Topic: Can 1 satoshi be worth $1 in the future? - page 2. (Read 1720 times)

It's true that it sounds unreasonable, but in various cases there are many true stories that, like you said, are true. In the crypto world there is no such thing as impossible.

Even though it's true that nothing is impossible and the world believes in it, I believe we should always think realistically about things despite that fact I stated in the beginning. Bitcoin has a limited supply, it's true, and its demand keeps increasing, that is true as well, but will that demand make the price go as high as we are talking about here? It doesn't sound possible to me because even if the whole world adopts Bitcoin and the demand increases significantly, the price would still not be able to go that high, in my opinion.

There will always be people who will be willing to sell their Bitcoins for a certain price just to book profits that they are getting, and there will also be bull and bear cycles, which won't let the price just keep going up all the time. So, even if the prices reach that high, as said by others earlier, it will happen after many generations and not very early. And who knows? Maybe something else, much better and superior than Bitcoin, is created in the future.

The more that the BTC price goes up, then more sense it makes to talk about it in terms of satoshis rather than in terms of BTC - especially since it is likely easier for an overwhelming majority of normies to comprehend positive numbers rather than numbers right of the decimal and decimal places... so if bitcoin gets to $100k, then you could get 10 satoshis for 1¢

You are right, we have seen too much unrealistic speculation even though we hope for high prices but talking about speculation must be realistic according to the market potential which can reach that price in the next few years, we should not talk about price speculation per/sat but our current capacity for price speculation per 1 btc, unless the price is $1 million/btc then we can only review the price per sat because the price has exceeded our speculation limit, we hope that the price of bitcoin will soon enter the bullish zone to prove the $100k speculation that has been predicted for several years previously.

Oh gawd Hamphser.. you are getting caught up in nonsense talk about basic math that we already covered many times in this thread.   $1 per sat is $100 million per bitcoin.  $1 million per sat is $0.01 (or 1¢) per sat.  There is no need to imagine in regards to how some of the numbers work out in terms of equivalencies, even if there are a lot of things that we could imagine in order to get from our current price of $37k-ish per BTC to $1 million per BTC (1¢ per sat) or even $100 million per BTC ($1 per sat).


Of course, $1 million per BTC (1¢ per sat) or even $100 million per BTC ($1 per sat) could happen in our wildest dreams, and sure it is way easier to reach 1¢ per satoshi rather than $1 per sat.

So the 1¢ per sat could happen within a year or more realistically in 3 to 10 years and more pessimistically 20 to 50 years from now. 

I personally believe that amongst the best case scenarios for $1 per satoshi would be in the ballpark of 40 to 50 years from now, yet more conservative scenarios, it could even take 120 to 200 years for that kind of a $1 per satoshi scenario to play out.. I am more inclined to think on the lower end of that outer spectrum of 120 years from now but still a long way out and I am not talking about hyper inflated dollars but instead in terms of the value of today's dollars.

No matter what the 1¢ per satoshi scenarios are way closer in reach of the life times of a lot of current forum members, and the $1 per satoshi scenarios might be reachable during the lifetimes of the younger of the forum members yet the kids and/or grandkids of the youngest forum members might NOT still be living for the longer and more pessimistic scenarios...

I have heard that a generation is like 20-30 years, so even if some lives of forum members over lap several (maybe even 8?) generations, the more pessimistic views of might be barely getting $1 per satoshi... though the more I think about it, it seems like for me, that if a kind of natural progression for bitcoin plays out, then a base case of around 100 years for the $1 per satoshi to end up happening, so that would be about 4 generations.  I did make out a chart for this (not trying to put too much supposed credibility on my SOMA^**tm-eddie guess, but I don't want to post it... I might post my chart at a later date.

**Straight out of my ass.

Its not bad on being optimistic but we should really be at least realistic on things basing up on what we are seeing. Yes, Bitcoin does really have the potential but we should really be thinking up on numbers
which are really that something reachable and not really just that too far off or really out of the charts. Why?  If we do speak about $1/sats then imagine on how much 1 Bitcoin price would be?
Its not something that we cant really be able to witness or simply being impossible. There are even those talks about $1M/coin which it is already that too far or almost impossible.
How much more in $1 per sats?

It would be better that you should really be just go only with the flow with its price, dont make yourself that too optimistic or really that expecting on something like
this number on which we know that there would really be no assurance or something that cant happen even in our wildest dreams.

I believe that in the future the price of bitcoin could reach $100 million due to the limited total supply and increasing popularity. In the past Bitcoin reaching $100k was impossible and anyone who said this was considered crazy, but today $100k looks very possible and in fact most people assume that in the next bull the price of Bitcoin will cross $100k. However if we talk about impossibilities, there are many impossibilities that are difficult to answer with current theories, including the impossibility you convey.

Without some kind of context that hardly makes any sense to have dollars serve as a kind of base unit, especially since bitcoins are infinitely divisible, and I would imagine that if 1 satoshi came to be worth $1, then there would have already long before been some adjustments to recognize BTC units smaller than a satoshi, and maybe even 3-6 more digits so instead of 1 BTC having 8 digits there maybe needs to recognize down to 11 or even 14 digits - and surely in lightning there is already recognition for 11 digits, and so it would be a bit of a separate issue to get that number of digits to be recognized on the main chain.  

At some point it seems practical to to be recognizing digits smaller than a satoshi, as some of us had batted around in another forum thread regarding if tail emissions could be a softfork.

many exchanges are already putting fixed fee for bitcoin withdrawal about $25 and not decreasing even when market in bearish is really silly can't imagine how the situation will fare with the fee when 1 satoshi equal 1 dollars imagine paying 1k just for withdrawal simply silly in my opinion, this is the problem with blockchain in general that it couldn't adapt with the price increase since we know from the perspective of investment bitcoin is really good at gaining more and more value overtime but every blockchain is facing the problem about fee considering the ever growing adoption as well.
really hoping that there will be solution towards the fee its not only happening in bitcoin in the bullrun but ethereum and even those lower market capitalization altcoin as well.
it seriously needs solution.

No rated value is impossible as long the volatility of cryptocurrencies is concerned after all... No one ever experienced the value of Bitcoin of from $0.09 to worth thousands of dollars today so I would say it is possible as far the future has much of time ahead but only if we could live to see when they time comes.

This is possible, but miners won't mine if the fee is too low. That's why if you transfer your Bitcoin even if you're using segwit, it will not be process if you only put a small portion of fee. And it will only matter to a small investors or people who cares for $2 or $3, but in whales it doesn't matter. They only cares about the safety and the speed of transactions. $1 fee would be the base fee for Bitcoin but sometimes it will fluctuate.

Hyperinflation is not far from becoming a reality. Constant money printing, wars/geopolitical uncertainty, and the inability to put COVID-19 under control (even though the WHO declared the end of the pandemic) will lead us there faster than you can imagine. People will eventually lose trust in the Fiat money system, paving the way for Bitcoin to take over the world by storm.

A mass adoption of BTC during a global economic crisis will eventually "pump" market prices to the moon. Should the USD become extremely-weak, 1 sat will be equal to $1 (which means BTC will reach a price of $100m). It's only a matter of time before this happens. I'd keep buying and holding BTC just in case. Who knows if you'll strike it rich someday?

Indeed, the ability to include fees of less than 1 satoshi per byte has really proven to be a significant update because it has enabled users to set very low fees for their transactions, for a fact we know that this has really come in handy and have been quite helpful to bitcoiners, especially during times the network is experiencing a low congestion. But we must not be ignorant of the fact that transaction fees are influenced by market forces, meaning If the demand for block space becomes high, for examples, in situations when we experience a high transaction volume. In a case like this, tx fees are likely to rise above the usual amount because there's now a competition among bitcoiners to facilitate the success of their transactions. And it's also vise versa, tx fees also tends to lower when the number of transactions in the block are fewer than normal.

Anyone considering to buy bitcoin based on possible upside scenarios should attempt to be somewhat realistic in terms of timeline and probabilities, and surely these are quite speculative type plays.

Without getting into dollar debasement so much, yet I would think that the best of scenarios would take 50 years for $1 to equal 1 sat (that means more or less in today's dollar value), but the more likely timelines would be 100 years or more, and so there could be a variety of lesser scenarios that would have to play out before getting to those higher numbers, and I would think that even the lesser scenarios justify getting some kind of a position in bitcoin, whether you are on the whimpy side, such as 1% of your investment portfolio in bitcoin or if you are on the more aggressive side and put 25% of your investment portfolio into bitcoin.    For newbie investors, they might not have any other assets besides bitcoin and dollars in the beginning, so they have to build up to a level in which it becomes justifiable to diversify into other assets, maybe after you get 25% to 50% of your annual income invested into bitcoin, you might want to start to consider whether diversification might play to your advantage, and that does not mean investing into shitcoins since they are largely already correlated to bitcoin but with merely more risk due to their tending to either be scams or centralized or to have various other vulnerabilities.. such as nonsense ideas of proof of stake having value when it is merely just replicating various traditional ways of controlling capital by stakers.. so there is no real value in figuring out what kinds of games that those POS shitcoiners might play by investing into them, unless you are into gambling rather than investing.

$1 million (2x gold's market cap) to $10 million (20x gold's market cap) in 1-5 cycles seems more than reasonable; however, getting from $10 million to $100 million may well take a lot longer.. that would likely be the more difficult part..  By the way it also seems that bitcoin is 1000x or more better than gold, but $100 million per bitcoin is ONLY around 200x of gold's current marketcap, and so there might be some questions regarding how much value gold might retain if bitcoin sucks up its current monetary value and gold is thereafter relegated more towards its utility, industrial and/or jewelry value.  Those kinds of valuations likely take a long time to work out in the market and in the consciousness of people.


Sloppy thinking when you are describing a billion worth of money.. which should show that unit bias can sometimes work on people even though people figure it out.


Yep.. It is probably already a good thing to start thinking in terms of satoshis, and how many satoshis can you stack up on a regular basis in order to prepare for various future scenarios in which you might want to start to spend your satoshis, well that is if you believe that there might not be some less valuable money that you might want to spend first... You might not want to spend them for a while, but you may well want to build them up while you can still get right around 2,770 satoshis for every dollar (BTC price $36,100) that you are currently spending, and yes, how many you can get for a dollar is likely going to continue to become less and less and less, until maybe one day you might ONLY be able to get 1 satoshi for every dollar you spend. 

Not that long ago (even in late 2020) many of us could have gotten more than 10,000 satoshis for a dollar (BTC $10k and lower).  Many of us longer term bitcoiners likely remember times when we could get more than 100,000 satoshis for a dollar (BTC $1k and lower), and some of us maybe even remember when we could get 400,000 satoshis for a dollar (BTC $250), and yeah those levels of BTC prices are gone, and may even be gone forever, and it even could be possible that we will never be able to get more than 3,333 satoshis for a dollar (BTC prices at $30k or lower) ever again... it is possible that might happen, but surely it cannot be known if BTC prices will drop again from here or not..


Bitcoin has not been lower than $10 since early 2013, and sure there were various up and down BTC price waves in 2011 and 2012, yet it seemed that bitcoin was even a greater niche than it is currently, so it might not even be very fair to be comparing the current BTC market to the 2011 and 2012 BTC markets, even though surely the 2011 and 2012 markets were parts of bitcoin's history and growth that show how it got from there to here with increasing levels of sophistication, larger and larger players, more places to buy and sell bitcoin, and more financial instruments.. which surely aspects of speculation and financialization would be expected to occur in any maturing and growing asset class, and we can also think in terms of bitcoin's 7 networking effects as outlined by Trace Mayer..   

Sad on that part , you are holding Billion worth of money  but cannot even afford to feed your family for single meal?

This is also what I do believe that once 1 satoshi reached to value as 1 dollar? people won't need to dream of having whole bitcoin instead holding satoshi will make us rich already .

When the price of bitcoin already reached 10$ that is actually the sign of how long it will go, because there is no even a penny in its value back then.

You're too pessimistic about what happens to the US dollar, you have to remember that it's still the uncontested global reserve currency and I believe that it's never relinquishing it's place anytime soon despite what many believes, but I do love the dream that bitcoin will be worth $100 million in the near future, I just hope that if that ever happens, I am still hodling a fairly good amount so I can finally get to my retirement and just live the rest of my days doing what I love and travel where I want to be, this kind of speculation makes me want to buy bitcoin and store it somewhere and hope to hold on to it for as long that dream becomes a reality.

Several forum members made similar comments in this thread, and sure there is nothing wrong with NOT presuming something to happen until it happens, and so in some sense there is a certain amount of value that comes with dealing with actual facts rather than speculation, yet at the same time, if any of us want to attempt to consider what bitcoin is as an asset class, and perhaps consider the value of the asset in which we are investing, it likely is good to also consider bitcoin's potential in terms of its addressable market.

With a variety of cash and cash-like products, derivatives, bonds, equities, properties and commodities, in today's dollars there is already an addressable market that is somewhere in the ballpark of $900 trillion, and we may as well just round it up to $1 quadrillion and work with that kind of a number, which largely means that if BTC prices were $55k, then it holds around $1trillion in market cap, and bitcoin would have to go up 1,000x from $55k in order to be at the $1quadrillion mark.. which is absorbing all of its addressable market.. that is the monetary value that is held in all of the above asset classes that I described above.. and yeah, if bitcoin were holding right around $1 quadrillion in value, a satoshi would be worth just less than $0.50, so it is nearly half way towards the $1 per satoshi mark that OP presented and is being described throughout this thread.

It is probably not exactly scientific to figure out how much monetary value might be held in some kinds of financial instruments and/or assets versus if they might have some other value such as utility, industrial or other kinds of consumptive value.  Another thing to consider is that any paradigm shifting asset, whether we are talking about bitcoin or anything else like electricity, the refrigerator, television, the personal computer, the internet, the automobile, steel, the plane, the telephone (and cell phone) and surely several others.
 
These kinds of inventions, interventions and/or discoveries ended up contributing to the total value that was even available in the world by creating more value than they were removing because of their introduction and subsequent wide-spread use and efficiency and productivity and reduction of costs, so in that sense, more value can frequently be created from various kinds of paradigm-shifting inventions/discoveries.

So, it may well be the case that todays addressable market of $900 Trillion to $1 quadrillion could fairly easily double or triple merely from what becomes possible in the future because of something like bitcoin and as might also end up being complemented by other inventions/discoveries/ways of interacting that might come on their own or come in connection with bitcoin... Maybe some of the AI technologies could end up playing into these productivity and value creation matters too.

So if the total value production increases beyond $1 quadrillion to maybe even several Quadrillion dollars, bitcoin may well end up absorbing some of that extra value in terms of places in which value is stored and even transacted.. and so then that makes $1 per satoshi to be more than reasonable - even in today's dollars and presuming some increased advances in technology, productivity and efficiencies and also presuming that bitcoin is currently the most sound of monies ever known to mankind...so sure it could take 50 years to 200 years to make it to such point in which the satoshi crosses over $1.

By the way, I do believe that there is a lack of rigorous thinking if we are presuming the debasing of the dollar in order to get to our numbers, and sure the dollar is going to continue to debase, and the dollar has likely been put into a kind of inevitable downward trajectory that is seeming to become worse and worse and who knows how long that it can last, and maybe it is already not very good to be measuring bitcoin in terms of dollars, yet yeah the increased debasement of the dollar will likely accelerate one satoshi being valued at a dollar or more, but it is quite doubtful to be a necessary condition in order for bitcoin to reach such valuations in real terms.

I suppose another problem that faces any of us is the value destruction that may well end up happening from the downfall of the dollar and perhaps some of the instability that likely would end up resulting from some or that already happening and continuing to happen, but let's not get too sloppy in our thinking in terms of suggesting that bitcoin's value ONLY comes from the likely, the ongoing and ever-worsening  and inevitable demise of the dollar.


It seems to me that anyone just starting into bitcoin would need to invest something close to $200 per week, if s/he expects to reasonably attempt to get to 1 Bitcoin in 10 years.  Sure if we were to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, that would result in $5,200 invested in a year, and $52k invested in 10 years, which does not seem to be enough to get to a whole bitcoin, and even doubling the amount to $200 per week would end up amounting to $104k invested in 10 years, and maybe there would be a better chance of getting to a whole bitcoin... perhaps? perhaps?  

So seriously attempting to get to 1 bitcoin in 10 years, could also have some better luck with attempts at front loading the investment, but each and every one of us should realize that we need to be careful when it comes to overleveraging conduct when it comes to bitcoin, because if a bitcoin is a very good investment so long as you hold it and you increase your stash, it could end up being a bad investment if you end up losing it or you overinvest so much that you are not able to hang onto your bitcoin through the whole period and you end up selling too much too soon.. and at a time that is not of your complete choosing.


I will agree with you that it is not good to get too far ahead of ourselves, and so we should not presume some outcome to happen before it happens, but there still seems to be advantages to skate to where the puck is going rather than where it is at.  But, hey, whatever, you skate how you like.  No problem.  If you don't want to think about it, then so be it, yet if bitcoin ends up blowing past $100k and you don't have any kind of plan for how you are going to deal with it, then you may well end up making some of the wrong choices...so even if you don't consider beyond $100k to be very likely, if you are out of bitcoin when (or if?) the BTC price reaches $200k, because you sold half of yours at $93k, and half of the remaining at $126k and then the remaining at $138k, then you may well be in a world of hurt if you have not really planned sufficiently for some set of events that you believe to be of low likelihood... or maybe you conjecture some events to be of lower likelihood than they actually are.

$1 sat means $100 million bitcoin.

Sure this will probably happen in the distant future, when $1 is barely worth anything. When future $1 is worth like 5 cents in today's money the Bitcoin price may be $100 million with $1 sats.

Also don't forget you can already put in tx fees of less than 1 sat per byte, which was a crucial update for keeping tx fees lower as the price of Bitcoin increases to very high numbers in the future. Because of that the price of Bitcoin won't really affect tx fees, and because $1 per sat isn't happening without a ton of inflation, even when it does happen that doesn't mean fees will automatically cost a lot.

Why do many people like to dream and live in illusion while the goal of 100k$ bitcoin has not yet been achieved? It's confusing. That's right, no matter how good bitcoin is, how big the potential is, and how passionate we are, we still need to be realistic because we are investing with our own money. Dreaming and being too delusional will not bring us better results.

I wouldn't rush to make any exaggerated predictions about bitcoin. I will wait for bitcoin to touch $100k and then make my next prediction based on the situation.

High fees won't be a problem if developers make satoshis fractional. This means BTC will more divisible than what it is right now. It's likely we'll get to see 1/2 a satoshi, 1/4 a satoshi, and so on. I wouldn't say "stablecoins will become the option", when they're utterly-centralized. Trusting them would be no different than trusting banks with your money. They might become the CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) everyone is talking about.

With how fast Bitcoin has gained traction since its inception, I'm pretty sure it'll become a "force to reckon with" in the future. Even if we're not alive by the time 1 sat = $1, at least we'll be remembered as early adopters of the cryptocurrency. Our descendants will be the ones who'll witness such an event. Who knows what will be of Bitcoin decades from now?