Topic: Calm Before The Storm - page 2. (Read 2443 times)

I'm just watching speculative traders fight for what appears to be a cheesy consensus. I have placed my bets short (bought all the puts money can buy at bitoption.org), not saying the bitcoin will collapse, but i believe we need a deeper dip before we can regain some bullish momentum again. We're dealing with a trust deficit.

@ BitcoinPorn
Yeah. Well that's definitely a value investment outlook. Most people only see the growth in this, which is smart but also risky. When they see it not growing they back out. Value investors should be able to invest in exchange too. I think having a portfolio split in three ways would be effective (mining, exchange - currency and GLBSE, and discretionary spending in bitcoin markets). That way were feeding the entire economy, not just parts of it that will make us money. In the early dollar days they gave Americans dollars to spend. Maybe someone should do that too!

@triox
Haha, I hear you. That's a whole other topic. Take that one to Politics bud. 

I think it's pretty easy to "ignore expert economists". Especially after 2008.

Staring at the charts is making my head hurt, just waiting for the markets to be stable again, and will buy back, good or bad, when TradeHill or Gox comes back up proper.  Still tons of faith in the coin and what it is standing for to know that people will just now stay away from places that gather coin in one place, that whole decentralized part of Bitcoin will be more of a reality for people who are invested in this idea.   Market trading is just for those people, the market itself has people that will be buying and selling even if the coin is down a bit for now.  Because really, it is still worth a lot more than it was not too long ago, where most merchants had their money invested anyways.

tl;dr Fuck charts, market will continue to be a gamble like any market should be, the coin itself will continue based on what it stands for alone.

Is it just me or is everyone else just staring at charts waiting for something to go up or down?

I watch weighted prices because, as time has proven, trusting one source will doom you. Weighted prices are at a 10-day low. Volume is steady due to the catastrophes and interest surrounding it (not to mention people trying to cash out while they can). Major US news sectors and experts have been itching at the chance to give this bitcoin economy a thumbs down; and they're doing it.

Sources:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43464477
http://www.pcworld.com/article/230722/bitcoin_from_success_to_flop_in_record_time.html
http://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Is-the-cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-a-good-idea
http://blogs.forbes.com/timworstall/2011/06/20/so-thats-the-end-of-bitcoin-then/

Overall, my response to this has been:

1. 50% of people believe in the system, 50% came sometime after May to invest money for the purpose of investing money. The entire market is now suffering due to those who want to bail "while they still can."

2. Any person who watches these markets by the minute are only enslaving themselves. I'm not saying not to watch this stuff carefully, but don't starve yourself. It's the minute-by-minute actions that are causing the volatility. The generation of bitcoin is exciting when it's in an elementary stage. One could say it was equally exciting for the euro. Of course the euro developed it's worth at a slower rate. We have social media now so everything catches like wildfire (poor Arizona).

3. I don't think this is the end of the bitcoin. I can't say for certain whether it's a bubble bursting or not though. I doubt any one person's expertise to back up a belief that it's a bubble. I will admit that it's hard to ignore expert economists. If it is a bubble bursting, I think we can see the light in this. After the dot com bust, companies survived and were better for it.


I would recommend to people that watching weighted prices is the smartest thing to do. It's like watching stock indexes like NASDAQ, NYSE, & DOW. It gives an overall view of the market's health. And the market is getting bad right now, but may bounce back up. Even when the highest Ask from last Friday was around $30, the weighted prices never got above $17.50, the price at which Mt Dox crashed.

Good luck everybody!

Coinvestor