Topic: But if China gov say mining is illegal, we are fucked. Haipo Yang‏ ViaBTC CEO - page 2. (Read 4145 times)

Why would we be fucked?

The fun thing about Bitcoin is that lives beyond borders. Mining can be conducted anywhere. Chinese mining operations will pick up and move across the border. You'll barely notice...seriously.

Seriously, why are you worried? Why are we fucked?

Japan is beginning to manufacture their own mining rigs and another country that I do not remember at the moment, so if China bans bitcoin mining after that then it is not going to be such a big deal, besides they could sell their mining rigs but not use it themselves if China gets to that point, but I do not think they are going to do that since they will make a great disservice to themselves with that policy.

That will surely result into huge fall and would take time for us to recover again. If country like Japan will takeover the mining, it will take long before everything goes back to normal not unless they will move quickly. Hope China government won't do such thing as we are near to holiday season where we really need fiat.

Governments are powerless in trying to stop any activity which is profitable.   As fast as they lock someone up another will continue the task.   This cat is out of the bag and it's not going back in.


If bitcoin activity takes on higher risk that will only mean the rewards will be higher.   Drugs, firearms, gold, software, oil, fiat cash, try to make the movement of any of them illegal and you guarantee higher demand and profit until the markets reaches a new equilibrium.

technically, they can't control. That is the best part. =)

This looks like a public, self-criticism, which is what China wants to hear, that they are in control, even if technically they are not. Smart move, Smart move

I also see that it will just be a temporary dent in the market if the Chinese government really bans bitcoin mining. But rest assured that the market will recovered once again if such scenario's happen. Other countries would also take over the mining business like Japan. They would invest millions of dollars for sure, because they are the only country that legalizes it so far. Its also good to see the mining monopoly of the Chinese move to another country or nation. They have so far dominated it, and it would be really nice it another country in the Middle East and one in Asia will fill the void that the China would have left.

Bitcoin is gonna be in trouble if crazy news like a mining ban happens

Haha, very eloquently put by mr Yang, such is Chinas dominance in bitcoin mining that there would be such a huge shock to the bitcoin economy if this happened 

When you have such an authoritative over you it is almost impossible to make long term plans that is what at the end makes those countries fall, then they begin to nationalize business, not realizing that these measures only hasten their own demise eventually no foreign investment comes to their countries and that is when they get paranoid that the world is out to get them, when they are the ones destroying their countries.

lol I agree, the rigs will be on sale offshore or it will just become a bunch of trash, I'm here ready to buy all those rigs for my mining purpose and it's good for the stability of blockchain network.
how many years china has the dominance in this field and now it will be gone soon.

Absolutely no way that China will ban mining.

As you point out, mining is not an effective way to move capital abroad (to subvert China’s capital controls), because for every $1 invested in mining, more many more dollars in value are returned which extracts value from abroad. Mining is net inflow of capital to China.

China mainly wanted to shut down rampant speculation and the ability for people to convert Yuan to BTC easily and take the capital out of China. ICOs were siphoning capital out of China and into the pockets of scammers. The elite in every country will not allow a bunch of script kiddies to take $billions of the domestic economies those elite control.

After China’s election in October, some are speculating that China will reinstate BTC exchanges with more stringent regulations on KYC, AML, and limits on volume for different levels of KYC compliance per user. The BTC trading ban was probably a “saving face” political show of force before the upcoming Communist Party congress. It’s to show the party hasn’t lost control (remember in Asia saving face is critical, even if the reality is different).

China will not let ICOs to come back, except in some registered form similar to what Overstock/TZero is proposing, which has the downsides documented at that link. The get-rich-quick, free-for-all, pumpy dumpy ICO era is ending. So this question is will this drag proof-of-work issued coins down also? PoW-issued are not securities, but the ICO craze has driven a lot of money into our ecosystem and especially by China last winter 2016 when markets often go on holiday in West.

I’m expecting BTC to rebound because everyone is so pessimistic. However, it appears that Australia, South Korea and others are banning ICOs also, so perhaps we’ve already topped out (see linked chart)? Yet looking at the price action since South Korea announced an intention to ban ICOs yesterday, appears the markets are shrugging it off, at least Bitcoin. If we have another move out of alts into BTC, that will then signal another move up for alts since they tend to lag BTC on the way up. Someone has said volume has been weak on this rise (I did not confirm it), so is this caution that will return to FOMO fever or are we in a deadcat bounce?

Seems the ICOs such as NEO are getting very strong recoveries, so perhaps the FOMO market is going to stick out their middle finger to the regulators and dare them to actually delist tokens in many major nations. Perhaps the party won’t be over until the fat lady sings?

Also I still ponder if we have the possibility of a massive theft of SegWit transactions event on the horizon with LTC and BCH being the potential benefactors. This theory says BTCSegWit will collapse in price and then BCH, LTC and Satoshi’s original BTC protocol will rise up. This would be massive chaos in addition to the ICO bans coming and the SegWit2X split.

Frankly this is very difficult to analyse but it appears very chaotic and very risky. Yet that is probably the time to buy. Has maximum fear of an ICO implosion already been priced in? Perhaps we need the SEC and Australia and others take enforcement actions against ICOs before we see the worst of the selloff? Or those enforcement actions could come gradually and the market transitions and shrugs it off?

Can any one offer some sober and well reason points that don’t just attack me for fringe viewpoints when in fact I have routinely ended up being proven correct over time. Remember when I was shouting to buy LTC at 0.006 BTC (and less than $10) and then LTC did exactly what I said going to $50, correcting, then going to $75+.

Charting seems to indicate that LTC and BCH could triple, but we could have significant declines interim. Increasing volatility seems to be the only constant factor.

Thoughts? (please everyone be respectful of each other, this is not a boxing ring)


Martin Armstrong is stating (to paid subscribers) that either DJIA solidifies above 21000, else we could have a SLINGSHOT correction, that initiates a blastoff to new ATHs above 27000+. Either way, the 27000+ level will be breached over the next year or two. I agree crypto has a related pattern, that we either bottom here above $3000, else we could see a SLINGSHOT correction much lower, but in either case crypto is headed much higher over the next year or two. However, the composition of which tokens gain and lose could change significantly with the banning (forced delisting on exchanges) of unregistered ICO issued tokens underway already in several nations and the uncertainty over which fork of BTC will win.

So MA is thinking maybe a peaking on DJIA at 22463 and decline in the week Oct. 2 or Oct. 16. If crypto is macroeconomically correlated (something about risk assets?), so perhaps BTC is going to reassault $5100 before a drawnout correction?

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LTCBTC appears to me to be in a bullish triangle (wedge) preparing for a massive breakout to the upside over next months. 0.01 is the resistance of the triangle, which has been rock solid. We’d need to have seen lower lows on LTCBTC in order to be in a bearish mode, but we haven’t. Our minimum upside was 0.03 BTC which has not been achieved yet.

Also thus far this correction is less severe than the 2013/4 crash. That Mt.Gox driven flash crash caused BTCUSD to decline more than 60% and LTCUSD more than 80%. So far on this correction, BTCUSD only declined 40% and LTCUSD only 60%. So possibly we might have another leg up still or at least rising back to a double-top.

If we still have to see the original predictions of $1500 and $150 for LTC and BCH, then that would put BTC topping out at 0.03 - 0.05 w.r.t. to LTC so BTC reaching no higher than ~$5000. Perhaps BTC will double-top in the $5100s which was my original top price.

BCHUSD and BCHBTC have a similar bullish wedge pattern as LTCBTC (whereas LTCUSD has a similar blowoff topping pattern as BTC). This indicates a possibility that BTC and LTC are moving towards their tops, and then BCH will lag and rise magnificiently. Which coincides with the fanatical theory about BTCSegWit dying a fiery death. If BCH went to $1500 while BTC declined to $3000, that would a 5X gain in BCHBTC.

Shipping will happen as it does in any other business. If there is demand for it, the cost of shipping will be paid. Bitmain ships miners all over the world currently. You think it's difficult for Chinese companies to export products?

Anyway, there were rumors circulating that smaller miners were offloading their equipment, but the situation has calmed down. Jihan Wu seems unconcerned, and Bitmain is still offering miners for USD as well as various cryptocurrencies. They even just added some new crypto payment methods like BCH. Charlie Lee says the rumors about banning mining are BS.

But how they gonna send those huge machines outside china, shipping cost will be really high but if they do so than bitcoin mining will be more decentralized and market will be quite stable.

Right now china owns larger portion of mining, which country can still be suitable for mining considering low cost electricity and crypto friendly government? 

I like this prospect. I'm happy to buy their cheap equipment. But I think that this will not happen. It seems to me that this is fake news to cause a panic and buy up cheap bitcoins. Even if we assume that China will ban the production of the Chinese take out this equipment to Russia. They have long been hosted in the far East.

I hope that they start to sell the mining rigs cheap before the baning. That way people could start mining in other countries before the ban.

Looks like there is still panic and uncertainty among Chinese traders and miners which suggest that we might hit another round of dump really soon. When government will announce official ban on crypto mining than all china based mining farm will shut down with huge loss and they might start to sell their mining rigs for really cheap prices and they might also dump all bitcoin they have just after the official announcement.

I am still expecting a huge dump before all this uncertainty settles down. 

Personally speaking, I don't care that much right now if eventually the Chinese government will eventually stopped all the Bitcoin mining happening within its jurisdiction. I am sure that if in case this will come true then new miners from other countries would be taking over the vacuum. Now, this also means that there is a big possibility that many miners based in China are already thinking of taking their business somewhere else as they can not be sure if they will be allowed to do the business in the coming weeks and months.

Kicking mining out of China can actually be good for the whole Bitcoin community as this can mean that the Chinese influence can be watered down so we can slowly get away from some sort of an imbalance in the Bitcoin decision making process. Moscow is right now opening its door for more miners and I am sure that there would be a resurgence interest especially by next year when the value of Bitcoin is expected to astronomically rise.

Mining is the roots of the Bitcoin economy. China is one of the largest world superpowers, with a super majority of the global hash rate under its jurisdiction. The PBOC rumors in 2013 preceded a 2-year bear market for Bitcoin. The price fell 90%.

Such a disruption to the mining economy has never been seen before. There are emergency hard forks coded in case of such drops in hash rate because the Bitcoin protocol is so badly-equipped to handle them. So, no, hash rate is not merely "reorganized." That only works where hash rate is relatively non-volatile.

Assuming that price will "quickly recover" is naive and indicative of someone who didn't live through the 2014-2015 bear market from the top.

We = Chinese miners.

We are not chinese miners, so we dont care. If the price crashes, then so be it, it will quickly recover as other parts of the world enter the mining game to get advantage of the decrease of difficulty. Bitcoin self regulates, remember that. You get rid of the hashrate in Part A, it becomes twice as profitable for Part B to start mining. It only re-organizes hashrate. At the end of the day the only ones losing are the stupid Chinese government and their poor citizens unlucky enough to be trapped on that shithole.