in this case the drop was because of a lot of FUD that caused a lot of panic from a possible split. then when price reached the bottom and also when the signalling for the soft fork started, the price recovered.
my expectation is that as the signalling grows and support becomes stronger the price will also keep rising. and as the soft fork locks in with a huge support the price will rise up a lot and will do it fast.
this will happen before July 31st and has already started the first step.
Well your guess is accurate but buying bitcoin among 1 august (1-2 days before or after it) is very riskful investment. If I were you, I would wait until the market calm down.
Waiting for normal is better.