Topic: Call the top - page 9. (Read 14934 times)
Few days ago, I've dreamed of an exact peak number of $479
Just makes me wish I bought a bit more at 142 :S
My thought process was that the Bitcon bubbles were going to get more volatile and more frequent as adoption increased.
It's tough to say; thinking exponentially makes me want to say the bubbles will be of the same relative size (that they'll look the same on the log chart, though of course being far larger in absolute terms), while the historical evidence suggests that the bubbles are actually getting less volatile (2011 bubble was hyper-insane; 2013 was merely epic), though it's true that the recent one was surely blunted prematurely by MtGox failure. Exactly how prematurely I guess we'll never know. It's even possible we're experiencing the continuation of that bubble right now, and it was only resting while the exchanges got their acts together.
I'm also tempted to argue that the stable infrastructure and general stability and "known factor"-ness of Bitcoin will make the bubbles less wild going forward, but that may be falling into fallacious linear thinking about an exponential phenomenon, because as stability increases the stakes also rise, with governments and hedge funds now involved and the financial incentive for infiltration of the dev team or other as-yet unwitnessed and even un-envisaged nasties growing stronger in a likewise exponential fashion.
For those who were around earlier this year, just try lopping a zero off the price (for example: think of $170 as $17), as we have experience with price movements around there. With the caveat that that was an extraordinary run-up in spring, it still provides a kind of upper bound on what can realistically be expected.
This reminds me of busting through $20 back in January with sites set on the ATH at $32. This classic post captures the flavor of that time:
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/p/32931/512906.aspx
This reminds me of busting through $20 back in January with sites set on the ATH at $32. This classic post captures the flavor of that time:
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/p/32931/512906.aspx
Top 500 then hit 200
This sounds about right.
What timescale? This week's rally will surely end soon by having a substantial correction, since nothing goes up that fast, but it might only last a day or a week and could well continue on upward. I'm guessing China will break the floodgates of 1000 yuan soon and then gush higher on sheer excitement at breaking that psychological barrier, dragging the western world with it despite the West's psychological barrier at $200. So on the scale of the next few days it could peak and correct anywhere, while on the scale of the next two weeks or so it might temporarily peak at $220 or $230, supposing China does bust through 1000.
If China really goes nuts after breaking 1000 and rushes up more than 30-40% higher, it could drag MtGox and Bitstamp through the painful memory of the all-time high at $266, which would cause the West to go nuts and we could zig-zag into another crazy global bubble. That's the perfect storm, domino effect scenario.
If China really goes nuts after breaking 1000 and rushes up more than 30-40% higher, it could drag MtGox and Bitstamp through the painful memory of the all-time high at $266, which would cause the West to go nuts and we could zig-zag into another crazy global bubble. That's the perfect storm, domino effect scenario.
Top 500 then hit 200
1000 CNY, 160 on bitstamp, 179 on mt gox
$1337
More important question is what will be the bottom of the next big dip. Hopefully its $100 or less.
We just had $100 a couple weeks ago when silk road shut down. You missed your chance to buy. It's on the way up for now.
More important question is what will be the bottom of the next big dip. Hopefully its $100 or less.
Where's the top of this rally, gentlemen?
$ASDFFJUFCKFUCKFCUKA:LKJFDL:KSJDF0NOOOOOOOOO
Where's the top of this rally, gentlemen?
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