I actually have a serious point to make. I only discovered bitcoin three months ago, but I have spent many hours since reading a huge amount on the subject. I've done my very best to look at things objectively, and have listened to arguments from both sides. I have arrived at the conclusion that cryptocurrencies will, with absolute certainty, play a huge role in all our futures. It may not be with bitcoin- but it's looking increasingly likely that it will be with the crazy network effects, huge existing mining pool, and cryptocurrency 2.0 apps being built on top of it (counterparty for example).
Given the above, a bitcoin market cap of above $1trn is not only not unlikely, it seems to me that it's almost inevitable. So I have invested 75% of my life savings into it, and intend to hold it for years without spending a single satoshi. BUT WHY ISN'T EVERYONE ELSE DOING THE SAME!? Am I missing something? I can't help but think that I must be- the notion that I am right, and almost everyone else is wrong seems too good to be true.
I'm aware of the various cognitive biases which may be affecting my judgement, and have been careful not to forget the idea that 'The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it.' Yet even considering all these things, I still arrive at the inescapable conclusion that bitcoin is headed to very, very green pastures.
So I suppose the point of this post is to ask- am I missing something? Have I underestimated the chances of something going severely wrong, such as a major code fail? Could crypto simply 'fall out of fashion' and everyone goes back to fiat?
We are very similar. I knew about bitcoin a long time ago, since the first crash from $30. But I knew of it as fake money for illegal uses, and didn't care about it until this year. It's funny, really. I would've never got into bitcoin had I not come to China. With the firewall here, I couldn't really do much, so I went to find new ways for entertainment; I stumbled across an article I saved 5 years ago by fred wilson, and proceeded to read his blog. I wondered why a legit and reputable VC like him was so interested in this illegal fake money, so I started looking more and more into it. Now I'm pretty much convinced that it will succeed.
Then I ended up with the same questions as you. How come people aren't making big bets in this? Don't they want a chance at complete financial freedom? And I realized that they don't. Most people are content with their life now, even if they don't realize it. They think getting rich or whatever is just a dream and impossible, and stuff like that. And with their mindset, they'll never succeed. Even if bitcoin fails, if we believe we can succeed and really look for ways to do it, I'm sure it'll happen eventually. But when you give up beforehand, you've already lost the battle.