Deposits will soon be removed from the Chinese exchanges, users will have some time to withdraw their funds, and this story will be behind us. Until ALL the Chinese exchanges stop doing business, this will continue to drag on. Can't blame them for trying what they can to continue on, but at some point enough is enough. They aren't allowed to accept RMB (CNY), and there is no financial innovation they can use to avoid it.
The future for China is a decentralized exchange which matches buyers/sellers and is hosted off-shore. The exchange will not touch fiat currency, only BTC. The BTC will be held in escrow as one party sends money to the other. When both parties agree that the Alipay / bank transfer has been received by the BTC seller, the BTC will be released to the buyer's address which they provided before-hand.
This business model is effectively impossible for China to regulate and will eventually lead to a full-out ban on Bitcoin. However, such a ban will be very difficult to enforce.
^^ Your model is probably the only solution left for Chinese exchanges. a localbitcoins-like exchange.
Again, there's a few problems with the original exchange model (HK-hosted, transfer to HK)
1. Max limit of $50K transfer to HK exchanges yearly per citizen
2. Immediate 4% loss on any order/transfer between mainland / offshore (CNY conversion) (this is enormous!)
Therefore it will be very tricky for the exchanges to bypass #2, unless they somehow find a way to do Escrow between citizens in mainland. And if they do find a solution, the workaround will prob. be banned again.
Even with this solution, capital input with greatly be reduced (localbitcoins), as they just trade BTC between themselves. There's no new fresh money entering the market. To withdraw, you must find a buyer. To buy, you lose 4% off the bat
It's a really fucked up situation up there
After they all dump, we'll probably finally decouple from Huobi and return to pre-China bubble price (with the addition of new western infrastructure)
I think you've misinterpreted the business model for a decentralized Chinese exchange. China has much more advanced Person-to-Person payment methods than the Western world. People can make instant, irreversible transfers through Alipay for a few cents, and all you need to pay money to another person is their Alipay number.
This "exchange" does not touch the fiat currency. It is sent directly from buyer to seller. The exchange simply matches buyers and sellers, and once a deal has been arranged they hold the BTC in escrow. The BTC could be uploaded beforehand to save time, and be held on accounts, but this is not essential.
When the exchange confirms that the BTC is in escrow, they provide the buyer with the seller's Alipay number. The buyer now sends the money via Alipay to the seller. Ideally, the buyer/seller are acting in good faith. Once seller has received the money, the seller confirms this and the BTC is released to the buyer.
The exchange will be responsible for dispute resolution and will take a fee from the BTC being held. The exchange will NOT be hosted in China, and therefore will not be breaking any laws. It can be hosted in Australia for all it matters. Just can't be on Chinese soil, since it would be shut down.
The "exchange" should record successful transactions and give +1 feedback for each successful transaction done by a buyer/seller. Conversely, they should give -1 point for any party which enters a transaction and does not fulfill their end of the deal. Fraudulent usage of the dispute system should result in a "Trade with caution" status on a user's profile. Prevent users from signing up with the same Alipay number on multiple accounts.