Topic: Bye Bye Bear Market :) - page 10. (Read 1743 times)
I can't say that bear market is done since it's just getting started to rise after a long bearish months though the bull trap is still in my mind after all. I'd like to be cautious as possible if I don't see a reliable strong support that the bottom is done already since I kinda feel like it's still waiting to dump after pumping. Maybe let's just wait a little longer to see if it's really moving up and it's finally a good bye to the bear market.
I dont disagree but the retest is where I have more confidence. The low prices more then the high prices is where I find accuracy is best given for prediction and the backbone to trends. We do have weekly, 50 and I hope soon 200 day averages moving upwards. When all that is true is best to be biased to the upside but I wont assume just yet, sincere optimism seems totally correct but I'll wait this month out and some.
So breaking this downtrend line is good, but once we have also pulled back yet kept this former regular negative as the very lowest price then I find we are very likely with positive bias.
It is true that we could have a "confirmation" of sorts to make sure it is start of a bull run, or at least end of bear market. But that doesn't mean that we can't be finding anything that would be closer to reality, and I believe that we should be finding something that would be a bit risky, and at the very least something that would be too late if we wait for that confirmation.So breaking this downtrend line is good, but once we have also pulled back yet kept this former regular negative as the very lowest price then I find we are very likely with positive bias.
I think it's a lot better if we end up with having some sort of better results in the long run, then it would be better if we get involved now, if we wait for that confirmation and it goes up, we would be too late and making profit is still possible but it will be less profit, I already bought at lower prices so I am fine, but I suggest not being even later than now.
Having Bitcoin continuesly moving up with such momentum and Breaking two structures especially the FTX collapse, is something that caught my attention and makes me start to believing that the Bottom is in already at $15k,
not only that, Another two things which is corresponding with this move is the fact that previous Bear/Bull market cycles records shows that Bear market ended in the 12th month , while the Bull market started on the 13th month after ATH, which means that in previous cycles Bitcoin only spent 1 year in the Bear market and 3 years in Bull market.
Now we are currently in the 13 month of Bitcoin down trend, seems history is trying to repeat itself.
not only that, Another two things which is corresponding with this move is the fact that previous Bear/Bull market cycles records shows that Bear market ended in the 12th month , while the Bull market started on the 13th month after ATH, which means that in previous cycles Bitcoin only spent 1 year in the Bear market and 3 years in Bull market.
Now we are currently in the 13 month of Bitcoin down trend, seems history is trying to repeat itself.
Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:
1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.
Bottom maybe in but for every break of structure you need to anticipate a pullback and from what I can see, price could comeback to anywhere around the $19k region to mitigate open orders and then nothing will be left at the bottom and price will moon upwards.1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.
It doesn’t look like it broke either. The trend line is not broken yet and the moving averages just started to cross. So it’s a little pre mature to say this. However given how small the dips have been I am starting to think this will rally into the $25K at least before it pulls back.
My thoughts exactly, price is yet to break the trend line, but looking at the size of those bullish candles.. Markets keep showing that they do have upward momentum to break the trend line,but after this happens a pullback is certainly on the cards!
Maybe it's the end of the bear market in some sense, but it's not the start of the bull market. There's still more than 1 year till next halvening. The growth, if it starts now, will still be slow, I don't expect the price reaching the previous top in this year. Even 40k sounds in this year sounds pretty ambitious, considering that the price can drop anytime for no good reason or if there's some unforeseen negative event.
Cautious optimism is the name of the game for now, and feels like I am not alone judging from responses. I feel almost guilty now waking up the past week and expecting sub 20k levels, as if we are just so used now to false dawns we feel it must not yet be over until there is real pain (not to say it doesn't hurt yet, just I thought we would be on our knees first).
A year also, if nothing else, feels too short, no?
A year also, if nothing else, feels too short, no?
Oh yeah, we need to be very careful as well, although we see the price jumping to $23k, very early to judge if the bottom is in already. On the other hand, me waking up seeing the price moving over $20k makes me nervous, Lol, because I'm thinking that the waking up next day, the price might be different.
But it seems that the bulls has taken control of the market, and again, waking early in my timezone to witnessed again $23k++ still baffles me as to what is the real reason for this increase at the start of the year.
Cautious optimism is the name of the game for now, and feels like I am not alone judging from responses. I feel almost guilty now waking up the past week and expecting sub 20k levels, as if we are just so used now to false dawns we feel it must not yet be over until there is real pain (not to say it doesn't hurt yet, just I thought we would be on our knees first).
A year also, if nothing else, feels too short, no?
A year also, if nothing else, feels too short, no?
It is evident that something is happening, but regardless of the data, I am of the opinion that the bear market cannot be completely written off. I think it's just a recovery that is still on shaky legs, until we get back to pre-crash levels caused by that South Korean scammer. This would mean that the price should reach at least $30k, and somehow it doesn't seem to me that this can happen soon.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.
I hope you're right (obviously), but I still don't feel like we are 100% safe. The price looks good, however, I'd wait for a correction (or at least plateau) and then the next pump; then I'd also be convinced we're good (I tend to be "slow" in this, but don't worry about me).
On the other hand, I was expecting the bear market end in Q4 2022 and, based on these new charts, it has basically ended in 2 of January 2023. So, based on my original math, you indeed may be right on this.
PS. Thanks for the new charts, I've been awaiting for them
What I know is that indicators can fail, but long term sentiment has not been failing yet, the price of bitcoin is still low, for anyone that has money he is not using for long time, he can buy bitcoin, the price may reduce but we are still going above $50000. Going above $50000 may not be this time, it can be in this year or next year.
I use weekly BB and RSI indicator, what I predicted before is that bitcoin would increase above $23000 which would be a resistant price, but getting to $25000 is possible because there can be more overbought market, the upper band has been attained now but the market can be bullish a bit more. But because of the weekly BB overbought market, bitcoin price may drag around this price, finding it difficult to go higher for now. But I am still expecting above $30000 this year though.
I use weekly BB and RSI indicator, what I predicted before is that bitcoin would increase above $23000 which would be a resistant price, but getting to $25000 is possible because there can be more overbought market, the upper band has been attained now but the market can be bullish a bit more. But because of the weekly BB overbought market, bitcoin price may drag around this price, finding it difficult to go higher for now. But I am still expecting above $30000 this year though.
It doesn’t look like it broke either. The trend line is not broken yet and the moving averages just started to cross. So it’s a little pre mature to say this. However given how small the dips have been I am starting to think this will rally into the $25K at least before it pulls back.
One indicator of a Bitcoin bull market is when you want to buy the dip but can’t. That usually means it’s a very strong bull market. And the best way to play it is get in early and keep holding without selling too early. Hence if you got a long going keep holding and don’t sell yet.
One indicator of a Bitcoin bull market is when you want to buy the dip but can’t. That usually means it’s a very strong bull market. And the best way to play it is get in early and keep holding without selling too early. Hence if you got a long going keep holding and don’t sell yet.
I dont disagree but the retest is where I have more confidence. The low prices more then the high prices is where I find accuracy is best given for prediction and the backbone to trends. We do have weekly, 50 and I hope soon 200 day averages moving upwards. When all that is true is best to be biased to the upside but I wont assume just yet, sincere optimism seems totally correct but I'll wait this month out and some.
So breaking this downtrend line is good, but once we have also pulled back yet kept this former regular negative as the very lowest price then I find we are very likely with positive bias.
So breaking this downtrend line is good, but once we have also pulled back yet kept this former regular negative as the very lowest price then I find we are very likely with positive bias.
Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:
1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.
1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.
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