Yes I agree that the halving will be a launching point for another big bull market run, but it will take at least a year for an increase that will turn exponential.
I expect another big exponential increase that will match the ones from 2013 and 2017.
Topic: Can Bitcoin Really Hit $1 Million? Demirors Warns Halving May Have Zero Impact (Read 317 times)
January 02, 2020, 09:54:08 AM
January 01, 2020, 09:33:52 PM
the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.
let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.
However, what would be your argument for her prediction that investors', assuming she is talking about the institutional investors, preference towards bitcoin derivatived instead of bitcoin?let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.
Her argument is that no pump will occur because all money will be in cryptoderivatives.
we don't need institutional investors for price to rise, especially considering how illiquid the market is. bitcoin's extremely limited supply and retail investor demand alone can spark another parabolic bubble IMO.
also, physically backed and delivered derivatives have BTC underlying them, so if institutions are bullish on BTC, strong demand in these derivatives markets (like bakkt) will drive spot prices upwards.
However, bitcoin market is more regulated today than before. It might be harder for the pumpers to pump it similar to the Mtgox bot pump and the Bitfinex Tether printing pump hehehe.
December 26, 2019, 11:48:29 PM
yes I also think maybe next year's halving day will be different from the previous halving day. and in my opinion there is a possibility that bitcoin won't pump after being reduced by half. because the current condition of the crypto market is very different from the condition of the crypto market in the previous year. so we shouldn't expect too much about halving day bitcoin.
December 26, 2019, 11:01:56 PM
In recent days I've heard dozens of speculations about a halving that will drive bitcoin's price up. People seem to be putting a lot of hope into halving, which in theory is quite possible.
However, I still believe that the price of bitcoin depends on sharks and investors more than on the supply. Clearly all past price increases have had the hands of sharks manipulating the market. I think the price of bitcoin increased primarily because of sharks, not because bitcoin halved.
However, I still believe that the price of bitcoin depends on sharks and investors more than on the supply. Clearly all past price increases have had the hands of sharks manipulating the market. I think the price of bitcoin increased primarily because of sharks, not because bitcoin halved.
December 26, 2019, 10:54:42 PM
Every day I can hear hundreds of predictions about the price of bitcoin, many people say the price will rise but many people say the price will go down. The halving may have an impact on the price of bitcoin but in my opinion it will have a small impact. Perhaps the price of bitcoin will go up a bit, but the fact that bitcoin can reach $ 1 million is a far cry.
People should do their own research before investing, they should not believe in any predictions.
Meltem is very beautiful.
People should do their own research before investing, they should not believe in any predictions.
Meltem is very beautiful.
December 26, 2019, 10:54:30 PM
the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.
let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.
However, what would be your argument for her prediction that investors', assuming she is talking about the institutional investors, preference towards bitcoin derivatived instead of bitcoin?let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.
Her argument is that no pump will occur because all money will be in cryptoderivatives.
we don't need institutional investors for price to rise, especially considering how illiquid the market is. bitcoin's extremely limited supply and retail investor demand alone can spark another parabolic bubble IMO.
also, physically backed and delivered derivatives have BTC underlying them, so if institutions are bullish on BTC, strong demand in these derivatives markets (like bakkt) will drive spot prices upwards.
December 26, 2019, 10:19:20 PM
Quote
“There is a very real possibility the price of Bitcoin does not go up after halving. For the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for Bitcoin. Most firms looking to speculate on Bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying.
A topic that’s been studied in other commodities markets is how pricing is set. Bitcoin is, arguably, a digital commodity. Normally, producers set the price of a commodity (classic S = D = P from Econ 101) when derivatives take off, producers lose the right to set prices…
A topic that’s been studied in other commodities markets is how pricing is set. Bitcoin is, arguably, a digital commodity. Normally, producers set the price of a commodity (classic S = D = P from Econ 101) when derivatives take off, producers lose the right to set prices…
Quote
Bloomberg Markets editor Joe Weisenthal is also skeptical of stock-to-flow predictions. In a recent newsletter, he argues that Bitcoin’s fixed supply is well-known and already priced in.
the contrarian in me is thrilled to see these bearish opinions. it seems like lots of people are beginning to doubt the halving narrative. this is a good thing: bull markets are built on skepticism and pessimism. i'd be a lot more worried right now if everyone was bullish and hopeful.
let the bears keep shorting bitcoin 5 months from the halving. see what happens.
However, what would be your argument for her prediction that investors', assuming she is talking about the institutional investors, preference towards bitcoin derivatived instead of bitcoin?
Her argument is that no pump will occur because all money will be in cryptoderivatives.
December 26, 2019, 05:56:16 PM
I've read somewhere that either a total of 16 BTC have left Bakkt or you can't withdraw it at all. Anything could be going in there and I wonder if the people using it care about that.
They probably don't. No more than they do in other ICE, COMEX, etc. markets.
Do you think the lack of withdrawals indicates traders are accumulating BTC but not withdrawing it from Bakkt's custody? Or is it because contracts are being rolled forward or not physically settled, indicating there is very little BTC accumulation happening?
I assume based on this that Bakkt traders can withdraw BTC if they want to.
December 26, 2019, 05:31:01 PM
This is what I am afraid of. I had a great hope when the ETH hard fork hype was live, everyone in crypto was very excited to see a very high price for Ethereum, but that upgrade did not help at all, Ethereum lost its track and it seems price may collapse again like 2018.
There have been many hard forks that Ethereum went through, which one exactly are you referring to?
In short, it's great to get more features and code improvements forked in, but when the demand for the actual asset isn't increasing but decreasing, there isn't much that you can hope for. The most you can hope for is a buy the rumor sell the news type of event where people dump just before or just after the fork.
I seriously wonder how much of Ether's current price is held up by those having confidence in the POS transition. If this is in fact a driving factor for demand, which it very well could be (who doesn't like trustless interest and getting paid out in the native asset?), and the price is still tanking, the price would have been well under $100 if there wasn't that POS demand.
December 26, 2019, 05:21:09 PM
Don't you guys have women where you're from?
What is womens?
and bitcoins are incredibly difficult to borrow because of their extreme scarcity. 
that leads me to wonder whether physically settled derivative markets (like bakkt) will actually have enough volume and liquidity to dominate spot market pricing, like we see in the gold market and other commodity markets. and cash settled markets don't matter at all---they are essentially CFD traders making side bets about the spot market.
that leads me to wonder whether physically settled derivative markets (like bakkt) will actually have enough volume and liquidity to dominate spot market pricing, like we see in the gold market and other commodity markets. and cash settled markets don't matter at all---they are essentially CFD traders making side bets about the spot market.
I've read somewhere that either a total of 16 BTC have left Bakkt or you can't withdraw it at all. Anything could be going in there and I wonder if the people using it care about that.
December 26, 2019, 05:10:42 PM
Ps. Indeed she is gorgeous, I was staring at her photo for about a minute before posting lol
There are much less flattering photos of her online
Don't you guys have women where you're from?
I think that it will have an impact just not when everybody is expecting it. Previous halvings created pumps at or after the event. There's no rule that the price will increase a month after or 2 months before. It can happen 6 months later when people have already given up on the idea.
December 26, 2019, 04:39:26 PM
The one thing she's missing is that Bitcoin is an end product in itself and one with purpose for real people in day to day life. I can't buy my monthly octopus porn fix or flee Syria with my wealth intact with an option.
i also don't think she's accounting for bitcoin's extreme scarcity. there is all this expectation of massive derivative market liquidity, but this fundamentally requires borrowed bitcoins to underlie the derivative markets.
and bitcoins are incredibly difficult to borrow because of their extreme scarcity.
that leads me to wonder whether physically settled derivative markets (like bakkt) will actually have enough volume and liquidity to dominate spot market pricing, like we see in the gold market and other commodity markets. and cash settled markets don't matter at all---they are essentially CFD traders making side bets about the spot market.
December 26, 2019, 01:32:14 PM
i think bitcoin can reach those high level 500k usd and even 1 million usd next years ; because everything is possible ; who think in the past halving that prices can jump above 10000 usd per btc. the dream now is real and prices jump from low level to high level
There is a huge difference between previous halving and the one which will take place next year as bitcoin was still alien thing for most of the people before the last Bull run so we didn't have as many whales investing into bitcoin like we have now and there were no price manipulation that time due to lack of whales and corporate investments but now market is filled with whales and corporates who manipulates the price for their benefits. I would be happy even if bitcoin hits $10k post halving.
The last bullrun was that there was no BAKKT yet and other platforms offering the same which makes BTC price go up due to the less supply coming into the market. This time these platforms can fake the supply in their platform, there by they can create on their own without bothering to actually have something in the blockchain to list. But we'll find out after the halving because we are yet to know all these.
December 26, 2019, 01:26:58 PM
Zero impact or Huge impact.These are only 2 things would happen on that halving event but i dont really mind or care too much on what would happen yet price movement
will always vary on the demand on that certain time.I wont be surprised if FOMO buyers will accumulate before halving event because we cant really remove on ones mind to have
those hopes and expectations that there would be might an another bull run.
$1M?Is this a McAfee thread? Just joking. hehe
will always vary on the demand on that certain time.I wont be surprised if FOMO buyers will accumulate before halving event because we cant really remove on ones mind to have
those hopes and expectations that there would be might an another bull run.
$1M?Is this a McAfee thread? Just joking. hehe
December 26, 2019, 01:10:30 PM
i think bitcoin can reach those high level 500k usd and even 1 million usd next years ; because everything is possible ; who think in the past halving that prices can jump above 10000 usd per btc. the dream now is real and prices jump from low level to high level
There is a huge difference between previous halving and the one which will take place next year as bitcoin was still alien thing for most of the people before the last Bull run so we didn't have as many whales investing into bitcoin like we have now and there were no price manipulation that time due to lack of whales and corporate investments but now market is filled with whales and corporates who manipulates the price for their benefits. I would be happy even if bitcoin hits $10k post halving.
December 26, 2019, 12:54:25 PM
There's a yes and there's a no. It just remains a possibility until we see it for ourselves. Just judging from the fact that every halving brought about an ATH for BTC proves that it could. As for it having zero impact, yes it could happen, but without any prior examples in the past, humans would believe it to be close to impossible. Plus, bearish seasons are normal when the halving occurs, and only after a half a year or so would the bullish runs occur, which shows that normally, the market readjusts itself to the current supply and demand in the halving itself.
December 26, 2019, 11:52:56 AM
i think bitcoin can reach those high level 500k usd and even 1 million usd next years ; because everything is possible ; who think in the past halving that prices can jump above 10000 usd per btc. the dream now is real and prices jump from low level to high level
December 26, 2019, 11:36:33 AM
This is what I am afraid of. I had a great hope when the ETH hard fork hype was live, everyone in crypto was very excited to see a very high price for Ethereum, but that upgrade did not help at all, Ethereum lost its track and it seems price may collapse again like 2018. So, no one knows Bitcoin halving will bring positive growth in Bitcoin price, the previous halving worked well, but this time I feel afraid and confuse that this halving may not be helpful enough, however, let's see and stay positive.
December 26, 2019, 11:33:27 AM
The one thing she's missing is that Bitcoin is an end product in itself and one with purpose for real people in day to day life. I can't buy my monthly octopus porn fix or flee Syria with my wealth intact with an option.
Almost all other commodities are an inaccessible abstraction at the time their derivatives trade - soybean oil, copper, palm oil, orange juice, rapeseed. You have these back end markets and then it winds up in your phone or emerging from your urethra. There's nothing in between. Of course their values are decided by end user demand and usage but they'd be much weirder markets if normaltons started meddling directly in them for their own needs.
Most Wall St types seem to have a vast blind spot about this.
Almost all other commodities are an inaccessible abstraction at the time their derivatives trade - soybean oil, copper, palm oil, orange juice, rapeseed. You have these back end markets and then it winds up in your phone or emerging from your urethra. There's nothing in between. Of course their values are decided by end user demand and usage but they'd be much weirder markets if normaltons started meddling directly in them for their own needs.
Most Wall St types seem to have a vast blind spot about this.
December 26, 2019, 11:33:12 AM
Bitcoin halving may have zero impact is possible if we judge how the market is moving these days. I have had a wild guess that the price stabilizing at around $7,000 was caused by the investors who's trying to accumulate more Bitcoin, and that's the reason why Bitcoin is holding on to that range, without them the price should've gone below $5,000 level?
Another thing is, I've look through the past 2 halvings. It seems that the price is gradually increasing from a 6 months period before the halving, but this time is different because Bitcoin is struggling to escape the 4 digit price.
Ps. Indeed she is gorgeous, I was staring at her photo for about a minute before posting lol
Another thing is, I've look through the past 2 halvings. It seems that the price is gradually increasing from a 6 months period before the halving, but this time is different because Bitcoin is struggling to escape the 4 digit price.
Ps. Indeed she is gorgeous, I was staring at her photo for about a minute before posting lol
I can still remember the last halving when it was starting to read and learn through this forum and starting to trade little by little. I know just three to four people who know or have heard of bitcoin. It's a whole lot different then and i think that means we shouldn't be expecting the same effect that next year's halving will have on btc.
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