Bitcoin is the most popular among the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is now known by people all over the world. Bitcoin is slowly gaining ground among people all over the world. We will be wrong to compare it with other coin trading. Because I know, investing in Bitcoin is completely safe. But to invest in Bitcoin you have to wait a long time to get profit after investing. So far I have never faced any loss by investing in Bitcoin and hope not in the future. To me Bitcoin is very popular and I believe in Bitcoin that's why I invest in Bitcoin most of the time.
Exactly that what am talking about investing in bitcoin is stress free compare to others coin, bitcoin is truly a beauty bitcoin could be on its lowest but just in a short period of time boom!!! Is already at the top
beating it's recent prices. While some coin may dip and would take them years to bounce back while some may even end up not able to bounce bank from the dip. Those days my confidence in investment where pretty low due to the poor knowledge I have about it. Now bitcoin has help in boosting my confidence.😌 That why in bitcoin you don't only invest your funds in it you got to invest your time In it also.
Both of you are talking as if bitcoin is guaranteed.. and sure you may end up being right about bitcoin going up and being the best of investments, but still your way of talking seems both strange and dangerous.. even though surely people do get excited in those kind of ways about bitcoin..but still it seems misleading and maybe not evven healthy to be thinking or talking about bitcoin as if it were guaranteed.
I think I know what they're trying to say and comparing bitcoin with other altcoins then bitcoin will surpass other altcoins, although the informations we get about bitcoin sounds too exciting and I can testify to that cause the first time I heard about bitcoin was during the bull market and people just keep talking about bitcoin but I never listened, we still hear same hype about altcoins but it still doesn't guarantee any profit, have heard a lot of people hyping altcoins and after the hype people end up with regret, like what people will say bitcoin is the best no doubt but if failure to invest properly then there's no profit, just like people who use huge sum of amount to buy without understanding the market first sounds funny, after all this they'll sell without any profit cause they can't wait for another ATH. What I'm trying to say bitcoin also has risk mostly for newly investors but learning can always be of help, I don't think anyone should leave bitcoin and focus on altcoins cause both coins can't even compete so it's best to invest properly with bitcoin.
I don't know about trying to make comparisons with bitcoin versus shitcoins, since it seems that we should get some ideas for what bitcoin is, and then we can better understand that almost every shitcoin is either copying bitcoin or it is not really adding anything of new value.
So how much time do we want to spend trying to study shitcoins or to get involved in them, even though there could be some shitcoins that outperform bitcoin for extended periods of time, yet that still might not be enough of a reason to invest into them without having some kind of in and out strategy to them, yet even longer shitcoin outperformance of bitcoin might end up causing us to have to pay attention to whether it is adding any value or not... .. so it is up to each of us regarding if we are going to let ourselves get distracted into shitcoins..and maybe we are more inclined to get distracted into them if we either are not confidence in what we believe bitcoin to be.
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.... cause someone who has built enough stash would prefer an uptrend market and would most likely prefer DCA method over lump summing or dip buys sunce he is looking mostly at maintaining his stash to be around a certain level and would mostly likely not support aggressive buying cause he would be considering different senerios and outcomes to be best for him.
I usually consider that a person who has accumulated a lot of BTC might start to slow down a bit on his DCA and would more likely start to favor buying on the dip, but surely it is relative. If a person is trying to reach fuck you status (which is traditionally consider to be between 20-30 years of salary/expenses saved/invested), and he has ONLY saved up/invested less than 1 year of annual salary/expenses, he may still be fairly aggressively inclined towards DCA; however, if he is getting to a point of having 3-5 years of salary/expenses saved/invested, then he might start becoming more strategic, and if he is getting into the neighborhood of 8-10 years of salary/investment saved/invested, he might change his strategies even more. Part of the reasons for the changes in the strategies is that any new contribution that he makes into his investment/savings is likely not adding as much value as is the price appreciation or depreciation of his investment.
Of course, for anyone who has not quite reached the stage of fuck you status still might want to engage in ongoing DCA, but another issue could come from being in an investment for a long time, there can be senses of the cycles, and the fact that you already hold a large amount of that asset relative to your other investments may cause you to want to diversify too.. so I cannot really say which kinds of balances that any particular person might have to weigh in terms of figuring out when to change some of his various emphasis.
Previously I had considered that ONLY getting to fuck you status would be the goal to bounce out of a DCA strategy, but part of the problem with that kind of analysis is that maybe a guy might have created an accumulation goal for himself of something like 10% or even 25%, but then if he ends up over investing during times in which the BTC price was relatively low, then he might feel over allocated, and if the BTC price goes up 2x, 3x, 5x, 10x or some other amounts, then he feels even more over allocated, and might become reluctant to invest more into BTC, even though he might still not be close to fuck you status.
Maybe I need an example to try to explain?
Let's say that 10 years ago, a guy had an income of about $20k per year, and over the previous 10 years or more he had created a fairly well-diversified investment portfolio that is around $50k in value, and he considers that his fuck you status is $500k, so he hears about bitcoin, and decides to allocate 10% to bitcoin, but figures it will take him a year to reach his goals, and so once he gets to 10% the BTC price dips, so he ends up allocating 20% rather than 10% (which is $10k invested into bitcoin), and so his average cost per BTC is around $1k (which means he has around 10 BTC), so BTC prices shoot up to $20k (which is 20x) and then correct back down to $4k or so (which is still 4x up for him), and maybe over the next 7 years BTC prices are up and down, and so maybe his traditional investments might have doubled in 10 years from $50k to $100k, but his bitcoin had gone from $10k to $200k (in 2017) and then back down to $40k (in 2018) and then back up to nearly $700k (in 2021) and then corrected back down to $160k in 2022 but then are back to up around $400k right now.
Another thing is that based on various debasement of the money in 2020, he might have concluded that $500k could no be his fuck you status, and he needed to have $1 million as his fuck you status, and so what is the guy going to do during all of this time, and even though I am personally referring to spot price, I consider valuation of your bitcoin based on spot price to be too unreliable, so we have to consider actual valuations of bitcoin based on bottom prices which is the 200-week moving average which has steadily moved up over the past 10 years also, and currently puts BTC values at more than $30k.
So even though on paper the BTC values had been moving all over the place based o spot price the 200-week moving average had been more gradual, and surely maybe the solution would have been to just keep plugging away with DCA rather than worrying about any of the valuations and trying to time the market, and so maybe even with an ongoing continued purchasing of BTC, he might have accumulated another
3-4 BTC over the last 8 years with something like $30 per week of ongoing BTC accumulation.
While another individual too a newbie would favour a different strategy and approach that would be in a kind of ways that would favour him to buy more bitcoin or build his stash more effectively and also considering the time this two set of persons either have left based on their goal and investment duration or are setting. Meaning that these senerios and strategies would continue to change as my investment matures and I reach a certain level of accumulation.
You would need to make those kinds of determinations, and yeah maybe it is not easy to figure out, and maybe the default is just ongoing DCA because if you try to do other things, you might end up screwing up your own investment.
I think that your understanding sounds largely correct, and so you can consider accumulating 1-2 years, and then maybe 4-6 years and maybe even 10 years or more, and so if you project out further your worse, best and medium scenarios are going to change, and they are going to be changing as you go along, so yeah, it would work out pretty good if the BTC price either goes down or does not go up very much while you are accumulating and then mostly goes up later down the road, after you have built some decent stash.
But there could be scenarios that you build and build and then you expect the price to do up but it keeps going down or stays flat or really fails to go up. and then maybe some other bad things happen to bitcoin (and/or even in your life) where you are faced with having to figure out if you have to liquidate some or all of your BTC at a time that is not of your own choosing... so you could attempt to prepare for those kinds of scenarios too.. and how much preparation to make in any scenario should be somewhat proportional to how likely it is to happen, so if there is some 1-5% odds of some kind of Armageddon scenarios playing out, then you probably should not be spending more than 1-5% of psychology or resources to prepare for such a scenario, but you also probably should not be putting zero preparation into such scenarios either... as time goes on we can see that some scenarios become more likely or less likely, so we might have some scenarios that are low odds that end up playing out, and there could be some regionality to the scenarios too. so we should be careful in regards to making sure that we are prepared for various things, including how difficult it can be to be your own bank.
Let's say that you spend 10 years accumulating bitcoin and through that whole time you invest between $10 and $1k per week into bitcoin, and maybe you end up accumulating 1.5 bitcoin in 10 years for an average cost of around $100k per BTC, and perhaps in early 2034, bitcoin prices are bouncing around anywhere between $400k and $600k per BTC, and so maybe you hold 90% of your BTC and you have the other 10% in various 3rd party services... so maybe your BTC are worth somewhere around $800k (in today's dollars), so it would be pretty irresponsible if you were to have your private keys, your back up and your Trezor (or whatever might be the hardware devices that you are using) in your house and it burns down, so as your wealth increases then you likely have to take more and more measures to make sure that you are protecting yourself from worse case scenarios, even if such worse case scenarios exist and you might not have had thought of all of them in the beginning, but they become more important the longer that you are accumulating BTC and presumptively holding your own keys..
As you continue to explain this stuff out I begin to understand you better on this topic of senerios, I never thought that planning out or instances where accident would occur or I lose my assets where things I should consider. Even know I'm thinking of adding my currency value drop rate as part of senerios and I think this is so broad and if used well would yield a better success, just makes you more prepared for anything that could happen.
People do get emotional both on the way up and on the way down, so I am not claiming it is easy.
There are also some very smart folks who end up losing their BTC due to NOT adequately securing them. Earlier today, I heard
a podcast with a guy (Rick Messitt) who had regrets about losing 25 BTC due to a hack, but also he regretted that he had made some mistakes that were a product of his sloppy security.. and his mistakes had to do with not increasing his security practices related to his coins to go along with their increase in value over the years.
Well 4-5 months of investing is not very long, and maybe you might need to just figure out what the right balance is so that you keep buying, especially during dips, and maybe after 3-4 years of investing you might be able to trace back the power of your having had continued to invest through the earlier years, and maybe in 3-4 years we might be going through another bear market, so maybe you might need to consider a cycle and a half of ongoing investing. and then see where you are at in 6 years or so.
Yeah it can be tough in the beginning, but probably you have to find a comfortable size, whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that is comfortable for you, your wife and your situation.
Regarding withdrawing every week, given the various recent fee spikes and the signal that we might have future fee problems, I personally don't consider that to be necessary or prudent to withdraw to a private wallet every week, unless your withdrawal amounts are at least $500 to $1k, and so personally I think that it is better to allow your UTXOs to at least reach a certain level prior to withdrawal.. and that is not merely about current fees, but it is also about future possible fee issues that could come about..
Regarding withdrawals every week, I had pressured him to be aware of fuel prices which had recently risen, so I held them for a while like in December, the balance was still on the exchange for 4 weeks until I finally withdrew the bitcoins and didn't want to keep them for long. A week usually allocates $100 more and that is definitely a liability that we need to transfer to Bitcoin. because this also makes my wife disciplined in investing by considering that all basic needs are met properly. Regardless of whether the target is 3-4 years or even more because our goal is to invest for our little child, this is a kind of inheritance because we have nothing but Bitcoin that we can give him in the future. Hopefully it goes according to plan and there are no obstacles along the way. However for now the most important thing is to ensure a balanced income between investments and basic daily needs.
We just try our best and make the best plans possible, for the future no one knows, the important thing is that as long as we can still buy and hold, that is more than enough.
Of course with the transaction fees, there are needs to consider the present, but also the future, and so none of us should be engaging in practices in which it might not be very economical to spend coins that we own, which is one of the advantages of keeping our UTXOs relatively large, such as $500 or more. Of course, if we involuntarily get stuck with some smaller value UTXOs there might not be anything that we can really do about it, except maybe to monitor times in which it is more economical to spend from those UTXOs, and even some folks strive to consolidate their UTXOs during times that the fees are cheaper, relatively speaking, and we might not know what the fees are going to do in the future, and some folks have made some claims about the problematic nature of having small UTXOs, similar to what I have been saying (and this has become more clearly showing itself as a problem since November or so and especially since we have been spending nearly the whole time with the mempool not clearing out.... rare times to be able to send transactions for less than 30 sats per vbyte in the past 3 months and even times of inabilities to send for less than 90 sats per vbyte...and if you are in a rush, there may even be more difficulties in terms of needing to send with a higher fee to make sure it goes through.
Regarding the kid, it is hard to know, because sometimes you want kids to be having to have incentives to build their own income, but there can be times in which having funds can be helpful to provide opportunities that would not otherwise be available, which also will come down to Not being tempted to be dipping into coins that you accumulate with the passage of time... which maybe even if the kid is growing and your investment is growing, there could be times where you might see that it is a good way to supplement your own income in the future too, which will indirectly benefit the kid if s/he is still living with you, and so I suppose that the time that assistance might be most useful would be when the kid might be transitioning away from home or maybe if there might be career or education opportunties that come but that there are extra expenses that you would not be able to cover, except perhaps because your bitcoin investment ended up performing better than any of your other investments, which surely is not guaranteed, but many of us likely see that it has quite a bit of hope built within its structure.
Hi all,
Do you think with the ETF's in play, and the buying and selling thats going on OTC we should all consider more precisely when we do our DCA buy. Should we setting our DCA after US market close on a week day or even off a weekday and onto a weekend day?
Regards,
Greyhats
I personally don't like automatic DCA's, and I am not even aware of automatic DCAs that could be set by the hour.
And, if you are trying to time manual DCAs, how are you going to know?
Let's say that every week you are buying $100, maybe you could set a limited buy order price for yourself to buy that is somewhat below the week's entry price? You could even preset that order, and leave it for 5 or 6 days of the week, and if the buy order(s) does not execute then just buy at whatever is the price on day 7, so the next week you will get your new authorization for an additional $100 or whatever is the amount.. and don't get me wrong, you could have several orders that are at something like $25 at each of the points such as 3% 5% 8% and even 12% or higher dip amounts below the price at the start of the week...and whether you are going to be advantaged by such a system might not be easy to measure, but it might be enough of an advantage that ends up allowing you to accumulate 8.5 BTC rather than 8 BTC in the next 10 years, by 2034.
A lot of those who bought that type might be lured by the news and hype of the bull run of 2021. Most of those people joined Bitcoin because they heard it was making people rich, so they rushed and bought hoping to sell and make money quickly. When the price reach the peak around $69,000 and started retracing, some were advised to hold more that it would retrace. It kept dropping and taking longer time and the assurance of retracement became ineffective, so most of them sold at loss and left. It may not be all of them that sold but it is very rare to see those who started their Bitcoin buying around that time that is still holding till date.
Starting to invest in Bitcoin is something one should have clear intentions and plan for before starting to avoid running into troubles. It is good that a lot of ideas have already been discussed here, those who are still not clear about certain things should just do little reading.
Through this I came to know what Bitcoin long term investment is and how DCA benefits you in the long run. If you think of inveting in Bitcoin at one price and looking for quick return then there are not much chances of success.
Bitcoin will be a success if you are looking to invest over a longer period of time. Even Lump Sum investment is good if you are willing to invest for next 4 to 5 years. Both DCA and LUMP SUM are good options provided you can wait.
Here is my calculation from previous post that show comparison of DCA vs Lump sum.
I just have a small working on DCA vs LUM SUM Profit.
DCA:If you invest 100 dollars per week into bitcoin starting from Dec 27, 2019 to Dec 27, 2023. Then your total investment is 20900$ in Bitcoin and ROI after 4 years will be +119% or your total investment goes up to 24870$
LUMP SUM investment and HODL:If you invest total 20900$ in Bitcoin on Dec 27, 2019 and HODL for 4 years then today your ROI will be +505% or investment goes up to 105690$.
https://dcacryptocalculator.com/Likewise if you go to
https://dcacryptocalculator.com/ and play with figures then you will notice that Lum sum investment also gives good result if you are willing to HODL for longer duration.
That is bullshit.
Yeah sure you can strategically pick almost any time that is 4 years or more in the past in which the BTC price is quite a bit lower than the current price or even lower than the average BTC prices over the last 4-5 years and then say what if I would have had lump sum invested into BTC at that time... yeah, but you did not have $20k to invest at that time and even if you did.. you wouldn't have been ready, willing and able to invest it into BTC in one fell swoop like a gambler, and the ONLY way you were able to invest $20k is because you took out $100 per week from your cashflow, otherwise you would not have had been able to lump sum in a quantity that is even close to that absent taking out a loan, and who is suggesting to be taking those kinds of loans.. absent some great terms... which you have to account for the interest rate of such a loan too... .
Don't get me wrong. I don't have anything against lump summing, but if you lump sum $20k and you also DCA $100 per week, you would have even been better off...or if you lump sum half (because that is all that you could conjure up) and then you DCA the other half of either $50 or $100 per week, then you would be better off to supplement your lump sum with DCA.
Most regular people (normies) have limited abilities to lump sum, and even if they were to have had $21k available to them in December 2019, maybe they should have had started out by allocating $7k to lump summing (buying right away), $7k towards buying on dips and the other $7k to plug into their regular cashflow whether they spread out the investment of that remaining $7k over 6 months or 12 months might have some discretion in terms of figuring out their own cashflow situation.
Fuck lump sum as a stand alone strategy and comparing it to DCA from a kind of retrospective fantasylandia perspective that does not apply to an overwhelming majority of normies to suddenly come up with $21k that they might have ONLY barely been able to come up because they struggled to take it from their weekly cashflow for 4 years straight.
Hi all,
Do you think with the ETF's in play, and the buying and selling thats going on OTC we should all consider more precisely when we do our DCA buy. Should we setting our DCA after US market close on a week day or even off a weekday and onto a weekend day?
Regards,
Greyhats
The US market does not affects your DCA. Unless you do not understand fully what they mean by DCA. It is dollar cost average. You buy based on the percentage you set from your income without having to bother what may affect the market or not. This means that the only time your DCA can shift is when your income get higher or lower . For instance if your are dcaing 40% of your income monthly and your salary is $100 which is equivalent to $40.. So if there is an increase in your monthly income, let me say from your initial $100 to $200. Your dca value would now be $80 monthly. Same thing goes to a scenario where there is a decrease in your income, the dca price would be lesser based on the percentage you set for it.
I hope you understand now. The ETF, buy and sell in the US markets cannot affect your investment approach if dca is your strategy. The only persons that may experience some challenges are trading. Remember, majority of rhose who dca are holding their investment for long. They have the mindset that the value will be significant in the near future. However it is your choice to choose if you want to hold for decades, yearly or bi- yearly.
From my reading, you, Agbamoni, seem to be misunderstanding Greyhats' question in regards to his wanting to try to time his DCA rather than intending to change the amount of his DCA.
Hi all,
Do you think with the ETF's in play, and the buying and selling thats going on OTC we should all consider more precisely when we do our DCA buy. Should we setting our DCA after US market close on a week day or even off a weekday and onto a weekend day?
Regards,
Greyhats
Actually DCA has nothing to do with those stuff you listed above because irrespective of how we feel is very good to buy when the price is dip shouldn't give us the mindset that DCA strategy is by only buying dip, so perhaps one of the reasons why DCA strategy is one of the best strategy is because it doesn't being influenced by any news or price increase of Bitcoin but however the only difference could only be that the amount of Bitcoin accumulated when the price was a bit lower and the amount accumulated when the price was a bit higher, let's take for example if you bought Bitcoin when the price was $40k with $100 Weekly DCA method you will realize that the amount of Bitcoin accumulated using your $100 weekly DCA will totally be different from the amount of Bitcoin you will accumulate using your $100 weekly when the price of Bitcoin will be $46k, so that's just the only difference but however the price of Bitcoin shouldn't influence our DCA strategy because DCA involves slowly accumulation and doesn't depend on Bitcoin price.
That is a good clarification. So yes, Greyhats is trying to combine DCA and buying on the dips, and a more strict DCA strategy would not really account for that.. yet practically speaking if there were a strategic time in which the BTC price always were to dip, then it may well give a slight edge over randomly choosing buy times or even if you time your DCA buys at the top of the weekly pattern (if there were such a pattern) versus timing your buy at the bottom of the pattern (if there were such a pattern).
