period of time have been pretty good. Like gizane and a few others have done pretty well too, (and a few others have done badly Sad

)

Shogen

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1001

Quote from: RHavar on October 09, 2015, 12:39:33 PM

Players have won an incredible 200 bitcoin in the last four days!

And it is indeed contributed only by 2 whales. realhavok's net profit went from -50 to +50 within 2 days, and whitetuxpeng's net profit went from -100 to +6 in a day.

RHavar

legendary

Activity: 1463

Merit: 1886

Players have won an incredible 200 bitcoin in the last four days!

So I'm going to inject another 100 BTC in the bankroll, to keep the max profit nice and fun for everyone. Good luck!

RHavar

legendary

Activity: 1463

Merit: 1886

Quote from: Ghris on October 09, 2015, 03:21:00 AM

Hah, Ryan! Maybe add an option where people can bet where they think the crashpoint will be exactly. Or maybe ranges of crashpoints.

Like: Bet 50 bit that the crash point will be between 1.00 and 1.09. If that happens you get 10x(?) your bet = 500 bits.
If you bet that it will exactly crash at 1.00, you get 99x your bet.

Would be a fun game

Could go crazy on the multipliers though, as you could bet it will crash at exactly 504.94 or something, which has a probability of almost zero.

It's definitely something I've considered, and has volatility benefits, but I think the primary problem is in the UI. Bustabit now at its core is quite an elegant and simple game, but with these sort of side bets it might make it quite difficult to visualize/show without being too confusing

hopenotlate

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Activity: 3402

Merit: 1227

Top Crypto Casino

Quote from: dooglus on October 09, 2015, 11:15:02 AM

Quote from: Ghris on October 09, 2015, 03:21:00 AM

Hah, Ryan! Maybe add an option where people can bet where they think the crashpoint will be exactly. Or maybe ranges of crashpoints.

Like: Bet 50 bit that the crash point will be between 1.00 and 1.09. If that happens you get 10x(?) your bet = 500 bits.
If you bet that it will exactly crash at 1.00, you get 99x your bet.

Would be a fun game

Could go crazy on the multipliers though, as you could bet it will crash at exactly 504.94 or something, which has a probability of almost zero.

As well as adding to the fun this would smooth the volatility for Ryan.

Currently a low crash point means almost everyone loses, and a high crash point means almost everyone wins. Your proposed change would mix up the winning and losing more.

yep true, maybe it's something Ryan should take in consideration.

What about a test period for it? Roll Eyes

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

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Quote from: Ghris on October 09, 2015, 03:21:00 AM

Hah, Ryan! Maybe add an option where people can bet where they think the crashpoint will be exactly. Or maybe ranges of crashpoints.

Like: Bet 50 bit that the crash point will be between 1.00 and 1.09. If that happens you get 10x(?) your bet = 500 bits.
If you bet that it will exactly crash at 1.00, you get 99x your bet.

Would be a fun game

Could go crazy on the multipliers though, as you could bet it will crash at exactly 504.94 or something, which has a probability of almost zero.

As well as adding to the fun this would smooth the volatility for Ryan.

Currently a low crash point means almost everyone loses, and a high crash point means almost everyone wins. Your proposed change would mix up the winning and losing more.

assloua

sr. member

Activity: 397

Merit: 250

★YoBit.Net★ 350+ Coins Exchange & Dice

Quote from: Ghris on October 09, 2015, 03:21:00 AM

Hah, Ryan! Maybe add an option where people can bet where they think the crashpoint will be exactly. Or maybe ranges of crashpoints.

Like: Bet 50 bit that the crash point will be between 1.00 and 1.09. If that happens you get 10x(?) your bet = 500 bits.
If you bet that it will exactly crash at 1.00, you get 99x your bet.

Would be a fun game

Could go crazy on the multipliers though, as you could bet it will crash at exactly 504.94 or something, which has a probability of almost zero.

This would be quite nice to gamble on, a bit like roulette 1-18 / 19-36 Cheesy

and maybe bet on odd/even Tongue

Ghris

sr. member

Activity: 356

Merit: 250

Hah, Ryan! Maybe add an option where people can bet where they think the crashpoint will be exactly. Or maybe ranges of crashpoints.

Like: Bet 50 bit that the crash point will be between 1.00 and 1.09. If that happens you get 10x(?) your bet = 500 bits.
If you bet that it will exactly crash at 1.00, you get 99x your bet.

Would be a fun game

Could go crazy on the multipliers though, as you could bet it will crash at exactly 504.94 or something, which has a probability of almost zero.

ProfessionalGoogler

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Activity: 532

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Quote from: dooglus on October 08, 2015, 12:00:17 PM

Quote from: ProfessionalGoogler on October 07, 2015, 02:43:25 AM

Quote from: RHavar on October 06, 2015, 05:13:46 PM

yeah. This was the craziest cashout I've seen:
https://www.bustabit.com/game/1919136

Can anyone good with math figure out what are the chances of someone even doing this? Right on the dot?

I think the chance any individual game crashing at exactly crash point c is:

((c - 0.99)/c - (c - 1)/(c - 0.01)) * 100/101 : for non-zero c, and
1/101 : for zero c

So the chance of any individual game crashing at exactly 8.16x is 0.000147389, or 1 in 6784.75

... but he didn't play just one game. If you play enough times eventually you're going to cash out right at the crash point I guess.

alright then...

Games Played
42,164

RHavar

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Quote from: ranlo on October 08, 2015, 12:03:25 PM

That's the chance of blowing up at a certain point, but it ignores the chance of him happening to also choose the same point (based on his other bets, he wasn't waiting that long).

Well, as the player has complete control of what they want to cashout at, so it's pretty difficult to assign a probability to it. =)

ranlo

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Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: dooglus on October 08, 2015, 12:00:17 PM

Quote from: ProfessionalGoogler on October 07, 2015, 02:43:25 AM

Quote from: RHavar on October 06, 2015, 05:13:46 PM

yeah. This was the craziest cashout I've seen:
https://www.bustabit.com/game/1919136

Can anyone good with math figure out what are the chances of someone even doing this? Right on the dot?

I think the chance any individual game crashing at exactly crash point c is:

((c - 0.99)/c - (c - 1)/(c - 0.01)) * 100/101 : for non-zero c, and
1/101 : for zero c

So the chance of any individual game crashing at exactly 8.16x is 0.000147389, or 1 in 6784.75

... but he didn't play just one game. If you play enough times eventually you're going to cash out right at the crash point I guess.

That's the chance of blowing up at a certain point, but it ignores the chance of him happening to also choose the same point (based on his other bets, he wasn't waiting that long).

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: ProfessionalGoogler on October 07, 2015, 02:43:25 AM

Quote from: RHavar on October 06, 2015, 05:13:46 PM

yeah. This was the craziest cashout I've seen:
https://www.bustabit.com/game/1919136

Can anyone good with math figure out what are the chances of someone even doing this? Right on the dot?

I think the chance any individual game crashing at exactly crash point c is:

((c - 0.99)/c - (c - 1)/(c - 0.01)) * 100/101 : for non-zero c, and
1/101 : for zero c

So the chance of any individual game crashing at exactly 8.16x is 0.000147389, or 1 in 6784.75

... but he didn't play just one game. If you play enough times eventually you're going to cash out right at the crash point I guess.

ranlo

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

Quote from: RHavar on October 07, 2015, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: ranlo on October 07, 2015, 01:30:38 PM

I thought the reason it blew up was because the max. win had been hit. Does it not explode the rocket when that happens?

Nah, if the max-profit is hit everyone is cashed out at that point (which is earlier than they like) but doesn't affect the actual game bust. He just got super, super lucky Cheesy

Ahh, cool. I think a neat promo next time (like with the coins) would be to do something along the lines of "first person to bet at least 10k bits and cash out at the exact bust point above 3.00x"

Topic: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game - page 55. (Read 293938 times)