Topic: call an end to the rally - page 2. (Read 12387 times)

Yeah it's like forecasting rain... keep on saying it long enough and even in the Sahara you'll eventually be correct. As the saying goes - even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Will it go over 50 bucks before the end of the year without going down past 50?

Third time's a charm

because they're so cheap?

"call an end to the rally" turned out to be premature... again...

ok, turned into a blow-off top.  it's rare but happens...sell your bitcoins while you can, you won't see these prices again for many many months.

I don't think this will happen soon without some serious adverse events (like government intervention or some other kind of attack on the system) - which doesn't mean that I find it unlikely to happen.

almost $18, I'm crying on the inside ;(

I still maintain that we'll see parity again, though, or something close to it.  This is a speculative market, and has gone through multi-month bear phases before. 

I think the price surge is far from over in the mid-term, provided that BTC really gets established as some kind of currency (which implies that a large amount goods are available for sale in BTC).

In the best case the BTC market capitalization could reach a buying-power equivalent to the traditional currencies used today.

Of course, this is far from certain and at the moment a lot of speculation is going on with many new people (like me) entering BTC. So today's value of BTC is not solely based on fundamentals (e.g. electricity costs), but to a large amount on future expectations.

When the difficulty looked like it was going to dip back below 400,000 over the weekend, after peaking at 500,000, I started feeling bearish on the price.

Now it looks like the difficulty might be recovering, and could head towards 600,000.  That, plus all the media, has me leaning bullish again.

At 600,000, a drop to $6 would put us at the historic low of around 1:1.  I don't see that happening, with the explosion of media attention and trade volume.

On the other hand, if the price goes over $10 the pop to $18 is almost certain (an almost flat ask depth beyond $10).  Even at $18 the ratio would still only be 3:1, which was just reached during the first rally to $8.

By a ratio analysis, $18 in the next week or two is in the cards.

Yep, waaay before Bitcoin hits $1.00 USD I'll be buying them up. Notwithstanding the investment value to myself, there are humanitarian reasons for keeping value in BTC.

I think so too

Ive asked S3052 and others to explain *why* they think an entirely new form of currency that offers *many* advantages over any of the existing forms of value trading systems, and is *just starting* to pick up steam (as far as mainstream awareness goes) would possibly follow the old patterns of "normal" stocks of companies and commodities.

Did the adoption of the Internet and Broadband follow "Elliot Waves" ?
Did anyone talk about "Bear and Bull" markets with regard to BitTorrent's uptake ?
Were Mobile Phones considered a "Bubble that will burst ?"
Did the takeover of the Automobile follow "The Markets *Rules* ?"

Digital Cameras annihilated the 100+ year old film/development industry within a decade, CCD's and Portable mass storage combined to totally change the way we took and stored images almost overnight (in cultural time frames)

Bitcoin is also an entirely new technology combination that stands to revolutionize the worlds whole financial system and how people transact with each other, and some think it will follow the usual stock-market rules just because it uses seemingly familiar "exchanges" to help it along.

I personally think it will rise, and rise, and rise for at least 5 or 10 years, (possibly in bursts according to media coverage/awareness grows) as mass-adoption gradually happens..

Unless something catastrophic (and very unlikely) happens, such as the governments of the world conducting an all-out media-smear campaign against it war-on-drugs style (possible - even although it will likely fail, just like prohibition and WOD), switch off the internet (yeah right), or start jailing people for using it (yeah right again).

I try not be a cheerleader/fanboi, but Ive been in the Electronics and I.T. industry for 30 years and I havent *ever* seen anything with the potential that this project has to change the world for the better.

Agreed. I'd be willing to make a moderate "investment" if the value of the BTC went below $2.00.  Otherwise I'll just have to love with my 5 BTC and be happy. :/

Yikes, you do realize every fundamental metric (searches, forum traffic, sourceforge download stats, news mentions, etc.) is going parabolic right now? That doesn't necessarily mean the price will go up, but it is promising.

ok.  good luck.

Doesn't sound like a good idea to me. Bitcoin is highly unlikely to ever see $1 again.

I think you'll be buying back the coins at $15-18 

ok, I was waaaaaay wrong with my last call, but I'm going for it again:

The top is immanent.  An ending diagonal pattern has completed or is near completion.  This is, in Elliott Wave parlance, the 5th wave of the 5 wave sequence that started back in October 2010.  This entire move should be retraced with the most probable bottom coming in around 1 btc = $1.

I've liquidated all of my bitcoins and have $25k sitting in Mt. Gox with a 25k btc order at $1 per btc.

Once the rally renews from there, I can retire...wish me luck

Cash out to gold or silver.

we will sell you single 1 ounce silver maple leafs.
http://www.artdesignstore.com/images/mapleleafcoin.jpg

 

That's exactly why speculators provide a valuable service. They smooth out the market and don't let it drop as low as it would have otherwise.